Posted about 8 months ago... share price was 25% or so higher than it is today... really did hold up very well for another month and a half.
Given the 'we are slowing down big time' light has been flashing on SUM for a while now, it was mystifying to see it bounce in early Feb... the writing seemed to be on the wall for months prior, and this has just confirmed it.
Residents need a reason to go to an ever increasing number and ever flasher villages... the 'that's a nice unit in a nice place' no longer cuts it... they need the full english breakfast and sum listed operators just don't do a good job at the continuum of care side of things in all their villages, while others do (and will be far more resilient in a housing slow down)
Not even a month ago ARV was singing a near totally different tune to SUM today: both with solid pricing and settlements... at over $6, holding up pretty well really.
The 'holding up pretty well really' was clearly not going to last... if it gets into the low-mid $5, I could be come sumwhat interested... most of the risks (slower sales, higher leverage, building more than can be sold, poor continuum of care, just to name a few) should then be priced in.
Then again, the experts at Forsyth still saying its all good... $7.35 buy price
Then again, the same guys say ARV is worth north of $1.60 for a couple years now so maybe not so experty
Last edited by trader_jackson; 08-04-2019 at 02:58 PM.
Ladies and Gentlemen. The Couta1 relativity theorem is THE GOLD STANDARD and has stood the test of time for well over half a decade. 55% price relativity to RYM is the average according to the author of this foolproof theory and therefore the stock has a current fair value of $6.63. Forget about TA, FA quarterly results and everything else lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Ladies and Gentlemen. The Couta1 relativity theorem is THE GOLD STANDARD and has stood the test of time for well over half a decade. 55% price relativity to RYM is the average according to the author of this foolproof theory and therefore the stock has a current fair value of $6.63. Forget about TA, FA quarterly results and everything else lol
The average since listing (on monthly closes) is SUM being 50% of RYM and essentially has ranged from 40% to 60%
Has been like this for ages and probably will be like this for ages to come.
As posted the other day .....the red line has gone down a fraction eh
So versus the ‘mean’ at the moment SUM is slightly undervalued v RYM ......but significantly undervalued v OCA ....no that’s funny
Last edited by winner69; 08-04-2019 at 03:33 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Yep 50% is the benchmark line but over the last 2-3 yrs the average has been around 55% so using that to cheer up the discouraged.
And cheer ourselves up at the same time lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by trader_jackson
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