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  1. #7756
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    REINZ data shows national days to sell 31 March 2019 at 36 (42 Auckland), compared to a year ago at 34 (37 Auckland). Seems to be a February upward spike though. Does not seem dramatic enough to seriously impact village sales.

    Auckland new listings said by some to be easing, by others Auckland becoming a buyers market. Confusing....

  2. #7757
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    April data about to be released should shed some light on things. It was a pleasure catching up with you and having a chat this week
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #7758
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    Quote Originally Posted by artemis View Post
    REINZ data shows national days to sell 31 March 2019 at 36 (42 Auckland), compared to a year ago at 34 (37 Auckland). Seems to be a February upward spike though. Does not seem dramatic enough to seriously impact village sales.

    Auckland new listings said by some to be easing, by others Auckland becoming a buyers market. Confusing....

    Julian using a seasonal spike as an excuse for poor sales I still reckon


    Below REINZ charts days to sell for Auckland and Canterbury.

    Even though the number of days to sell has been trending up ever so slowly over the last 5 year nothing unusual has happened lately (like a shock or anything) to use longer duration as an excuse for poor sales in Auckland and Christchurch

    We probably see what we want to see ....but whatever SUM will increase its Book Value by 18% this year and that should see a ahare price of $6.20 plus or minus what the market rerates it by (continuing the rerating down or getting excited and rerating up)
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    Last edited by winner69; 04-05-2019 at 01:05 PM.
    ”You can't cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water.” -Rabindranath Tagore

  4. #7759
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post

    at least we will be experts regarding retirement villages
    although of course the best investment may not be the best residence in fact they just could be negatively correlated!
    Interesting question. Given that this is a long game and word of mouth and personal recommendations are some of the most important marketing measures to bring new customers into the villages would I assume that quality of the product and economic success (as well for shareholders) is highly correlated.

    I don't think most of their customers worry too much whether their DMF is 20%, 30% or even a bit more of their original capital - hey, it won't hurt them, but they clearly will care if the care they receive is substandard.

    Obviously - their need to be fair and clearly communicated rules around the situation that a client wants or needs to move out before departing from this planet.

    If the latter is a given, i think the best provider from a clients (nota bene: I said client, not the clients heirs perspective will have as well the happiest shareholders.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  5. #7760
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    Interesting reading about the fast growth in retirement villages here in the Nelson-Tasman region where both Summerset, Arvida and others are building large new villages https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...-units-planned

  6. #7761
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Interesting reading about the fast growth in retirement villages here in the Nelson-Tasman region where both Summerset, Arvida and others are building large new villages https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...-units-planned

    In this article, Mr Collyns says ...

    "... I think there's a bit of a moral responsibility to recognise we do have to address people who don't have much money and how we can make sure they can live in a village."

    What exactly is this moral responsibility? Is it perhaps similar to Minister Tracey Martin suggesting last year that village operators could be required to provide state housing for seniors? No mention of Housing NZ or other social housing providers paying or building. She said this -

    "Those are the conversations I'm having with my Cabinet colleagues," she said. "If we can say to a housing developer: 'You must have 40 per cent of affordable housing when you're building separate housing', why are we not having the same conversations with retirement village developers? So, it's sort of like State housing for our seniors, I suppose, but inside an environment that they should be able to go inside with their peers."

  7. #7762
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    Quote Originally Posted by artemis View Post

    What exactly is this moral responsibility?
    There is none at all.

    Retirement villages are the reward old folk get for working hard and investing so they have sufficient capital to buy into one of these place when they are ready.

    If an aged person cant afford a roof over their head after retirement then that, in the first instance is their responsibility, secondly it becomes the families responsibility. And if those options fail then it is central governments responsibility to look after the vulnerable. That does not mean they get placed in a s****y retirement village - unless the government want the govt (you and me) to pay for a villa.

  8. #7763
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    Was Mr Collyns talking about the moral responsibility of society generally - and perhaps giving a subtle reminder to government re funding?

