sharetrader
Page 475 of 476 FirstFirst ... 375425465471472473474475476 LastLast
Results 7,111 to 7,125 of 7127
  1. #7111
    Veteran novice
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    6,407

    Default

    I think that Maverick's pretty close to the mark in implying that we've talked ourselves into over-optimistically expecting the "grey tsunami" into delivering an ever - accelerating level of volume and profitability for the retirement village industry. I'm happy with the result and hold a few SUM - but I favour OCA a tad more and hold more of them!


  2. #7112
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    11,854

    Default

    No amount of corporate spin can sugar coat this...its a poor result. The SP has a 5 as the first number in the not too distant future. You read it from me first.
    Great short and double down on OCA in my opinion but I don't short so I'll leave that to someone else.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #7113
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Location
    Napier
    Posts
    694

    Default

    There seems to be a lot of silence here as the price keeps going up for now while OCA stands still. I may reduce my shareholding, that is because I am heavy in retirement stocks and not that the company is performing well or not well. I am invested in both SUM and OCA
    Last edited by Ggcc; 16-01-2019 at 03:16 PM.

  4. #7114
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    156

    Default

    I'm wary of reading too much into one or two days of price rises ... from Dec 21 to Dec 28 the SP rose from 6.15 to 6.48, then promptly turned back and fell to 6.11.

    My daughter has a chunk of money invested in SUM so I would love for the trend to turn ... just not convinced that it is.

  5. #7115
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    11,854

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by oldtech View Post
    I'm wary of reading too much into one or two days of price rises ... from Dec 21 to Dec 28 the SP rose from 6.15 to 6.48, then promptly turned back and fell to 6.11.

    My daughter has a chunk of money invested in SUM so I would love for the trend to turn ... just not convinced that it is.
    RYM been behaving like a good traders stock lately too.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  6. #7116
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    22,429

    Default

    Maybe this is why SUM sales not that robust

    DECEMBER HOUSE SALES FALL TO SEVEN-YEAR LOW

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c...n-year-lowhtml
    “Imagination is more important than knowledge.”

  7. #7117
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    11,854

    Default

    You beat me to it mate and not a surprise to me at all. I was involved as a trustee in a major farm sale close to Auckland for development in the last quarter of last year...extended contract that contained many complex commercial clauses (running to over 20 pages) including the usual due diligence. Can't name the parties for obvious reasons but the buyer pulled the pin in late December and I believe this is because many of their other developments are experiencing very, very slow sales. I heard from another client late last year, (the general manager of one of the major Australian owned franchises) that many developers in Auckland are really struggling to sell down their properties and some banks are getting titchy and requiring them to rent out houses to get some cash flow to service their debt !

    No surprise to me that SUM are struggling to sell down their Auckland units and this problem won't go away any time soon in my opinion. They will also be struggling to contain rampant development cost inflation in the Auckland area as well, along with the struggle every other Auckland developer has to try and find subby's who have some clue of what they're doing at anything other than a usurious price. Its not a good game to be in at the moment and more developers will go to the wall in 2019, you mark my words.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #7118
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Christchurch
    Posts
    92

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    You beat me to it mate and not a surprise to me at all. I was involved as a trustee in a major farm sale close to Auckland for development in the last quarter of last year...extended contract that contained many complex commercial clauses (running to over 20 pages) including the usual due diligence. Can't name the parties for obvious reasons but the buyer pulled the pin in late December and I believe this is because many of their other developments are experiencing very, very slow sales. I heard from another client late last year, (the general manager of one of the major Australian owned franchises) that many developers in Auckland are really struggling to sell down their properties and some banks are getting titchy and requiring them to rent out houses to get some cash flow to service their debt !

    No surprise to me that SUM are struggling to sell down their Auckland units and this problem won't go away any time soon in my opinion. They will also be struggling to contain rampant development cost inflation in the Auckland area as well, along with the struggle every other Auckland developer has to try and find subby's who have some clue of what they're doing at anything other than a usurious price. Its not a good game to be in at the moment and more developers will go to the wall in 2019, you mark my words.
    Ties in with what i am seeing and hearing from other builders in Christchurch..

