SUM - Summerset Group

[Maverick]

Very unlikely. New sales have disappointed for 6 quarters now...more than enough for any seasoned investor to ask, is this a trend ?
.......yet chose not to give any profit guidance for FY18, unlike both previous years...that's got to be a worry and I would be fretting if I was a shareholder.

Do you recon that the fact they haven't upgraded their forecast this year is because they are only obliged to notify the NZSX of upgrades using their NPAT result rather than the underlying profit figures? (which is the number we tend to be concerned with in this forum.)
I can fully understand their NPAT not increasing much, which would not be a concern to me.
Maybe tomorrow the great mystery will be revealed?

[Beagle]

I see where you are coming from mate but I don't think that has anything to do with it. Fact is to the best of my recollection they have not at any stage in 2018 had an official 2018 profit forecast in the market for the year so their requirement to update doesn't apply. I hope the fact that they didn't issue one isn't as worrisome as it appears at face value. Maybe they're just being conservative this year and will surprise everyone ?

[winner69]

5

Do you recon that the fact they haven't upgraded their forecast this year is because they are only obliged to notify the NZSX of upgrades using their NPAT result rather than the underlying profit figures? (which is the number we tend to be concerned with in this forum.)
I can fully understand their NPAT not increasing much, which would not be a concern to me.
Maybe tomorrow the great mystery will be revealed?

When SUM do issue guidances it is for underlying profit (with a note that NPAT is more difficult to forecast etc etc). They did provide a H1 guidance last year.

If they do 700 sales in total I reckon underlying profit will be over $100m plus ...plenty of past years gains to be realised.

[Maverick]

Thanks Winner. I reckon the market is in for a pleasant surprise on this one. I know that's against the superior wisdom on this forum but I just can't see it going off the rails this fast in such a target rich environment backed up with great history

[winner69]

Thanks Winner. I reckon the market is in for a pleasant surprise on this one. I know that's against the superior wisdom on this forum but I just can't see it going off the rails this fast in such a target rich environment backed up with great history

Agree ....$100m plus underlying profit on the cards. Not too bad compared to last years $82m

[Beagle]

Thanks Winner. I reckon the market is in for a pleasant surprise on this one. I know that's against the superior wisdom on this forum but I just can't see it going off the rails this fast in such a target rich environment backed up with great history

Okay, I'll play "Goose". Hope its $110m+ as that'll light the afterburner on OCA

[artemis]

Summerset #5 on the top 200 residential builders list. All the listed retirement village companies are high on the list. SUM not far behind #1 Ryman with similar number and value of projects.

Interesting to see the average value of projects. Some are obviously apartment blocks.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=12175472

[Maverick]

Okay, I'll play "Goose". Hope its $110m+ as that'll light the afterburner on OCA

...ohhhh ... do behave

[winner69]

Okay, I'll play "Goose". Hope its $110m+ as that'll light the afterburner on OCA

Conversely if it’s a ‘shocker’ and only $90m odd there is bound to be an ‘aftershock’ with the OCA share price tumbling under the buck mark

[Beagle]

Conversely if it’s a ‘shocker’ and only $90m odd there is bound to be an ‘aftershock’ with the OCA share price tumbling under the buck mark

Different business model's mate. Very different.