SUM - Summerset Group

[Joshuatree]

i hear stuff all the time from people in the front line and its because of , minimum staff , fill in staff and a few staff that plain avoid some duties.
You have to wonder if that old lady wasn't even washed!

Thats useful stuff moka.We didn't have clue that info was even available when looking at care homes.

[Brain]

Thanks Moka - greatly appreciated

[bull....]

https://www.health.govt.nz/your-heal...ion-and-audits
“Rest home certification and audits
If you or a family member is planning to move to a rest home – or is currently living in one – you’ll want to be sure it provides the best quality care possible.
All rest homes and aged residential care facilities are certified and audited to ensure they:

• provide safe, appropriate care for their residents
• meet the standards set out in the Health and Disability Services (Safety) Act 2001.

The Ministry publishes audit reports for all rest homes in our database of certified rest home providers

handy piece of info , unfortunately most places probably know in advance a audit is coming and put on a good show. better to talk to people at the coalface

[Beagle]

Its an average announcement given the share price has really rallied from undervalued to fair value verging on overvalued.

Its at a forward PE of 16.9 which has this FY result already priced in (which doesn't come out until Feb 2019) unless investors buy in that the growth will keep going at a higher price. Either that or the new/resales that were supposed to pick up in 2H come to fruition and the share price keeps growing causing an updated guidance.

Shares have enjoyed a very good run from an incredibly undervalued $4.60 in November. I still see them at > $9 in a years time but the delta over $7.60 isn't huge so this one may not suit short term investors. The key to understanding the value on a current year PE of 17 is two fold
1. The market average PE is just north of 20 so this is well under market average
2. The growth rate at circa 25% is well and truly above market average and we have the long term demographic tailwinds supporting that growth going forward.
There are cheaper PE stocks on the NZX but are they growing at the same rate and is their growth sustained by long term demographics ?
Classic long term hold if you ask me, (and its certainly not expensive on a relative basis to the market or its peers considering this stocks track record of growth) but each to their own... For what its worth my view is there's SUM stocks, (like this and RYM to name just two) you just throw in the bottom draw for retirement and be very glad in the due course of time you did...

Food for thought. Is it really expensive when RYM, (which has consistently grown considerably slower ever since SUM listed 6 1/2 years ago) is on a forward PE of >25 ? I understand brand value and have a few RYM myself but the numbers suggest SUM is still good value and better value than RYM.

[couta1]

Yet RYM have just hit an all time high, perception is everything Mr Beagle. PS-Only a few % away now from reversion to the mean putting SUM back into the 50-60% band.

[Beagle]

759 / 1240 = 61.2%...I'm clinging on, (like a sick dog clinging on to its bone) to my theory that its the eps numbers that really count mate, (as a bean counter what other strategy would you possibly expect) but I do have insurance for a rainy day just in case I'm wrong, (SUM RYM shares) ...not enough insurance for a trip to Auckland Islands though so you might have to let me off with a beer on the Queenstown slopes.

[couta1]

759 / 1240 = 61.2%...I'm clinging on, (like a sick dog clinging on to its bone) to my theory that its the eps numbers that really count mate, (as a bean counter what other strategy would you possibly expect) but I do have insurance for a rainy day just in case I'm wrong, (SUM RYM shares) ...not enough insurance for a trip to Auckland Islands though so you might have to let me off with a beer on the Queenstown slopes.

HaHa I like that creative accounting there mate, how about we use the RYM high and not just the SUM one, so now we have 759/1250 =60.72%. Anyway I'm also feeling a bit off colour so why argue over bone fragments.

[Beagle]

HaHa I like that creative accounting there mate, how about we use the RYM high and not just the SUM one, so now we have 759/1250 =60.72%. Anyway I'm also feeling a bit off colour so why argue over bone fragments.

I reckon you should have another look at the sums mate and get with the program. When you do you'll find 60-75% relativity is the new normal

[James108]

Couta1, while reversion to the mean is an important principle, if it always held then nothing would ever change over the long term!

The entropy of the universe is always increasing after all!

[Nasi Goreng]

Couta1, while reversion to the mean is an important principle, if it always held then nothing would ever change over the long term!

The entropy of the universe is always increasing after all!

That sounds pretty hippy man. But it got me thinking about Elliot Wave and Fibonacci... maybe the correct mean is 61.8% and we have been missing it all this time.