Share price above the upper channel line ...just like Sept 2016
Is a weekly chart so may still be in the channel by Friday if price falls back to $6.32
SUM share price continues to increase at ~25%pa (over many years). Cool
Very cool...SUM might even say this is the perfect stock to build wealth for their retirement, then move into one of their lovely spacious units and keep the shares too, a real win-win all round
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
You may be getting your wish --- the SUM PE is slowly creeping up. Based on SUM achieving $100m underlying earnings for FY18 but only taking 1/2 of that at the moment (1/2 year like) I have them on a PE of 16.4 at the moment
What's intriguing is that is that the PE has been in a downtrend since 2014 when it was over 30. In the same period Ryman's PE has also declined. Maybe it is actually a sector thing -- interesting eh
The declinings PE hasn't been that obvious on the SUM price chart (compared to Ryman) because SUM earnings have been growing at much greater rate
But whatever there has to be a good 'reason' for such trends....wonder it is and wonder what it means? I have my theory.
Anyway an interesting chart (its based on underlying earnings, just for you)
Awesome chart mate, says it all. My theory is that in recent years people have been concerned that the real estate market is cooling and their model may come under pressure.
Last year was hardly a stellar year in the real estate market, (a more normal year if you like, if there is such a thing) and look at the profit growth.
Even if SUM's profit growth declines down toward RYM's medium term objective of 15% per annum over time, SUM shares are still substantially better value.
Further, it could be that SUM don't have the 25% foreign ownership threshold of shareholding yet so could potentially have a competitive advantage over other industry participants with future N.Z. land acquisitions.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Doesn't seem that long the world had Summerset being affected by a collapsing property market and the share price was down at 470 odd
Now its up 35% and the future looks bright
Too many punters believe everything the media churns out ....like what they 'reporting; about the impending property market collapse was miles away from reality (i said so at the time)
Chris Lee has some interesting comments on this in his weekly comment. Seems like analysts/fund managers read the papers too much as well https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock
For Chris Lee knockers the retirement village bit is worthwhile reading ...just pretend Beagle wrote it and you will feel better https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock
Last edited by winner69; 01-03-2018 at 09:45 PM.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
Share price fallen back late in the weel and on a weekly close is just contained in the long uptrending channel (spooky eh)
Looking at this and noting what I said a few weeks ago about range trading everything points to SUM share price trading between $5.60 and $6.80 all of this year.
Even that PE chart I posted the other day suggests that this will occur .... the $6.80 being a PE of just over 15 on $100m underlying earnings, probably all the market thinks its worth.
Doesn't seem exciting but with the shareprice still returning about 25% pa over a long period I shall just have to keep holding
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
I think the recent scare tactics have scared a few people off as well. It seems as though Ryman is somehow immune to it all. Their share price hasn't moved much in comparison to SUM. Perhaps they are a darling share with the fund managers out there because it should have dropped more proportionately because its so over-valued.
I do think the changes proposed by the govt may have some affect in this industry on stocks in the short term but the long game is very strong.
Share price fallen back late in the weel and on a weekly close is just contained in the long uptrending channel (spooky eh)
Looking at this and noting what I said a few weeks ago about range trading everything points to SUM share price trading between $5.60 and $6.80 all of this year.
Even that PE chart I posted the other day suggests that this will occur .... the $6.80 being a PE of just over 15 on $100m underlying earnings, probably all the market thinks its worth.
Doesn't seem exciting but with the shareprice still returning about 25% pa over a long period I shall just have to keep holding
I might be old fashioned,but I very much prefer a boring 25% gain to an exciting 100% loss (CBL)
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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Originally Posted by winner69
to an exciting 100% loss (CBL) 
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