"In Auckland, the number of properties sold in March fell by -18.2% year-on-year (from 2,451 to 2,006) – the lowest for the month of March since 2008." Need to keep our eye on Auckland as thats where it starts.
Starting?
Looks like the number of sales has been declining for the last four years
Not my fault no labels on x-axis ...REINZ dont think them necessary
Last edited by winner69; 12-04-2019 at 10:15 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Thanks for the link.
So.. Underlying eps for 2018 was 43.7 cps
Average broker forecast for FY19 47.58 cps (growth 9%) - Forward PE 12
Average broker forecast for FY20 54.05 cps (growth 14%).
So.....after 7 years of vastly stronger (more than double) underlying earnings growth than RYM, forecast average growth is declining to RYM level's but SUM trades on ~ half the forward PE. SUM things continue to be nonsensical. Maybe after they have a full decade of growth SUM people will wake up and smell the coffee.
Obviously the "world is ending" in this so called cooling property market lol.
Last edited by Beagle; 12-04-2019 at 10:30 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Thanks for the link.
So.. Underlying eps for 2018 was 43.7 cps
Average broker forecast for FY19 47.58 cps (growth 9%) - Forward PE 12
Average broker forecast for FY20 54.05 cps (growth 14%).
So.....after 7 years of vastly stronger (more than double) underlying earnings growth than RYM, forecast average growth is declining to RYM level's but SUM trades on ~ half the forward PE. SUM things continue to be nonsensical. Maybe after they have a full decade of growth SUM people will wake up and smell the coffee.
Obviously the "world is ending" in this so called cooling property market lol.
It's all about the Gold Standard benchmark Beagle, nothing else matters remember.Lol
Looks like the number of sales has been declining for the last four years
Not my fault no labels on x-axis ...REINZ dont think them necessary
No ones fault W69 a bit slack ehh that x axis.
Auckland is the leading indicator of any price decline etc thats where it starts.Year on year prob more significant then month by month imo. Some surprisingly good stats there too.
It's all about the Gold Standard benchmark Beagle, nothing else matters remember.Lol
The Couta1 relativity theorem...the GOLD standard Yeap, we're right towards the bottom of that range and I am happy to back my own analysis which says BUY, so how could we possibly both be wrong lol
Last edited by Beagle; 12-04-2019 at 10:51 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
No ones fault W69 a bit slack ehh that x axis.
Auckland is the leading indicator of any price decline etc thats where it starts.Year on year prob more significant then month by month imo. Some surprisingly good stats there too.
In many ways (economically at least) Auckland follows the rest of the country (often not a leading indicator). Theory goes that it takes a while for the real money in NZ (generated from the land eh c) to filter through to Auckland
Aucklanders are so up themselves they can’t see that. They hardly manufacture / make anything and essentially is the most unproductive part of the country. The Auckland economy is driven by services (like making coffee and hamburgers for other Aucklanders and spending time down the casino) and that is only after they have wasted hours sitting in traffic jams.
Jeez but they think they are the centre of the universe but don’t realise they only account for about 30% of the country’s economic activity. Never mind let them live in the dream world.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Amazing - if the SP keeps rocketing up with the current velocity (SP $5.80 as I type), we might be back at a $6 handle next week (or later today );
Just looked through the last handful of pages on this thread - and there are a lot of really negative and fear mongering posts (I won't call names) accompanying the recent spike downwards. Some read like doomsday is nigh.
Just wondering whether the people who sold out at or slightly above $5.50 are still happy with their decision? Did the fear mongering on threads like this have anything to do with their decision?
For all of us (but particularly for any newbies) an outstanding lesson to take anything said here with a ton of salt ... and yes, while all of us make mistakes - some are particularly good in turning any market jitter into a share market crash!
Ah yes - and obviously the famous Buffett saying "Be greedy when others are fearful" still applies.
Obviously (for the traders amongst us) the current uptrend still might turn into a "dead cat bounce", but for investors I think the fundamentals look pretty convincing at the current price.
Discl: happy holder;
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Amazing - if the SP keeps rocketing up with the current velocity (SP $5.80 as I type), we might be back at a $6 handle next week (or later today );
Just looked through the last handful of pages on this thread - and there are a lot of really negative and fear mongering posts (I won't call names) accompanying the recent spike downwards. Some read like doomsday is nigh.
Just wondering whether the people who sold out at or slightly above $5.50 are still happy with their decision? Did the fear mongering on threads like this have anything to do with their decision?
For all of us (but particularly for any newbies) an outstanding lesson to take anything said here with a ton of salt ... and yes, while all of us make mistakes - some are particularly good in turning any market jitter into a share market crash!
Ah yes - and obviously the famous Buffett saying "Be greedy when others are fearful" still applies.
Obviously (for the traders amongst us) the current uptrend still might turn into a "dead cat bounce", but for investors I think the fundamentals look pretty convincing at the current price.
Discl: happy holder;
Good post. A number of posters have been posting their opinion on the future, (in an extremely assertive manner) as though this is already a confirmed historical fact but they've gone very quiet lately.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Amazing - if the SP keeps rocketing up with the current velocity (SP $5.80 as I type), we might be back at a $6 handle next week (or later today );
Just looked through the last handful of pages on this thread - and there are a lot of really negative and fear mongering posts (I won't call names) accompanying the recent spike downwards. Some read like doomsday is nigh.
Just wondering whether the people who sold out at or slightly above $5.50 are still happy with their decision? Did the fear mongering on threads like this have anything to do with their decision?
For all of us (but particularly for any newbies) an outstanding lesson to take anything said here with a ton of salt ... and yes, while all of us make mistakes - some are particularly good in turning any market jitter into a share market crash!
Ah yes - and obviously the famous Buffett saying "Be greedy when others are fearful" still applies.
Obviously (for the traders amongst us) the current uptrend still might turn into a "dead cat bounce", but for investors I think the fundamentals look pretty convincing at the current price.
Discl: happy holder;
The fundamentals haven’t really changed of late ..still quite good.
If you are so upset about those who do the ‘fearmongering’ and putting out ‘negative stuff’ you should talk to the man himself ...Julian Cook started it all with his ‘flat market’ talk.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
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Yeap, we're right towards the bottom of that range and I am happy to back my own analysis which says BUY, so how could we possibly both be wrong lol
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