  9. #7119
    Trying to get outta here
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    5,858

    Default

    She's sub $6, getting reverted back to fair value.
    Last edited by couta1; 05-02-2019 at 01:48 PM.

  10. #7120
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    11,854

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    She's sub $6, getting reverted back to fair value.
    Yes I noticed the other day it was brushing up against the top of the 50-60% band of RYM's price and sure enough, as sure as night follows day its reverted back to the middle of that range yet again.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #7121
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Wellington, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    847

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    .... Its not a good game to be in at the moment and more developers will go to the wall in 2019, you mark my words.
    Hi Beagle! I think you are correct about slow sales in Auckland (and elsewhere) and problems ahead for developers. But is there data?

    I am putting together a submission to the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee concerning the proposal to ring-fence rental property losses (part of the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2019–20, GST Offshore Supplier Registration, and Remedial Matters) Bill).

    One of the points I want to make is that traditionally residential property investors have bought many of the new build apartments, though more likely middle and low end. It is obvious to anyone living in these blocks that most are tenants. (Friend of mine lives in a 90 unit mid range complex in Wellington. 2 are owner occupied.)

    If these investors know they are going to have to dip into their tax paid income rather than offset rental losses against other income, they will think twice about buying. Yep, some developers will be in trouble.

    I would like to point the Select Committee to relevant data, but where? Anyone have any thoughts? I will suggest they do their own research, but will they?

  12. #7122
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand.
    Posts
    5,736

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by artemis View Post
    I will suggest they do their own research, but will they?
    No.

    They rely first on their policy position. They then fall back a bit on advice from their Ministry who are tasked with supporting the Minster. Treasury will provide some other info. Select Committees are just about giving the appearance of a transparent and open government - but in fact they arent.

  13. #7123
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Wellington, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    847

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    No.

    They rely first on their policy position. They then fall back a bit on advice from their Ministry who are tasked with supporting the Minster. Treasury will provide some other info. Select Committees are just about giving the appearance of a transparent and open government - but in fact they arent.
    Yeah, probably. This in today's Herald makes no mention of the impact on the construction sector but it does say supply and demand are broadly in balance. No shortage then ....

    "Market indications are that a significant number of new listings will hit the market in February further increasing the already strong level of buyer choice," said Thompson.


    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12200986

  14. #7124
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    11,854

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    No amount of corporate spin can sugar coat this...its a poor result. The SP has a 5 as the first number in the not too distant future. You read it from me first.
    Great short and double down on OCA in my opinion but I don't short so I'll leave that to someone else.
    Posted 10 January and sure enough now starts with a 5.

    Hi artemis - All anecdotal to the best of my knowledge. SUM directors mentioned at the annual meeting last year construction cost inflation is running at around 10% per annum in Auckland and with building 450 units per annum I would think they'd know.

    A certain large company that I can't name pulled out of a major land deal with one of my clients just before Christmas ostensibly I believe because they are under pressure with very slow sales on their other finished developments. I'm trustee on that trust and I've been talking to very senior people in one of the major commercial agencies and they are worried. Chinese land banking is a thing of the past, they're simply not in the market anymore. Market ostensibly changed direction in a big way when the foreign buyer regulations changed on 22 October.
    Another very senior guy with a different Australian owned agency told me some developers are being told by their banks to rent units out to get some cash flow to service the debt because sales have slowed down. Developers were told to do this "or else", apparently.

    The speed of the decline in Sydney and Melbourne has increased lately with price declines of 1.4% (nearly 17% per annum) in January for Sydney and 1.3% for Melbourne. ASB economists think there a strong correlation between Sydney and Auckland prices with a 6-9 month time lag. Declines in Auckland are coming, I am sure of that. Its much harder to get a mortgage now, much, much harder and that's having an effect as well.
    Any change to taxation rules including ring fencing of tax losses and / or a CGT will only exacerbate the size of future falls but I think Cindy and her Kindy want that
    so they can trumpet they are doing their bit for the "have nots" They are going to send the economy into a recession they way they are going, you read it from me first.
    Last edited by Beagle; 05-02-2019 at 08:29 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  15. #7125
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    156

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Posted 10 January and sure enough now starts with a 5.
    ... and back to 6.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •