sharetrader
Page 713 of 970 FirstFirst ... 213613663703709710711712713714715716717723763813 ... LastLast
Results 7,121 to 7,130 of 9698
  1. #7121
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    No amount of corporate spin can sugar coat this...its a poor result. The SP has a 5 as the first number in the not too distant future. You read it from me first.
    Great short and double down on OCA in my opinion but I don't short so I'll leave that to someone else.
    Posted 10 January and sure enough now starts with a 5.

    Hi artemis - All anecdotal to the best of my knowledge. SUM directors mentioned at the annual meeting last year construction cost inflation is running at around 10% per annum in Auckland and with building 450 units per annum I would think they'd know.

    A certain large company that I can't name pulled out of a major land deal with one of my clients just before Christmas ostensibly I believe because they are under pressure with very slow sales on their other finished developments. I'm trustee on that trust and I've been talking to very senior people in one of the major commercial agencies and they are worried. Chinese land banking is a thing of the past, they're simply not in the market anymore. Market ostensibly changed direction in a big way when the foreign buyer regulations changed on 22 October.
    Another very senior guy with a different Australian owned agency told me some developers are being told by their banks to rent units out to get some cash flow to service the debt because sales have slowed down. Developers were told to do this "or else", apparently.

    The speed of the decline in Sydney and Melbourne has increased lately with price declines of 1.4% (nearly 17% per annum) in January for Sydney and 1.3% for Melbourne. ASB economists think there a strong correlation between Sydney and Auckland prices with a 6-9 month time lag. Declines in Auckland are coming, I am sure of that. Its much harder to get a mortgage now, much, much harder and that's having an effect as well.
    Any change to taxation rules including ring fencing of tax losses and / or a CGT will only exacerbate the size of future falls but I think Cindy and her Kindy want that
    so they can trumpet they are doing their bit for the "have nots" They are going to send the economy into a recession they way they are going, you read it from me first.
    Last edited by Beagle; 05-02-2019 at 08:29 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #7122
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    346

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Posted 10 January and sure enough now starts with a 5.
    ... and back to 6.

  3. #7123
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by oldtech View Post
    ... and back to 6.
    All the proof you ever need that every dog has its day. I was right for one day lol
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #7124
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    346

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    All the proof you ever need that every dog has its day. I was right for one day lol

  5. #7125
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Very impressive set of numbers out today

    I’d even say generally more robust numbers than some other recently released sector reports. I think some will be ‘surprised’ at the $98m underlying earnings number

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...947/295456.pdf
    Last edited by winner69; 22-02-2019 at 07:46 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #7126
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    Thanks Winner. I reckon the market is in for a pleasant surprise on this one. I know that's against the superior wisdom on this forum but I just can't see it going off the rails this fast in such a target rich environment backed up with great history
    A pleasant surprise it was eh
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #7127
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    10,993

    Default

    sales volumes starting a new trend? will be able to tell after next yr if the trend is down or stalled. as i mentioned with oca margins are under pressure in the retirement sector and summerset has re affirmed this today
    one step ahead of the herd

  8. #7128
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    346

    Default

    I am unsure how to interpret these results, would be keen to hear from those with better insight than me (which is most people on this forum ...)

    Underlying profit well up, by 21%. BUT BUT BUT ... net profit before and after tax well down (10%/11%).

    Looking at the appendix, this seems to be due to a lower figure for "fair value movement of investment property"; IE 209.9 vs 234.5. Is this basically saying the property market has slowed, therefore the increase in value on the property is lower?

    Other points I see:

    Sales of occupation rights down by 6%
    Two newly acquired sites announced today:

    - Milldale: 6.0 hectare site in a new suburb on the Hibiscus Coast
    - Waikanae: 25.5 hectare site close to Waikanae Beach and golf club (estimated village size of 8.0 hectares)

    Not sure how I feel about the prospects for Milldale - it's located just a little further from the shops than I would have thought suitable for a retirement village.

  9. #7129
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Posts
    713

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by oldtech View Post
    I am unsure how to interpret these results, would be keen to hear from those with better insight than me (which is most people on this forum ...)

    Underlying profit well up, by 21%. BUT BUT BUT ... net profit before and after tax well down (10%/11%).

    Looking at the appendix, this seems to be due to a lower figure for "fair value movement of investment property"; IE 209.9 vs 234.5. Is this basically saying the property market has slowed, therefore the increase in value on the property is lower?

    Other points I see:

    Sales of occupation rights down by 6%
    Two newly acquired sites announced today:

    - Milldale: 6.0 hectare site in a new suburb on the Hibiscus Coast
    - Waikanae: 25.5 hectare site close to Waikanae Beach and golf club (estimated village size of 8.0 hectares)

    Not sure how I feel about the prospects for Milldale - it's located just a little further from the shops than I would have thought suitable for a retirement village.
    Oltech, this is a fundamental thing that is really important to understand in this sector. It's a good question that you need to get sorted.
    Basically "net profit" includes current property valuations.
    "Underlying profit" is the profit of the actual business operation with property value gains or losses stripped out.
    In this sector the only number I pay attention to is the underlying. Otherwise any company has the potential to do a "bob jones"(I presume from "Oldtech" , you were around in the eighties) , where all you need to do is revalue everything up on paper and say how well things are going.
    Last edited by Maverick; 22-02-2019 at 08:37 AM.

  10. #7130
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Kerikeri
    Posts
    2,468

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    Oltech, this is a fundamental thing that is really important to understand in this sector. It's a good question that you need to get sorted.
    Basically "net profit" includes current property valuations.
    "Underlying profit" is the profit of the actual business operation with property value gains or losses stripped out.
    In this sector the only number I pay attention to is the underlying. Otherwise any company has the potential to do a "bob jones"(I presume from "Oldtech" , you were around in the eighties) , where all you need to do is revalue everything up on paper and say how well things are going.
    Thanks Maverick. I was not totally clear either.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •