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08-07-2019, 09:47 AM
#8031
confirms the trend developing of lower sales and confirms the market has been right in selling down the share price in the last yr
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/337306
one step ahead of the herd
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08-07-2019, 10:06 AM
#8032
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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08-07-2019, 10:31 AM
#8033
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
True - sales trend flat at best:
SUMsales19Q2.PNG
... but then - this stock is compared to other great NZ companies cheap like chips. Forward PE of 10 - asking for additional growth at these prices would be greedy, wouldn't it?
Great bargain while the down-rampers do their moves and the lemmings keep jumping. Keep going - I'd like to accumulate still a bit cheaper ; Only interested in the SP in a decade or two from now ;
And margins probably dropping as well = not great earnings , but hey, 2nd half 19 everything is going to turn around.
At least it is not expensive, nearly at fair value, but not cheap given the sum head still present
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08-07-2019, 11:52 AM
#8034
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
True - sales trend flat at best:
SUMsales19Q2.PNG
... but then - this stock is compared to other great NZ companies cheap like chips. Forward PE of 10 - asking for additional growth at these prices would be greedy, wouldn't it?
Great bargain while the down-rampers do their moves and the lemmings keep jumping. Keep going - I'd like to accumulate still a bit cheaper ; Only interested in the SP in a decade or two from now ;
you once showed me your red line chart , how is that plotting now? anyway sales increase if it happens in 2nd half does not hide the fact sales yr on yr will likely be down
one step ahead of the herd
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08-07-2019, 12:38 PM
#8035
Originally Posted by bull....
you once showed me your red line chart , how is that plotting now? anyway sales increase if it happens in 2nd half does not hide the fact sales yr on yr will likely be down
Not quite sure, which you mean - this is the last SUM chart I think I posted which has a "red line":
SUMBIG.jpg
or do you mean this:
SUMlongtermtrend.jpg
I never said that the red line in any of the charts is my "red line" (and it isn't - if you are talking about stop losses) ... but as far as I can see is the current SP nicely hovering above ...
For some stocks I use stop losses, for others I would use the same indicators as buy signal (buy cheap, sell dear ...). SUM belongs into the second category.
PS: While I tend from time to time to rebalance my portfolio ... my overall SUM account is in pretty big and black numbers and at current I am accumulating. Good stock ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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08-07-2019, 01:02 PM
#8036
Attachment 10662
I don't get it.
RYM new sales occupation rights have been falling the last 3 years as well.
2017: 600
2018: 458
2019: 414
But yet RYM's share price remains stronger than SUM!!!
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08-07-2019, 01:31 PM
#8037
Originally Posted by JayRiggs
Attachment 10662
I don't get it.
RYM new sales occupation rights have been falling the last 3 years as well.
2017: 600
2018: 458
2019: 414
But yet RYM's share price remains stronger than SUM!!!
both declining new sales
think there share prices were tracking each other ( down and highly correlated from sept last yr) until sums agm commentary in april which caused the big drop.
one step ahead of the herd
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08-07-2019, 08:05 PM
#8038
Jeez I think SUM did well today, not really that close to the 52 week low ($5.35), yet I felt the announcement indicated things were the worst in 52 weeks...
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU190...tabilising.htm
Gets even worse when you read Q2 announcement from 2018, which showed total occupations rights dropping from 323 in 1H 2017 to 299 in 1H 2018 and now to 277... oh well at least resales haven't changed much... but given SUM's ever increase total units built, resales are going down as a % when they should probably (if sum were doing well) be tracking upward a bit, given they are continually growing the portfolio of units... but we all know (well, at least told from those that know) the big money is in the development... and, unfortunately, those numbers (therefore) have been hit the hardest... At FY, I'd forecast that resales stay the same (at 300) for and probably only around 330 new unit sales (wait, didn't they want to build 450 units this year and 600 or something in the coming years?? Wishful thinking or was I just imagining things?)
One thing is for sure, what ever the new resales number is at FY, it'll probably be a far cry from the 414 new units sold back in the boom times of 2016... if only they had invested in their care facilities, they might find there would be a bit more interest/reason to move into sum village instead of other villages... they might have found today, after making that upfront investment a couple years ago, all the units they are building (and the dozens they have built and haven't been able to sell) might be moving a bit faster/easier... but that wouldn't have been good for shareholder returns in 2016!
EPS has a track record of going up 40% or something annually, and we are going to have $1 in EPS in just a few years, so lets ignore the trends and hope the margins are over 30% and those sum sales managers close deals like they've never closed before to get a good Q4 (even if it means a rubbish Q1 2020).
Last edited by trader_jackson; 08-07-2019 at 08:14 PM.
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08-07-2019, 08:09 PM
#8039
Originally Posted by JayRiggs
Attachment 10662
I don't get it.
RYM new sales occupation rights have been falling the last 3 years as well.
2017: 600
2018: 458
2019: 414
But yet RYM's share price remains stronger than SUM!!!
RYM has a far stronger care offering is probably why it has held up alot more... if someone offered you a 500k apartment but when your health deteriorates, you have to go down the road to a RYM or some other care home because sum doesn't have any space for you (and spend more time, effort and money to do so), vs a 500k apartment but you have all your care (pretty much) lined up for you in the same place (or at least get priority), which one would you choose?
I think there are several on this form who under estimate the importance (especially as time goes on) in offering a strong continuum of care to prospective purchasers...
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08-07-2019, 09:46 PM
#8040
I view sum as a property investment and the others as a retirement home business with a property element.
Ergo: sum should increase at a faster rate than others during property booms, but underperform the others in property depressions.
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