  9. #7764
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    Maybe SUM could start renting out some of their apartments they are struggling to sell and the Government could foot some of the bill by paying an accommodation supplement to people's super ?
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #7765
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    Increase in Operating Cash Flow hasn't been much the last 2 years

    Cash is king they say .... maybe this year will be different
    ”You can't cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water.” -Rabindranath Tagore

  11. #7766
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    I am sure retirement village residents, who paid big money for their units, would just love having a wide diversity of tenants living alongside of them,funded by the Govt..lol.
    "No we did not pay $750,000 for our unit."
    "We can't afford to pay rent,so the Govt pays."
    "Don't know how much it costs the Govt,but we think we should have been given a five bedroom unit ,so the grand children could live with us."
    "Bit crowded with five in the spare bedroom,and three in the longe".
    Last edited by percy; 05-05-2019 at 07:53 PM.

  12. #7767
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Increase in Operating Cash Flow hasn't been much the last 2 years

    Cash is king they say .... maybe this year will be different
    It's probably too early to say, but whatever, SUM has some lovely chart action going on, bouncing off the 2016 highs and 2018 consolidations before its big run up through June-Oct 2018. Actually, it's definitely too early to say technically, being so far below it's MA's and downtrend lines, but a punter who believes in the FA might see this as the buying opportunity.

    Value investing is so scary, bascially defying the golden rules of never buying a downtrend, value investors only ever buy down trends! True contrarians, sticking their convictions up the market, good on them.
    BAA

  13. #7768
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    It's probably too early to say, but whatever, SUM has some lovely chart action going on, bouncing off the 2016 highs and 2018 consolidations before its big run up through June-Oct 2018. Actually, it's definitely too early to say technically, being so far below it's MA's and downtrend lines, but a punter who believes in the FA might see this as the buying opportunity.

    Value investing is so scary, bascially defying the golden rules of never buying a downtrend, value investors only ever buy down trends! True contrarians, sticking their convictions up the market, good on them.
    Yep great buying opportunity at 576.....if only for no other reason than it’s current P/B multiple has never been lower (see my charts of other day)

    Book Value likely to increase about 18% in F19 .....that’ll take share price to 670 odd and if rerated to up to a more realistic P/B of 1.5 that would take share price to 770 early next year.

    Price you pay is 576 for 770 of value ...sounds fair enough

    Pity Julian brought up that excuse of days to sell increasing market data) because that only caused all that uncertainty. He’s got to learn to be more careful what he says....but then he gave many the opportunity to capture that ‘value’ that’s there
    ”You can't cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water.” -Rabindranath Tagore

  14. #7769
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Maybe SUM could start renting out some of their apartments they are struggling to sell and the Government could foot some of the bill by paying an accommodation supplement to people's super ?
    I think there is room for the retirement village operators to offer units for rental. There would be group of people who may not necessarily be able to afford, or perhaps want to make the outlay for an ora but who could pay rent out of retirement savings and the sale of a cheaper house.

    These renters would be probably be long-term (comparatively) and trustworthy, and a large village would have the infrastructure to administer these tenanted properties.

    At the bottom of the wealth league, there will always be a segment of retirees who have minimal assets and savings. Often, but not always, this is because off ill-health or misfortune, They should always be taken care of by the social welfare safety net.
    Last edited by Bjauck; 07-05-2019 at 10:40 AM.

  15. #7770
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    I think there is room for the retirement village operators to offer units for rental. There would be group of people who may not necessarily be able to afford, or perhaps want to make the outlay for an ora but who could pay rent out of retirement savings and the sale of a cheaper house.

    These renters would be probably be long-term (comparatively) and trustworthy, and a large village would have the infrastructure to administer these tenanted properties.

    At the bottom of the wealth league, there will always be a segment of retirees who have minimal assets and savings. Often, but not always, this is because off ill-health or misfortune, They should always be taken care of by the social welfare safety net.
    I guess you'd just work it that they pay a lower purchase for the ORA but a higher monthly fee. If it's a choice between that and having a unit empty for years, then yes I can see the argument being reasonably compelling. Time was that local councils had retirement units that they offered out to the low income community, but a lot have been sold off now (at least in Auckland, probably smaller provincial councils still do it).

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