I find this more than a little curious ?...any thoughts anyone ?
I maintain it's a distribution play, as commented upon a few times before. As you say, can't wait for Macca to finish, but given there's still a fair slice of the pie to digest, I'm not holding my breath for the funds to take their foot off their throat, nor am I holding actually, but I will again in due course, of course
JMO
Oops, I am talking OCA on SUM. but then, so is everyone else
At least NEW sales in Q4 were higher than pcp. The tide has turned ...the downtrend has finished ...whew.
Delivered 454 new units ,.thats good
Main thing is Julian is pleased - Summerset CEO Julian Cook said he was pleased with sales over the final quarter, and the good levels of sales being achieved across the country. The fourth quarter of 2018 saw us achieve our highest new sales in the last two years, and was the second highest quarter ever for the Group, Mr Cook said.
At least NEW sales in Q4 were higher than pcp. The tide has turned ...the downtrend has finished ...whew.
Delivered 454 new units ,.thats good
Main thing is Julian is pleased - Summerset CEO Julian Cook said he was pleased with sales over the final quarter, and the good levels of sales being achieved across the country. “The fourth quarter of 2018 saw us achieve our highest new sales in the last two years, and was the second highest quarter ever for the Group,” Mr Cook said.
Pretty impressive numbers - but still less than last year, where they sold a total of 682 units (382 new and 300 re-sale) vs 640 this year (339 new and 301 re-sale).
Particularly considering that they "deliver" 450 units per year - the number of empty units is clearly increasing ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Pretty impressive numbers - but still less than last year, where they sold a total of 682 units (382 new and 300 re-sale) vs 640 this year (339 new and 301 re-sale).
Particularly considering that they "deliver" 450 units per year - the number of empty units is clearly increasing ...
With 40 less sales in 2018 than 2017 (6% less) hard to see them making that $100m Underlying Earnings I hoped for now. I think if it was going to be a boomer result Julian couldn’t have resisted mentioning it.
My guess now - $85m to $90m (v $82m pcp)
No worries though ....heaps of finished units just awaiting the paper work.....isn’t that julia means when he says ‘minimal uncontracted stock available’ ...all sold
F19 the boomer year
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
Resales ostensibly unchanged despite the company being 450 units bigger than last year.
2017 New build exceeded new sales by 68 units
2018 New Build exceeded new sales by 115 units (Anyone seeing a pattern here ?)
Why would they bother to increase the build rate with so much unsold stock ? Is this the third year in a row that they will target the same build rate of 450 ?
How is this growth per se ?
I would think underlying profit will be ~ flat compared to last year. Seeing these sales numbers explains why they didn't issue a profit forecast last year. No point forecasting if profit is barely changed is there.
Julian confident they will sell their inventory in 2019....same story I heard at the annual meeting about unsold inventory left over from 2017 build. What happened to their confidence they would sell the unsold 2017 units.
Bottom line, unsold inventory has risen very sharply for the second year in a row and is now going to start to really hurt profit growth.
Units too expensive ? People having trouble selling their Auckland homes to buy in ? People demanding fixed fees for life but SUM think they know better and prospects simply shopping elsewhere ?
Lots of questions. Good thing is its not a complete disaster so should be no rub off on other retirement companies that are growing strongly like OCA.
Every year they take pride at the annual meeting in telling shareholders SUM is N.Z. fastest growing retirement company...wonder what they'll say this year ?
Disc: Not holding and not looking to buy back in.
Last edited by Beagle; 10-01-2019 at 09:40 AM.
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Originally Posted by winner69
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