Baa Baa - Julian Cook made some comments on sales initiatives in his address to the annual meeting, herewith an extract...
Sales results for the business were pleasing in 2018. Since that time we have seen some slowing of settlements in Auckland and Christchurch. Since the appointment of Fay French as our GM Sales we have been working on a number of improvements to our sales and marketing approach. We have introduced increased training for sales managers, mystery shopping of our own sites to ensure quality control and customer service standards, improved measurement and reporting of inquiry numbers, conversion rates, and key sales statistics.
We have an enhanced incentive structure for sales managers, more responsive marketing, and an increased focus on engaging with local communities. In response to the slowing in settlement times we have put increased focus and emphasis on marketing and sales conversion in the Auckland and Christchurch markets.
This is the key takeout from my perspective, I know about Auckland and Christchurch markets and that is in essence 50% of the NZ market place and why the sector is struggling.
You know me mate, I'm not a totally number obsessed person and it definitly matters to me that SUM are trying to improve their care standards.
I think its a very good thing that of the 6 directors two, Dr Marie Bismark and Dr Andrew Wong are extremely well credentialed and obviously very well respected in their field of expertise
LOL I'll keep humouring your guys as my good mates that this is relevant until one day this "old wives tale" disappears into the annuals of history as the stuff of former legend but I do note that 55% of $12.20 for RYM is about $6.70 which is about my price target for SUM for one year out so you guys might be all good for another year lol
But 50% of $12.20 is $6.10 so you might get some way to your very optimistic target.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
This is the key takeout from my perspective, I know about Auckland and Christchurch markets and that is in essence 50% of the NZ market place and why the sector is struggling.
Its nothing like 50% of SUM's market and will decrease even further over time and that's the point a lot of people are not understanding.
The time to sell was ~ $7.80 after Q3's results in early October 2018, (and those that did should give themselves a good pat on the back).
The current price is an overreaction to already known factors that were quite clear in late 2018.
Last edited by Beagle; 02-05-2019 at 01:13 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Its nothing like 50% of SUM's market and will decrease even further over time and that's the point a lot of people are not understanding.
The time to sell was ~ $7.80 after Q3's results in early October 2018, (and those that did should give themselves a good pat on the back).
The current price is an overreaction to already known factors that were quite clear in late 2018.
People understand more than you give them credit for. I think most people know the timing and reason why the share price moved. Different competitors are mixing up their offering depending where their portfolio of inventory is across the country. This is working against pressed margins. If you are depending on the regions for NZ sector performance you are a real optimist!
People understand more than you give them credit for. I think most people know the timing and reason why the share price moved. Different competitors are mixing up their offering depending where their portfolio of inventory is across the country. This is working against pressed margins. If you are depending on the regions for NZ sector performance you are a real optimist!
Tell that to Iceman after you ask him how Marlborough and Nelson real estate has been booming.
I am sure those living in the Manawatu and Hawkes Bay would have a different view to yours as well https://reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery
Last edited by Beagle; 02-05-2019 at 08:43 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I had the real estate agent call me today - the one who we bought the house through, here in Whanganui only just a year ago - she wanted me to know prices have risen already, but I said I bought it to live in.
But yeh timed my exit out of the 09 pretty well if I was a speculator. builders are busy here too. its been a month since I asked for a quote on a small piece of work I want done.
Also re the regions - aren't all farmers doing pretty well at the moment? I heard on Country Calendar that sheep and beef farmers are getting good prices. This will support the regions if its true.
Tell that to Iceman after you ask him how Marlborough and Nelson real estate has been booming.
I am sure those living in the Manawatu and Hawkes Bay would have a different view to yours as well https://reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery
I have a number of properties in Nelson and Marlborough. I know the market well. Two key elements are , lack of depth in the market place, these are not large markets. Secondly the medium prices are now just getting close to prices for new units. Hardly a sure thing. Still I have made my point and anyone can look at the numbers in the regions for themselves.
You might get your wish and see SUM re-rated up slightly
Maybe 1.5 / 1.6 times Net Assets (BV) is on the cards over the next year.
But the multiple shown is essentially a sentiment measure (like your PE multiple on those fandangled underlying earnings) and reflects how the market per se feels about both the retirement sector in general and Summerset in particular
The multiple been steadily getting lower eh ......what’s going to change that sentiment?
PS - yes selling at close to 8 bucks was clever. It was outrageously over priced at that time
Last edited by winner69; 03-05-2019 at 08:49 AM.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
Yes, I think a lot of people have forgotten that SUM has already corrected 30% in the last ~ 9 months and during that time underlying eps growth has been ~ 21% so about a 50% reduction in share price relative to underlying earnings and a lot more people don't remember or simply weren't around when RYM grew underlying earnings throughout the GFC.
Last edited by Beagle; 03-05-2019 at 09:12 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by Beagle
disappears into the annuals of history as the stuff of former legend but I do note that 55% of $12.20 for RYM is about $6.70 which is about my price target for SUM for one year out so you guys might be all good for another year lol
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