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  1. #6661
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by James108 View Post
    To assume this years development margin will continue indefinitely is a bit reckless imo. !
    Which is why they have advised they arent assuming this

  2. #6662
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    I was responding to people saying Summerset were being conservative with their guidance.

  3. #6663
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by James108 View Post
    To assume this years development margin will continue indefinitely is a bit reckless imo. The cross cycle development margin could be estimated by looking at Ryman. One would assume that the current development margin is still affected by the large increase in house prices (indeed house prices are still rising overall). There must be a lag of 1-3 years between house price change flowing into development margin (e.g. all the land they are developing now would have been bought at a 'steal' several years ago).

    That said Summerset is my largest holding, I have modeled a decrease in development margin (albeit model is out of date by a year) and I think current price is around fair value. Always happy to pay a fair price for a great company!
    +1...well said.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #6664
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Julian needs not worry about the property market ...for a while

    July numbers pretty strong .....and record prices in some areas
    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/5...ices-gain.html


    And Westpac changed from gloom to saying there will be resurgence in the the property market in early 2019 seeing RBNZ keeping interest rates down


    Hey beagle ....how about $115m to $120m forecast now.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #6665
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    FWIW downgrade to hold from Craigs,
    T/P increased to $8.10 from $7.70
    Now trading at 2 x NTA in line wit historic rate 2.2
    Lift in build rate baked in to s/p

  6. #6666
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Julian needs not worry about the property market ...for a while

    July numbers pretty strong .....and record prices in some areas
    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/5...ices-gain.html


    And Westpac changed from gloom to saying there will be resurgence in the the property market in early 2019 seeing RBNZ keeping interest rates down


    Hey beagle ....how about $115m to $120m forecast now.
    LOL. Market overall is tracking pretty well isn't it !
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #6667
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    Reverting deeper into that channel aye winner, now 57.5% Lol.

  8. #6668
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Reverting deeper into that channel aye winner, now 57.5% Lol.
    SUM only have 3rd quarter sales early October but RYM have half year profit announcement in November ....that could be the killer blow and reaffirm that hypothesis good and proper.

    Completely irrational and monsense eh
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #6669
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    SUM only have 3rd quarter sales early October but RYM have half year profit announcement in November ....that could be the killer blow and reaffirm that hypothesis good and proper.

    Completely irrational and monsense eh
    HaHa, 6 years of correct nonsense must be irrational aye.

  10. #6670
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    Hi Guys,
    Firstly a holder of both RYM and SUM, but if one grows at +-25% and the other at +-15%, surely at some point the share price will meet...
    Other than one building a large number more units which will mean they have more "product" to sell. What else will keep the share price from meeting?

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