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  1. #7861
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    House prices set to rocket ...again

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...tion-of-7.html
    I think the removal of capital gains tax which has been overhanging the market since Labour was gifted the election win by Winston Peter's in late 2017 is a significant factor as is the lowest interest rates I have ever seen. 3 year fixed mortgages from mainstream banks for around 3.8% is quite remarkable.

    Different economists will have different views but I tend to agree with Westpac.

    Useful to zoom out and have a look at the big picture. Immigration is still running really strong and will underpin the market demand-supply equation and the cost of building a new home has been rising at an alarming rate vastly in excess of the inflation rate in no small way due to the ridiculously expensive and draconian building consent processes.

    SUM's metric s have never been more compelling since it listed 7 1/2 years ago, (a fact all the naysayers and doomsday merchants always very conveniently overlook).
    Another factor they never mention is the quality of the management and the board and the unprecedented track record of profit growth SUM has achieved since listing which to the best of my knowledge is unmatched by any other company on the NZX including the much revered Ryman.

    Excellent long term hold in my opinion.
    Last edited by Beagle; Today at 09:51 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #7862
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    House prices set to rocket ...again

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...tion-of-7.html
    Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  3. #7863
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...
    Even a broken clock is right twice a day lol
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  4. #7864
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...
    Worry is that Dominic and I are on the same wavelength ....I said 5% plus a week or so ago but that’s dependent on the number of house sales picking up quite significantly.

    But when it comes down to it we believe the things we read that are seen to be positive for SUM eh ...gives us the warm fuzzies eh.
    ”You can't cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water.” -Rabindranath Tagore

  5. #7865
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Even a broken clock is right twice a day lol
    Yep I get excited every now and again when I look at the lovely Omega watch I’ve left on the dresser for many years ......especially when I look at 5.23 and say heck it still keeps good time
    ”You can't cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water.” -Rabindranath Tagore

  6. #7866
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    But when it comes down to it we believe the things we read that are seen to be positive for SUM eh ...gives us the warm fuzzies eh.
    Yep its called investor bias and calls one prediction a fact

  7. #7867
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Yep its called investor bias and calls one prediction a fact
    Plenty of non holders seem to be able to twist and contort the national average housing figures from REINZ showing medium national house prices up 6.5% for the year into the FACT that housing is falling off the edge of a cliff and in cataclysmic collapse
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #7868
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    House near me just sold in least than two weeks on the market.

    Went past SUM's Avonhead development yesterday. Looking good. Thought the motorway noise might be an issue. But its not.

    Nice short stroll down to Avonhead Mall for the supermarket, bookshop and hairdresser. 5 Minutes away from airport (for all the overseas adventures residents can still enjoy). 3 minutes away from motorway on ramps to head north or south.

    It will be a great development

  9. #7869
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Plenty of non holders seem to be able to twist and contort the national average housing figures from REINZ showing medium national house prices up 6.5% for the year into the FACT that housing is falling off the edge of a cliff and in cataclysmic collapse
    ...but only up 1% from November’s median of $579k to April’s $585k ....in USA lingo annualised 2.4%

    Not a cataclysmic collapse ..unlike the SUM share price cataclysmic collapse of 23% from a year ago
    ”You can't cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water.” -Rabindranath Tagore

  10. #7870
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Plenty of non holders seem to be able to twist and contort the national average housing figures from REINZ showing medium national house prices up 6.5% for the year into the FACT that housing is falling off the edge of a cliff and in cataclysmic collapse
    Thats a radical prediction sounding like fact. Using the c words.Sounds like a lemming mockumentary. Im GUESSING a minor drop this year. But then there is the global warming urgency starting to build, could impact capitalism somewhat; c words more pertinent there imo.

  11. #7871
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thats a radical prediction sounding like fact. Using the c words.Sounds like a lemming mockumentary. Im GUESSING a minor drop this year. But then there is the global warming urgency starting to build, could impact capitalism somewhat; c words more pertinent there imo.
    Global warming is not a problem for SUM (or OCA on Windermere for that matter) buyers in Christchurch. Our local council has declared a Climate Emergency and they are now well positioned to deal with the problem. All good in this neck of the woods - expecting property values to increase on the back of this comforting position taken by the Council

  12. #7872
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thats a radical prediction sounding like fact. Using the c words.Sounds like a lemming mockumentary. Im GUESSING a minor drop this year. But then there is the global warming urgency starting to build, could impact capitalism somewhat; c words more pertinent there imo.
    Um dont you mean climate change it's not all about warming some places are getting cooler. PS-I see the Aussies have given the middle finger to the over exuberant policies of the Labour Govt on climate change and aligned themselves with the Trumpet in their thinking ie Economy comes first.

  13. #7873
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    Despite today's low interest rates I can't see house prices taking off again. There's a point at which repayments become unaffordable without higher incomes, slowing and eventually halting price rises. I don't see economic prospects supporting significantly higher wages and salaries.

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