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  1. #4981
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    interesting to arrive and find all the TA discussion which I hadnt seen before drawing this chart.
    Two bullish gartleys are drawn. The vicinity of the purple line is strong support /resistance
    I'd like to see confirmation of a turn at this point , but if it happens there is good bullish potential.

    SUM18-6-2017.jpg
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #4982
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jantar View Post
    BlackPeter is absolutely right. If TA were the way to go then the market would collapse.
    Beware of the part-argument....Lets add another part....If FA were the way to go then the market would collapse.....

    What do I mean?....Simple logic...If all traders were of one make-up and only used one discipline whether it is FA, TA, Contrarian, Momentum, tea leaves, whatever they would all want to buy in at the same time creating buying chaos and very sharp movement up into overpriced territory (supply/demand).. ditto in reverse...Volatility to the max, or if no-one cared, boredom to the max..

    Now lets be sensible guys this never happens in a free market apart from the rare panics...We are dealing with a marketplace..In the short and medium term FA can be worthless as sentiment rules..In the long term FA is very valuable as it can either confirm earlier negative sentiment was correct (company going to the dogs) or confirm earlier negative sentiment was misplaced (e.g AIR last year)...Share investors may be buying shares in a company but they have to realise they are also buying into a marketplace...The market place dictates and it can ruin you..e.g A FA disciple buying DIL at a high price deciding to ride out a bad bear cycle knowing that eventually the price will reflect the favourable forward FA, only to see it bought out and de-listed from the market...ditto investing in Frucor as along term "superannution" buy and hold forever, the market delisted it and you the shareholder had no say in the matter so much for that B&H strategy....The marketplace is made up of all sorts of people with differing ideals,attitudes, personal strengths and weaknesses,temperament, and beliefs, some have moral attitudes and will never buy SKC or RAK some will never buy cyclical stocks e.g AIR.....TA discipline ain't tea leaves or the holy grail of knowing everything.. it just measures (and uses tools to analyse) the sentiment of all the people within the marketplace at specific times from the past up to the last trading moment of present day..Like FA TA does not know the future as it is impossible to collect and analyse data that doesn't yet exist..but we all love to predict the future using our "expert" knowledge and it doesn't matter if we are FAers, TAers or believers of groundhogs, we all love to share our opinions, debate about it and shake around our crystal balls..It's us that makes up the marketplace (and these forums)...May it continue for centuries to come..

    So today, what does all this mean .....TA says market sentiment towards SUM sucks at the moment.....that is all......
    Last edited by Hoop; 18-06-2017 at 08:04 PM.

  3. #4983
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    Yeah or until the bots takeover
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 18-06-2017 at 08:53 PM.

  4. #4984
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Beware of the part-argument....Lets add another part....If FA were the way to go then the market would collapse.....

    What do I mean?....Simple logic...If all traders were of one make-up and only used one discipline whether it is FA, TA, Contrarian, Momentum, tea leaves, whatever they would all want to buy in at the same time creating buying chaos and very sharp movement up into overpriced territory (supply/demand).. ditto in reverse...Volatility to the max, or if no-one cared, boredom to the max..

    Now lets be sensible guys this never happens in a free market apart from the rare panics...We are dealing with a marketplace..In the short and medium term FA can be worthless as sentiment rules..In the long term FA is very valuable as it can either confirm earlier negative sentiment was correct (company going to the dogs) or confirm earlier negative sentiment was misplaced (e.g AIR last year)...Share investors may be buying shares in a company but they have to realise they are also buying into a marketplace...The market place dictates and it can ruin you..e.g A FA disciple buying DIL at a high price deciding to ride out a bad bear cycle knowing that eventually the price will reflect the favourable forward FA, only to see it bought out and de-listed from the market...ditto investing in Frucor as along term "superannution" buy and hold forever, the market delisted it and you the shareholder had no say in the matter so much for that B&H strategy....The marketplace is made up of all sorts of people with differing ideals,attitudes, personal strengths and weaknesses,temperament, and beliefs, some have moral attitudes and will never buy SKC or RAK some will never buy cyclical stocks e.g AIR.....TA discipline ain't tea leaves or the holy grail of knowing everything.. it just measures (and uses tools to analyse) the sentiment of all the people within the marketplace at specific times from the past up to the last trading moment of present day..Like FA TA does not know the future as it is impossible to collect and analyse data that doesn't yet exist..but we all love to predict the future using our "expert" knowledge and it doesn't matter if we are FAers, TAers or believers of groundhogs, we all love to share our opinions, debate about it and shake around our crystal balls..It's us that makes up the marketplace (and these forums)...May it continue for centuries to come..

    So today, what does all this mean .....TA says market sentiment towards SUM sucks at the moment.....that is all......
    Great post Hoop thanks

  5. #4985
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    Yes ,a great few posts of late Hoop - Thank you
    Would add to your reputation if I could, but seems have to spread it around a bit more first!

  6. #4986
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    Last week we had index rebalancing and we saw consistent downward pressure on SUM as index tracking funds reduced their holding during the week. Following closely and looking for the right time to double down.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  7. #4987
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Last week we had index rebalancing and we saw consistent downward pressure on SUM as index tracking funds reduced their holding during the week. Following closely and looking for the right time to double down.
    Why don't you just triple down mate, so we can both have equal sized holdings.

  8. #4988
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    Roger you are now Beagle... how a few weeks change so much. yet so little.
    On another note... I love these prices SUM one or two coming my way.
    Still see it dropping a little further, yet how little is always hard to guess.

    It's like the seasons, the leaves are falling, share prices are mostly going down... she'll be right mates

  9. #4989
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    Quote Originally Posted by Food4Thought View Post
    Roger you are now Beagle... how a few weeks change so much. yet so little.
    On another note... I love these prices SUM one or two coming my way.
    Still see it dropping a little further, yet how little is always hard to guess.

    It's like the seasons, the leaves are falling, share prices are mostly going down... she'll be right mates
    No need to guess, just wait for the tide to turn. There'll be sum good buying there in due course.

    NB. I promise not to use that corny "sum" again!


  10. #4990
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    Quote Originally Posted by Food4Thought View Post
    Roger you are now Beagle... how a few weeks change so much. yet so little.
    On another note... I love these prices SUM one or two coming my way.
    Still see it dropping a little further, yet how little is always hard to guess.

    It's like the seasons, the leaves are falling, share prices are mostly going down... she'll be right mates
    Nice to know if there is a reason... or sentiment rules the day..So Roger is now Beagle...right that fills in the picture...

  11. #4991
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    we all love to share our opinions, debate about it and shake around our crystal balls..It's us that makes up the marketplace (and these forums)...May it continue for centuries to come..

    So today, what does all this mean .....TA says market sentiment towards SUM sucks at the moment.....that is all......
    I'm not so sure. In terms of PRZ its looking pretty positive.

    This is why I hate the TA vs FA argument as its just too binary and doesnt allow for the various methods under each broad category.
    Last edited by peat; 19-06-2017 at 10:51 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  12. #4992
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    I'm in , another pattern on a smaller scale has tipped me.

    SummersetHrly19-06-2017.JPG
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  13. #4993
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    Care to explain that chart peat, its meaningless to me except the two wings i can see, lift off?

  14. #4994
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Care to explain that chart peat, its meaningless to me except the two wings i can see, lift off?
    My take would be resistance line at 4.77 and support line at 4.66. The resistance at 4.77 may be a tougher hurdle than the support at 4.66 which if it starts heading that way will likely be a rather weak support. A break above 4.77 may act as a short term bullish sign but its certainly not a strong signal.

    The FA vs TA argument is a good one, because if it goes down much lower than $4.66 some buyers will be salivating but who knows how low it could go?

  15. #4995
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    I'm in , another pattern on a smaller scale has tipped me.

    SummersetHrly19-06-2017.JPG
    Were you talking about a hammer indicator the other day ? Can you please explain to a simple hound that's far more fond of FA what's implied by this hammer signal ?
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

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