Beagle ....build rate and sales dont make such sense ...esp when Julian always give the impression that they sell pretty quickly after completion (like they will sell in the next quarter statements)
I think Julian is getting too loose with the truth these days
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Beagle ....build rate and sales dont make such sense ...esp when Julian always give the impression that they sell pretty quickly after completion (like they will sell in the next quarter statements)
I think Julian is getting too loose with the truth these days
I can't see professional investors and institutions being happy with the numbers or the narrative once they've had a good look at it.
Delivered implies practical completion and issuance of code of compliance. RYM presell the vast majority of their units. One wonders why the 133 units Julian says were delivered in December were not sold and new entrants moved in or at least half of them ? Are they playing a little loose with what "delivered" means or does no one want all these new units ? New steam powered abacus has officially had a hissy fit and tells me SUM's don't seem to add up ?
Maybe Julian gives some more colour around this stock situation with the annual result but until then...
Last edited by Beagle; 10-01-2019 at 09:57 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Beagle ....build rate and sales dont make such sense ...esp when Julian always give the impression that they sell pretty quickly after completion (like they will sell in the next quarter statements)
I think Julian is getting too loose with the truth these days
Now don't you think you guys are being too harsh? The result is perfectly acceptable to me, I`m very happy with it, for sustained, orderly growth for countless years ahead.
Julian points out 133 of the new homes were delivered in December. I`m picking that in the past with your frothing market up there people were more inclined to pre-buy something "off the plans". But these "cooler" days your average buying style has returned to "lets go and walk through it first" , hence the new lag in sales and need for empty inventory.
All the other reasons suggested (on this forum) for slow resales are all fixable if required so I`m not ready at all to ditch this company. I still think 100m underlying profit is still on the cards.
You are not alone - they may be shy of 100m but I find the results acceptable. It was better than I was expecting to be honest. May be the tortoise but in the long run she'll be ok
Considering the dramatic changes generally going on in the world - an increase in Q4 new sales is a good result. Q4 shows a 5.7% increase compared to pcp. The 2018 year overall was held back by lower Q1 and Q3.
Fixed fees for life, similar in a way to level life insurance premiums, are not always the best outcome for either customer or company.
I think that Maverick's pretty close to the mark in implying that we've talked ourselves into over-optimistically expecting the "grey tsunami" into delivering an ever - accelerating level of volume and profitability for the retirement village industry. I'm happy with the result and hold a few SUM - but I favour OCA a tad more and hold more of them!
No amount of corporate spin can sugar coat this...its a poor result. The SP has a 5 as the first number in the not too distant future. You read it from me first.
Great short and double down on OCA in my opinion but I don't short so I'll leave that to someone else.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
There seems to be a lot of silence here as the price keeps going up for now while OCA stands still. I may reduce my shareholding, that is because I am heavy in retirement stocks and not that the company is performing well or not well. I am invested in both SUM and OCA
Dont see OCA dropping now so get in quick at the current prices IMHO
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by winner69
Bookmarks