sharetrader
Page 776 of 970 FirstFirst ... 276676726766772773774775776777778779780786826876 ... LastLast
Results 7,751 to 7,760 of 9698
  1. #7751
    Legend peat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Whanganui, New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,435

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Yes, good old anno domini -working both for and against us all.


    at least we will be experts regarding retirement villages
    although of course the best investment may not be the best residence in fact they just could be negatively correlated!
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #7752
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by LAC View Post
    Whatever slows down the sales of units in SUM will do the same for RYM, I know there's talk about RYM being cream of the crop etc. it still comes down to the growth rate. If SUM have an annual growth rate better than RYM it is inevitable that SUM SP will creep up an close the gap or pass RYM. However it has been suggested that SUM will be getting to the average 15%pa as is what RYM aims for, in that case Couta1's theory may stand the test of time. Regardless SUM, OCA and RYM are all winners for shareholders in the long term
    Client of mine is doing a development in Auckland and Bayley's have been appointed. Had a good chat with John Bayley the owner yesterday and without any prompting or question from me he brought up the national days to settle matter which has jumped quite considerably, (so Julian is a straight shooter as I have come to know he is). Anyone who thinks this will not affect RYM is deluding themselves or more likely hasn't thought it through. RYM also have plenty of exposure to the Australian property market which really is tanking. Discussed quite a few other things with him. Interest rates are at unprecedented lows that neither I or he has ever seen before as are capitalisation rates for industrial property. Many rental properties around N.Z. with appropriate gearing and sub 4% interest rates are now cash flow positive and where are all the 60,000 new immigrants arriving each year going to live ? N.Z. and Australian residential property dynamics are quite different.
    I think all the "text book" experts or here and the other forum predicting a property crash in N.Z. are simply fearmongering with absolutely no date to support their viewpoint and little understanding of the basic laws of supply and demand. The real experts I talk to see things quite differently.
    Last edited by Beagle; 04-05-2019 at 10:30 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #7753
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Wellington, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,701

    Default

    REINZ data shows national days to sell 31 March 2019 at 36 (42 Auckland), compared to a year ago at 34 (37 Auckland). Seems to be a February upward spike though. Does not seem dramatic enough to seriously impact village sales.

    Auckland new listings said by some to be easing, by others Auckland becoming a buyers market. Confusing....

  4. #7754
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    April data about to be released should shed some light on things. It was a pleasure catching up with you and having a chat this week
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #7755
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by artemis View Post
    REINZ data shows national days to sell 31 March 2019 at 36 (42 Auckland), compared to a year ago at 34 (37 Auckland). Seems to be a February upward spike though. Does not seem dramatic enough to seriously impact village sales.

    Auckland new listings said by some to be easing, by others Auckland becoming a buyers market. Confusing....

    Julian using a seasonal spike as an excuse for poor sales I still reckon


    Below REINZ charts days to sell for Auckland and Canterbury.

    Even though the number of days to sell has been trending up ever so slowly over the last 5 year nothing unusual has happened lately (like a shock or anything) to use longer duration as an excuse for poor sales in Auckland and Christchurch

    We probably see what we want to see ....but whatever SUM will increase its Book Value by 18% this year and that should see a ahare price of $6.20 plus or minus what the market rerates it by (continuing the rerating down or getting excited and rerating up)
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by winner69; 04-05-2019 at 12:05 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #7756
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post

    at least we will be experts regarding retirement villages
    although of course the best investment may not be the best residence in fact they just could be negatively correlated!
    Interesting question. Given that this is a long game and word of mouth and personal recommendations are some of the most important marketing measures to bring new customers into the villages would I assume that quality of the product and economic success (as well for shareholders) is highly correlated.

    I don't think most of their customers worry too much whether their DMF is 20%, 30% or even a bit more of their original capital - hey, it won't hurt them, but they clearly will care if the care they receive is substandard.

    Obviously - their need to be fair and clearly communicated rules around the situation that a client wants or needs to move out before departing from this planet.

    If the latter is a given, i think the best provider from a clients (nota bene: I said client, not the clients heirs perspective will have as well the happiest shareholders.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #7757
    Dilettante
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Down & out
    Posts
    5,406

    Default

    Interesting reading about the fast growth in retirement villages here in the Nelson-Tasman region where both Summerset, Arvida and others are building large new villages https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...-units-planned

  8. #7758
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    Wellington, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,701

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Interesting reading about the fast growth in retirement villages here in the Nelson-Tasman region where both Summerset, Arvida and others are building large new villages https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...-units-planned

    In this article, Mr Collyns says ...

    "... I think there's a bit of a moral responsibility to recognise we do have to address people who don't have much money and how we can make sure they can live in a village."

    What exactly is this moral responsibility? Is it perhaps similar to Minister Tracey Martin suggesting last year that village operators could be required to provide state housing for seniors? No mention of Housing NZ or other social housing providers paying or building. She said this -

    "Those are the conversations I'm having with my Cabinet colleagues," she said. "If we can say to a housing developer: 'You must have 40 per cent of affordable housing when you're building separate housing', why are we not having the same conversations with retirement village developers? So, it's sort of like State housing for our seniors, I suppose, but inside an environment that they should be able to go inside with their peers."

  9. #7759
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,502

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by artemis View Post

    What exactly is this moral responsibility?
    There is none at all.

    Retirement villages are the reward old folk get for working hard and investing so they have sufficient capital to buy into one of these place when they are ready.

    If an aged person cant afford a roof over their head after retirement then that, in the first instance is their responsibility, secondly it becomes the families responsibility. And if those options fail then it is central governments responsibility to look after the vulnerable. That does not mean they get placed in a s****y retirement village - unless the government want the govt (you and me) to pay for a villa.

  10. #7760
    Veteran novice
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    7,289

    Default

    Was Mr Collyns talking about the moral responsibility of society generally - and perhaps giving a subtle reminder to government re funding?

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •