SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

Today’s news ...house price inflation definitely slowing ....will put a brake on SUM earnings interest future ..the opportunistic profits of the last few years won’t continue

But as long as we get 15% earnings growth this year no worries


QV’s official national index for May is up just 2.3 percent at $686,954 from a year earlier and barely up with 0.1 percent growth for the three months ended May.

[artemis]

I don't think a slow down (in some locations) will make much difference to take up of retirement village units. Those folk in that particular market will have plenty of equity, and also very probably standalone homes and not shoeboxes. The former scarcer and more sought after than the latter.

Trademe's latest property asking price analysis shows only three locations down year on year - Auckland down 0.5%, Taranaki down 0.1%, Marlborough down 2.5%. Another data input into the mix.

A sustained price downturn will impact unit sale prices and profits though. By how much - who knows.

https://property.trademe.co.nz/marke...urther-afield/

[dreamcatcher]

With interest rates at all time lows one wonders why people are so divided regarding housing market rising/falling.. agents tell me market is difficult. Reevaluation on retirement stocks until direction is known reduces ones chances of capital loss with wait and see approach. SUM needs rising market to book profit from their landbanking. If building cost rise and property falls where does that leave ...........(not just) SUM

Disc hold retirement stocks

[winner69]

SUM share price just can’t seem to revert to 50% of RYM share price ...even with RYM doing its best to make it easier

Seems market is quite content where they have relatively priced all in the sector ...maybe the market has good reason to (and even quite efficient)

[couta1]

SUM share price just can’t seem to revert to 50% of RYM share price ...even with RYM doing its best to make it easier

Seems market is quite content where they have relatively priced all in the sector ...maybe the market has good reason to (and even quite efficient)

That reversion to the mean is not a force to be messed with aye winner, whoops I mean reversion below the mean in SUMs case.

[winner69]

That reversion to the mean is not a force to be messed with aye winner, whoops I mean reversion below the mean in SUMs case.

I think one can revert both ways

Being below 50% gives a wee bit of hope for sum investors

[Lewylewylewy]

Looking at property data recently, I'd say prices are falling. There are bargains being grabbed, and pricing methods are changing from auction to priced.

[Baa_Baa]

Looking at property data recently, I'd say prices are falling. There are bargains being grabbed, and pricing methods are changing from auction to priced.

Try this, go back as far as the chart lets you, maybe one could cherry pick a brief period when median house price sales declined but whoa, look at that trend! If our stocks reliably followed that trend for the same time period we'd all be rich. https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/re...an-price-reinz

I'm happy risking the small risk that property prices materially decline, despite recent favourable property market conditions like super low interest rates and continued CPI relaxing etc. suggesting otherwise. All I really want to see from SUM (while I'm accumulating these low SP anomalies) is better sales performance.

I'm still grappling with their intention to reduce development and stop "headlining" development as imho that's a fudge to improve the numbers compensating for sustained declining sales performance over quite a few years. In any event, I console myself with accumulation opportunities at really good value prices.

[Lewylewylewy]

Agree, but watching the house prices might indicate that sum prices could become more of a bargain.

[winner69]

Looking at property data recently, I'd say prices are falling. There are bargains being grabbed, and pricing methods are changing from auction to priced.

Don’t worry lew, house prices will be higher by this time next year

Not by the 10% plus increases of the last few years but still up a reasonable amount (at least 5%)