SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

The sheep are worried by North Korea and Taxcinda Marx. The hound will continue embracing his inner possum confident in the long term growth drivers behind this needs based business, its management and the most undemanding fundamentals SUM trades on.

[peat]

Yes Hoop that $5.00 mark is amazing. Gaps , Support, Resistance....
I tend to think this big triangle is a continuation pattern.

SUM8-9-2017.JPG

[Hoop]

The sheep are worried by North Korea and Taxcinda Marx. The hound will continue embracing his inner possum confident in the long term growth drivers behind this needs based business, its management and the most undemanding fundamentals SUM trades on.

Taxcinda Marx was not around when SUM turned around and started to head down and Km was quiet back then..
SUM down to 4.96 (-5c) and TA-wise is breaking down.TA is showing something is of concern or its simply a stock gone up in price to fast and is taking a long term correction...Who knows.. TAer's (incl medium term TAers) just act..and at the moment it pays to invest money where the action is..and similar to the building sector it aint the retirement sector atm...
When SUM & Co springs back into life I will be there into it again...but so far this year buying in RYM ,SUM would have seen the bull market continue on without you...Buying now just seems to be more of the same type scenario (no mass buy signals)

[Hoop]

Yes Hoop that $5.00 mark is amazing. Gaps , Support, Resistance....
I tend to think this big triangle is a continuation pattern.

SUM8-9-2017.JPG

Yes Peat..Chartists are aware that symmetrical triangles as with some other patterns can also act as a continuation pattern...
Remember in many of my recent previous posts on this this thread..I have been questioning SUM's continuing uptrend and whether that up trend is still continuing....

Symmetrical triangles can only act as a continuation pattern when they occur above a primary up trend line (or resumed major up trend line) and sometimes the pattern apex can test that trend line ...

Now what has happened recently is the Primary up trend has disected this symmetrical triangle and broke in the middle of it....meaning SUM's up trend has ended...Yes I'm not a great fan of trendlines (they can fake) This year long "correction" is very long for a correction process ..very long and/or severe bull market corrections can break Primary Trends..and so I have been writing posts referring other indicating confirmations....
There is a lot of TA uncertaincy (unconfirmed indicator breaks) atm but we do know there are NO buy signals yet so I stay out...Also pattern breakouts often occur when a meandering price line is arrested from testing the two boundaries above and below it...SUM is confusing me atm We have witnessed the Prinary trendline slicing through the pattern (bearish) but having a support conjunction in the middle of a symmetrical triangle pattern suggests a possible bullish breakout, but these last two days are seeing these supports slowing breaking one by one...a concern to the TA bulls ..eh?

If some of these indicators (not yet fully confirmed) turn out to be true (confirmed at a later stage) and the primary tide has indeed turned then the current symmetrical triangle pattern is not a continuation pattern and the breakout odds are 50/50 (Bulkowski 54/46), the bullish breakout rally being a poor performer with another lower high (another sucker rally)..

I don't take 54% odds...They have to be 70+% for me..so SUM atm is a no-goer for me

[Beagle]

Appreciate your TA expertise Hoop.
From my perspective using simple TA I note both the 100 day MA and 180 day MA are at $4.93. If it were to breech this level I am not selling as SUM have never been cheaper on a FA basis at any stage since they listed nearly six years ago. I could say a lot more about the FA side of it and where I see the current and future years profits but at least 49% of me wants this stock to go down even lower so I can do a Couta at a really absurdly low price.

[James108]

Appreciate your TA expertise Hoop.
From my perspective using simple TA I note both the 100 day MA and 180 day MA are at $4.93. If it were to breech this level I am not selling as SUM have never been cheaper on a FA basis at any stage since they listed nearly six years ago. I could say a lot more about the FA side of it and where I see the current and future years profits but at least 49% of me wants this stock to go down even lower so I can do a Couta at a really absurdly low price.

Roger how do you think a probable capital gains tax will affect the tax that summerset pays?

Would appreciate the input of an accountant.

[winner69]

SUM shareprice still comfortably in the 6 year uptrending linear regression channel

Been trending up at 24% pa in those 6 years - thats pretty good

No worries

[fish]

Roger how do you think a probable capital gains tax will affect the tax that summerset pays?

Would appreciate the input of an accountant.

I cannot see how anyone knows until if or when the details are known
Taxcinda is a wild card.
I did see an artickle stating iy should have no effect-occupiers buy a right to live in the house ie they dont buy the property .
A principle of nz taxation is also not to double tax-thats why we have imputation credits etc.
This is an opinion not given by an accountant.
Accountants charge.

[Hoop]

Appreciate your TA expertise Hoop.
From my perspective using simple TA I note both the 100 day MA and 180 day MA are at $4.93. If it were to breech this level I am not selling as SUM have never been cheaper on a FA basis at any stage since they listed nearly six years ago. I could say a lot more about the FA side of it and where I see the current and future years profits but at least 49% of me wants this stock to go down even lower so I can do a Couta at a really absurdly low price.

Roger how do you think a probable capital gains tax will affect the tax that summerset pays?

Would appreciate the input of an accountant.

Labour, it seems could introduce some sort of Capital Gains Tax...I to would be interested in the cost to retirement villages..

On the broader issue of CGT..its a short term issue not a long term thing..People thinking CGT think property but often the case the people endorsing CGT thinking it won't effect them usually does eventually in direct or indirect form.. who knows it could be CGT on shares** as well or any other capital making ventures which could affect any market (including Sharemarket investors) The effect is short term while the CGT gets bedded in..Anyway it never does what it is intended, in the longer term markets return to what they normally do (supply/demand pricing)...and businesses do too
** I'm registered as a share Trader so I already pay tax on capital gains...A CGT of say 15% would be of benefit to me as I pay alot higher percentage tax rate atm..not sure about the benefits with capital losses..

Beagle..yes FA is attractive. So why is Mr Market worried about the retirement sector?..We all know the various media info which isn't that frightening so it's a mystery to me. Maybe there's info out there that the lesser privileged plebs like me are not privy to...Peat mentioned price gap behaviour, maybe we could suddenly find out one way or the other...or its nothing and shares have got cheaper (FA-wise) due to investor focus being elsewhere atm....but its still a TA no go at the moment...maybe Monday next week it all changes for the better...maybe not..

TA can be fun....FA bent TA'ers (e.g Me) when seeing TA/FA conflict turn to their secondary job.. being a Private Detective..I've become a big fan of Google Alert

[artemis]

CGT is short term in one respect, in that it gets folded into costs and forgotten about over time, except by traders who might pay a whole lot less tax on capital gains. But in another respect it is not short term. Owners of assets will act in their own best interest and if that means holding on to assets or finding other ways to protect their position, that is what they will do. Such as borrow against rather than sell, change ownership structure. If they can.

PS Agree about Google Alerts - I get results sent to my RSS feed as more efficient than email.