Summerset Group IPO

[macduffy]

No migration is still positive 56,100 but revised down from 61,600 just more KIWI'S leaving then KIWI'S arriving

A sure sign that immigration is on the way down. This morning's DomPost has a full page advert by MBIE seeking applications for eight General Managers and a dozen National Managers of various types for Immigation NZ!

[Scrunch]

A sure sign that immigration is on the way down. This morning's DomPost has a full page advert by MBIE seeking applications for eight General Managers and a dozen National Managers of various types for Immigation NZ!

Net migration may be decreasing, but its still at a high level, just down from a super-high level. With a population of around 5 million, net migration of 56,100 is still adding more than 1% pa to the number of people living in NZ.

This 1% is not spread evenly and tends to be primarily individuals aged in their 20's and early 30's. This means that 5 years ago, no individual age had more than 65,000 people, but the late-40's/early 50's was just under 65k, as was an early 20's bulge. Now every age from 21 to 30 has more than 70,000 people and the peak at age 27 is 78,640 people. This new population peak is now a lot bigger than the "baby boomers" but its 40 years before they get into the retirement villages.

The peak that was at age 50 in 2014 has continued to age and is now 55 and migration/early deaths have cancelled out to leave it the same size. Curious stat - the size of the net migration flow is such that the NZ Median age has decreased over the last five years (37.5 to 36.9). That's an interesting fact inlight of commentary about an aging population.

[Blue Skies]

I wouldn't put too much weight on those immigration fluctuations.
To keep things in perspective, NZ's 65+ population projected to double from 711,000 in 2016 to around 1.4 Million in next 26/27 years.

And looking around the world at the moment with the huge challenges Australia faces with climate change (water supply & soaring temperatures for much of the continent), UK with Brexit mess, EU mess etc etc, NZ looking like some kind of heaven for many people.

[Food4Thought]

I wouldn't put too much weight on those immigration fluctuations.
To keep things in perspective, NZ's 65+ population projected to double from 711,000 in 2016 to around 1.4 Million in next 26/27 years.

And looking around the world at the moment with the huge challenges Australia faces with climate change (water supply & soaring temperatures for much of the continent), UK with Brexit mess, EU mess etc etc, NZ looking like some kind of heaven for many people.

I agree with those realities. It would make interesting comparison with small ideal locations in Europe where population kept growing but desirable locations didnt increase. The trend is your friend

[dreamcatcher]

Good bounce but both SUM & RYM showing Overbought

[bull....]

confirms the trend developing of lower sales and confirms the market has been right in selling down the share price in the last yr

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/337306

[BlackPeter]

confirms the trend developing of lower sales and confirms the market has been right in selling down the share price in the last yr

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/337306

True - sales trend flat at best:

SUMsales19Q2.PNG

... but then - this stock is compared to other great NZ companies cheap like chips. Forward PE of 10 - asking for additional growth at these prices would be greedy, wouldn't it?

Great bargain while the down-rampers do their moves and the lemmings keep jumping. Keep going - I'd like to accumulate still a bit cheaper ; Only interested in the SP in a decade or two from now ;

[trader_jackson]

True - sales trend flat at best:

SUMsales19Q2.PNG

... but then - this stock is compared to other great NZ companies cheap like chips. Forward PE of 10 - asking for additional growth at these prices would be greedy, wouldn't it?

Great bargain while the down-rampers do their moves and the lemmings keep jumping. Keep going - I'd like to accumulate still a bit cheaper ; Only interested in the SP in a decade or two from now ;

And margins probably dropping as well = not great earnings , but hey, 2nd half 19 everything is going to turn around.

At least it is not expensive, nearly at fair value, but not cheap given the sum head still present

[bull....]

True - sales trend flat at best:

SUMsales19Q2.PNG

... but then - this stock is compared to other great NZ companies cheap like chips. Forward PE of 10 - asking for additional growth at these prices would be greedy, wouldn't it?

