SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

Thinking about it overnight I couldn't agree more. SUM has an excellent track record ever since they listed six years ago of always slightly exceeding build guidance and as you say as recently as last month Julian Cook confirmed they are on track to meet this year's guidance. Their reputation speaks for itself.
On another subject I see house prices according to REINZ are ostensibly flat in Auckland for the year to October and up 3.9% on average across the rest of the country. This exceeds the assumptions I have in my forecast model which was for 0% gain in Auckland and just 3.0% nationally. Development margin at 28% at the half year substantially exceeded my model of 22% average for the year. I am modelling $85m underlying profit for the year. Resales of units were slightly under my model for Q3 but were in line with my model for the first half. On balance I am more than happy with my forecast going forward. Disc: Holding a good sized position.

Terrible news in the headline - Auckland prices down the most since 2010
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11944135

But heck October median price was higher than September

[bull....]

3.5% fall , better start throwing some low ball offers at those retirement village units might get lucky

[trader_jackson]

3.5% fall , better start throwing some low ball offers at those retirement village units might get lucky

I was thinking about this... and although this is slightly unrelated, I saw Oceania advertising their exceptional Lady Allum (in Milford) apartments for $520k, about half the Milford average house price, so the price is going to have to drop an awful lot before the elderly decide they "can't afford" to move into these villages, especially those like may of Oceania's villages where they know they have easy access to care facilities when the time comes.

[Xerof]

We are seeing strong enquiry for our Casebrook village

This is all we need to know - it's a constant.

[percy]

This is all we need to know - it's a constant.

The margin on developing the additional land, will most probably be a lot higher, as they will already have the service blocks .

[Beagle]

All pervasive uncertainty reigned supreme in October for obvious reasons. I wouldn't read too much into one months real estate numbers but yeah I would acknowledge its essentially give or take a little bit flat. My model is based on flat Auckland real estate prices and 3% average growth throughout the rest of N.Z. where the vast majority of SUM's villages are.

[Beagle]

Must admit SUM days this month its been hard to be a SUM shareholder, especially when it hit $4.60 a while ago and the technical's seemed to scream SELL, although Winner would probably say that we're okay because it stayed within its 5 year uptrend squiggly line band thingy...whatever he call's it. Might be a little early to call the bottom but it seems to me its now somewhat more comfortable at the moment being a holder and maybe the recent test of the bottom of Winner's 5 year trend line has passed and we can look forward to better things in 2018...

[macduffy]

I'd be inclined to ignore these shareprice fluctuations, Beagle. We know that SUM is a longterm play and in the short term the shareprice can do what shareprices do.



Disc: holding.

[percy]

I'd be inclined to ignore these shareprice fluctuations, Beagle. We know that SUM is a longterm play and in the short term the shareprice can do what shareprices do.



Disc: holding.

Sage advice.

Fear , greed, and momentum drive charts,but fundamentals win out in the end.Get them right,and then wait for the market to wake up.If the market overshoots,sell a few,if the market has a buy one get one half price day,take advantage of it.It is called being "well positioned."

[Beagle]

I'd be inclined to ignore these shareprice fluctuations, Beagle. We know that SUM is a longterm play and in the short term the shareprice can do what shareprices do.



Disc: holding.

Sage advice.

Fear , greed, and momentum drive charts,but fundamentals win out in the end.Get them right,and then wait for the market to wake up.If the market overshoots,sell a few,if the market has a buy one get one half price day,take advantage of it.It is called being "well positioned."

Yes good comments agree 100%. Fortunately I have been flat out at work as well as wasting the usual inordinate amount of time on here to worry too much
By and large a "happy hound holder" although the tail has been wagging a little slower than normal this month.