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  1. #8721
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I stopped listening to forbar analysts about a decade ago. Some of them wouldn't know preferred stock from livestock.

    The company itself has said past super high growth rates will not be sustained going forward at last year's annual meeting. Be a good chap and try and keep up
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-02-2020 at 09:38 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #8722
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    Result tomorrow..

  3. #8723
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    Result tomorrow..
    ...and what an awesomely stunning result it’s going to be

    Can’t wait.
    Last edited by winner69; 24-02-2020 at 07:47 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #8724
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
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    I`ve got an technical question that I`m hoping the accountant guru`s among us , Beagle, Mogul, Winner etc might know the answer....

    Firstly, I`m confident with all of my SUM workings and still see SUM around 111m underlying NP tomorrow. That`s a dramatic fall in historical growth to 13% and if this proves true then this will be a big fat red flag for me that this will be the new growth rate form here on until they increase (and also sell) their current build rate.

    Back to the question.. the area I`m confused on is their depreciation,

    Up until 2015 there was no depreciation/amortization (D/A) then FY14-0m...FY15-3.7m...FY16-3.7m..FY17-4.6m...FY18-6.7m

    So, why does D/A go from nothing to rapidly rising when in fact there new sales have been falling slightly towards the end of this time frame?

    I know OCA`s D/A is also rapidly rising but they have been spending big on computer systems which depreciates real fast. So wondering if SUM has a similar thing going on or whether accounting methods has changed recently. (i.e IFRS16, whatever that is?)

    I`m not motivated enough to look into it (the numbers are too small and its a non cash expense anyway) but by any chance is there a simple answer someone already has the answer to?

  5. #8725
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Sorry mate I have no quick answers for you and have been flat out today.
    I will review SUM's result as best as time allows tomorrow and get deep inside the numbers later this week or early next week when time allows.
    SUM did well to hold up today in a market down ~ 2% so hopefully that augers well for tomorrow.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #8726
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    Things like roads and community centres are capitalised (and not included in underlying profit, so margin for a total village is less than reported for individual units) so there should definitely be some depreciation. I’m not sure why it wasn’t there before 2014.

  7. #8727
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
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    Thanks Beagle, James and Mogul for responding.
    Obvious to me know now, FY14 depreciation of 0, was a non-number I chucked in there in my earlier days to fill the original spreadsheets (I had a real job back then). Now I see the overall depreciation is in fact a predictable ratio to assets where one would expect.

    Thanks again for helping
    Last edited by Maverick; 25-02-2020 at 06:36 AM.

  8. #8728
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    Dow down 1000p points...no matter how good is the result....the SP will be also squashed!

  9. #8729
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Nearly all us were out in out in a forecasts of underlying earnings

    But heck they made $175m real profit ..pretty good that is

    But no worries as Julian says ”Annual growth in underlying profit has averaged 38% since the company listed on the NZX in November 2011.”

    Good of him to remind us
    Last edited by winner69; 25-02-2020 at 07:37 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #8730
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Nearly all us were out in out in a forecasts

    But no worries as Julian says ”Annual growth in underlying profit has averaged 38% since the company listed on the NZX in November 2011.”

    Good of him to remind us
    NPAT down yet again winner...

    FY20 build rate only 400 units - where was the talk of the 600+ gone?

    Development margin falling as well...

    Available new sales uncontracted stock as a % of portfolio increasing for the 4th consecutive year (not a good track record to have) Resales also up on pcp

    Trying to distract us with talk of Australian growth yet the growth story in NZ is faltering big time... no worries nice of him to talk about the past as you point out winner (might as well start reminiscing on Kodak, blockbuster and Lehman brothers while we're at it - talking about the past didn't seem to help them much)
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 25-02-2020 at 07:46 AM.

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