Great bargain while the down-rampers do their moves and the lemmings keep jumping. Keep going - I'd like to accumulate still a bit cheaper ; Only interested in the SP in a decade or two from now ;

you once showed me your red line chart , how is that plotting now? anyway sales increase if it happens in 2nd half does not hide the fact sales yr on yr will likely be down

[BlackPeter]

you once showed me your red line chart , how is that plotting now? anyway sales increase if it happens in 2nd half does not hide the fact sales yr on yr will likely be down

Not quite sure, which you mean - this is the last SUM chart I think I posted which has a "red line":

SUMBIG.jpg

or do you mean this:

SUMlongtermtrend.jpg

I never said that the red line in any of the charts is my "red line" (and it isn't - if you are talking about stop losses) ... but as far as I can see is the current SP nicely hovering above ...

For some stocks I use stop losses, for others I would use the same indicators as buy signal (buy cheap, sell dear ...). SUM belongs into the second category.

PS: While I tend from time to time to rebalance my portfolio ... my overall SUM account is in pretty big and black numbers and at current I am accumulating. Good stock ...

[JayRiggs]

RYM_NewSales 2014-2019.jpg
I don't get it.
RYM new sales occupation rights have been falling the last 3 years as well.
2017: 600
2018: 458
2019: 414

But yet RYM's share price remains stronger than SUM!!!

[bull....]

RYM_NewSales 2014-2019.jpg
I don't get it.
RYM new sales occupation rights have been falling the last 3 years as well.
2017: 600
2018: 458
2019: 414

But yet RYM's share price remains stronger than SUM!!!

both declining new sales
think there share prices were tracking each other ( down and highly correlated from sept last yr) until sums agm commentary in april which caused the big drop.

[trader_jackson]

Jeez I think SUM did well today, not really that close to the 52 week low ($5.35), yet I felt the announcement indicated things were the worst in 52 weeks...

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU190...tabilising.htm

Gets even worse when you read Q2 announcement from 2018, which showed total occupations rights dropping from 323 in 1H 2017 to 299 in 1H 2018 and now to 277... oh well at least resales haven't changed much... but given SUM's ever increase total units built, resales are going down as a % when they should probably (if sum were doing well) be tracking upward a bit, given they are continually growing the portfolio of units... but we all know (well, at least told from those that know) the big money is in the development... and, unfortunately, those numbers (therefore) have been hit the hardest... At FY, I'd forecast that resales stay the same (at 300) for and probably only around 330 new unit sales (wait, didn't they want to build 450 units this year and 600 or something in the coming years?? Wishful thinking or was I just imagining things?)

One thing is for sure, what ever the new resales number is at FY, it'll probably be a far cry from the 414 new units sold back in the boom times of 2016... if only they had invested in their care facilities, they might find there would be a bit more interest/reason to move into sum village instead of other villages... they might have found today, after making that upfront investment a couple years ago, all the units they are building (and the dozens they have built and haven't been able to sell) might be moving a bit faster/easier... but that wouldn't have been good for shareholder returns in 2016!

EPS has a track record of going up 40% or something annually, and we are going to have $1 in EPS in just a few years, so lets ignore the trends and hope the margins are over 30% and those sum sales managers close deals like they've never closed before to get a good Q4 (even if it means a rubbish Q1 2020).

[trader_jackson]

RYM_NewSales 2014-2019.jpg
I don't get it.
RYM new sales occupation rights have been falling the last 3 years as well.
2017: 600
2018: 458
2019: 414

But yet RYM's share price remains stronger than SUM!!!

RYM has a far stronger care offering is probably why it has held up alot more... if someone offered you a 500k apartment but when your health deteriorates, you have to go down the road to a RYM or some other care home because sum doesn't have any space for you (and spend more time, effort and money to do so), vs a 500k apartment but you have all your care (pretty much) lined up for you in the same place (or at least get priority), which one would you choose?

I think there are several on this form who under estimate the importance (especially as time goes on) in offering a strong continuum of care to prospective purchasers...

[Lewylewylewy]

I view sum as a property investment and the others as a retirement home business with a property element.

Ergo: sum should increase at a faster rate than others during property booms, but underperform the others in property depressions.