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  1. #7111
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    I'm wary of reading too much into one or two days of price rises ... from Dec 21 to Dec 28 the SP rose from 6.15 to 6.48, then promptly turned back and fell to 6.11.

    My daughter has a chunk of money invested in SUM so I would love for the trend to turn ... just not convinced that it is.

  2. #7112
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtech View Post
    I'm wary of reading too much into one or two days of price rises ... from Dec 21 to Dec 28 the SP rose from 6.15 to 6.48, then promptly turned back and fell to 6.11.

    My daughter has a chunk of money invested in SUM so I would love for the trend to turn ... just not convinced that it is.
    RYM been behaving like a good traders stock lately too.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #7113
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Maybe this is why SUM sales not that robust

    DECEMBER HOUSE SALES FALL TO SEVEN-YEAR LOW

    http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c...n-year-lowhtml
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #7114
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    You beat me to it mate and not a surprise to me at all. I was involved as a trustee in a major farm sale close to Auckland for development in the last quarter of last year...extended contract that contained many complex commercial clauses (running to over 20 pages) including the usual due diligence. Can't name the parties for obvious reasons but the buyer pulled the pin in late December and I believe this is because many of their other developments are experiencing very, very slow sales. I heard from another client late last year, (the general manager of one of the major Australian owned franchises) that many developers in Auckland are really struggling to sell down their properties and some banks are getting titchy and requiring them to rent out houses to get some cash flow to service their debt !

    No surprise to me that SUM are struggling to sell down their Auckland units and this problem won't go away any time soon in my opinion. They will also be struggling to contain rampant development cost inflation in the Auckland area as well, along with the struggle every other Auckland developer has to try and find subby's who have some clue of what they're doing at anything other than a usurious price. Its not a good game to be in at the moment and more developers will go to the wall in 2019, you mark my words.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #7115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    You beat me to it mate and not a surprise to me at all. I was involved as a trustee in a major farm sale close to Auckland for development in the last quarter of last year...extended contract that contained many complex commercial clauses (running to over 20 pages) including the usual due diligence. Can't name the parties for obvious reasons but the buyer pulled the pin in late December and I believe this is because many of their other developments are experiencing very, very slow sales. I heard from another client late last year, (the general manager of one of the major Australian owned franchises) that many developers in Auckland are really struggling to sell down their properties and some banks are getting titchy and requiring them to rent out houses to get some cash flow to service their debt !

    No surprise to me that SUM are struggling to sell down their Auckland units and this problem won't go away any time soon in my opinion. They will also be struggling to contain rampant development cost inflation in the Auckland area as well, along with the struggle every other Auckland developer has to try and find subby's who have some clue of what they're doing at anything other than a usurious price. Its not a good game to be in at the moment and more developers will go to the wall in 2019, you mark my words.
    Ties in with what i am seeing and hearing from other builders in Christchurch..

  6. #7116
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    She's sub $6, getting reverted back to fair value.
    Last edited by couta1; 05-02-2019 at 01:48 PM.

  7. #7117
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    She's sub $6, getting reverted back to fair value.
    Yes I noticed the other day it was brushing up against the top of the 50-60% band of RYM's price and sure enough, as sure as night follows day its reverted back to the middle of that range yet again.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #7118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    .... Its not a good game to be in at the moment and more developers will go to the wall in 2019, you mark my words.
    Hi Beagle! I think you are correct about slow sales in Auckland (and elsewhere) and problems ahead for developers. But is there data?

    I am putting together a submission to the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee concerning the proposal to ring-fence rental property losses (part of the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2019–20, GST Offshore Supplier Registration, and Remedial Matters) Bill).

    One of the points I want to make is that traditionally residential property investors have bought many of the new build apartments, though more likely middle and low end. It is obvious to anyone living in these blocks that most are tenants. (Friend of mine lives in a 90 unit mid range complex in Wellington. 2 are owner occupied.)

    If these investors know they are going to have to dip into their tax paid income rather than offset rental losses against other income, they will think twice about buying. Yep, some developers will be in trouble.

    I would like to point the Select Committee to relevant data, but where? Anyone have any thoughts? I will suggest they do their own research, but will they?

  9. #7119
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by artemis View Post
    I will suggest they do their own research, but will they?
    No.

    They rely first on their policy position. They then fall back a bit on advice from their Ministry who are tasked with supporting the Minster. Treasury will provide some other info. Select Committees are just about giving the appearance of a transparent and open government - but in fact they arent.

  10. #7120
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    No.

    They rely first on their policy position. They then fall back a bit on advice from their Ministry who are tasked with supporting the Minster. Treasury will provide some other info. Select Committees are just about giving the appearance of a transparent and open government - but in fact they arent.
    Yeah, probably. This in today's Herald makes no mention of the impact on the construction sector but it does say supply and demand are broadly in balance. No shortage then ....

    "Market indications are that a significant number of new listings will hit the market in February further increasing the already strong level of buyer choice," said Thompson.


    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12200986

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