SUM - Summerset Group

[clearasmud]

Fat prophets?

[SilverBack]

Fat prophets?

No, wrong country. Fat Portfolio.

[clearasmud]

Thank you Silverback.

[bull....]

The aged care royal commission has uncovered some shocking stories about the treatment of older Australians

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-...ction=business

[BlackPeter]

The aged care royal commission has uncovered some shocking stories about the treatment of older Australians

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-...ction=business

As usual - the story is absolutely irrelevant for SUM. Did you even bother to read it? It is about a lady living in some Australian retirement village and trying to sell her unit on the free market and complaining that there is nobody interested.

Ms Brand chose a real estate agent working for the village managers, Lendlease, to run a sales campaign for her two-bedroom unit, which was initially on the market for $880,000.

But after 15 months on the market, and a seven-month period with no inspections at all, she is frustrated with Lendlease and says the stress of trying to sell her unit is having an impact on her health.

Now - I have no clue what contractual agreement she would have with the to me unknown Australian village provider, but it has clearly nothing to do with Summerset or with the right to occupy contracts retirement villages use on this side of the ditch. No Summerset resident would need to (or could) market their unit if they want to get out. They would return it to the manager and get their capital minus DMF back.

I think you should start a "ramp down Australian retirement villages" in the ASX forum thread instead of wasting everybody's time with irrelevant and misleading information on this and other NZ retirement village threads.

[bull....]

As usual - the story is absolutely irrelevant for SUM. Did you even bother to read it? It is about a lady living in some Australian retirement village and trying to sell her unit on the free market and complaining that there is nobody interested.



Now - I have no clue what contractual agreement she would have with the to me unknown Australian village provider, but it has clearly nothing to do with Summerset or with the right to occupy contracts retirement villages use on this side of the ditch. No Summerset resident would need to (or could) market their unit if they want to get out. They would return it to the manager and get their capital minus DMF back.

I think you should start a "ramp down Australian retirement villages" in the ASX forum thread instead of wasting everybody's time with irrelevant and misleading information on this and other NZ retirement village threads.

it was only an article of interest for who ever wanted to read it , some of which is relevant to NZ and is applicaple to all retirement stocks the fact it was placed here was mainly because it was the first thread i found.


but since you mentioned down ramping heres some facts lol

met ytd - 20%
sum - 17%
oca - 2%

arv + 5.5%
rym +7.5%


so we have a clear decrepancy in performance in these stocks the top 3 are a disaster esp met and SUM and arv and rym not to bad ytd.

I would be more interested in understanding why sum and met are performing so bad wouldnt you? and we dont need your ramping like beagle did on this stock both of you obviously dont know why its performing badly.

[BlackPeter]

it was only an article of interest for who ever wanted to read it , some of which is relevant to NZ and is applicaple to all retirement stocks the fact it was placed here was mainly because it was the first thread i found.


but since you mentioned down ramping heres some facts lol

met ytd - 20%
sum - 17%
oca - 2%

arv + 5.5%
rym +7.5%


so we have a clear decrepancy in performance in these stocks the top 3 are a disaster esp met and SUM and arv and rym not to bad ytd.

I would be more interested in understanding why sum and met are performing so bad wouldnt you? and we dont need your ramping like beagle did on this stock both of you obviously dont know why its performing badly.

Your emotionally charged article is irrelevant for SUM, and the random numbers you used are just that.
I am not surprised.

Here is a five year comparison between SUM (blue line) and RYM (yellowish).

SUMRYM.PNG

Who comes now out as the better one? And while 5 years is a random comparison as well, it is more relevant for long term investors ...

And if you look at the big picture ...

SUMBIG.jpg

... than SUM as well as most of the other contenders you listed had an amazing run over the years - and there is no reason why this should change in the foreseeable future.

SUM has a historic backward PE of 13.6 and a historic CAGR of above 20. These are facts.

Forward PE (but yes, forecasts involved) is below 9.

I am pointing out facts. You are fear mongering using irrelevant but emotionally charged information about individual experiences of customers from unrelated companies using different contracts.

Why is the SUM SP currently somewhat softer? Quite easy ... the whole industry is down compared to recent peaks (RYM down about 20% compared to its peak in August 2018, SUM down about 30% compared to its peak in July 2018). The market might have just pushed the industry in July / August last year somewhat above fair value.

Experienced investors (and even some traders - LOL) would know that this is quite normal market behaviour - same as the in my view "undershoot" we have as a reaction to above.

On top of that - punters probably still worried about the unfounded doomsday prophecies related to the property market (didn't you help to spread them as well?). The continued onslaught of irrelevant smear stories coming from the Australian boulevard press describing sad stories about individuals in Australian retirement villages who wanted to eat their cake and have it, but apparently did not understood the contracts they signed might not help either.

On top of that - share markets obviously do what you would expect a system driven by thousands of irrational but greed and fear driven beings to do ... behave rational and predictable. LOL.

[peat]

as a holder, I was thinking this stock is preparing for new lows and presenting opportunities to long term investors. When the recovery commences it will be powerful
That's what I was thinking.

[percy]

as a holder, I was thinking this stock is preparing for new lows and presenting opportunities to long term investors. When the recovery commences it will be powerful
That's what I was thinking.

Agree,but do not know if or when the recovery will happen.May be awhile away.
AGM comments about slow sales and lower margins saw me exit the sector.
Have SUM and OCA on my watch list.

[bull....]

might take a dip as people switch into superior arv