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  1. #7831
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    “Seeing the world anew”- the seeing of new patterns- is one of our most important survival skills, and is something that we all need to include in our thinking.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  2. #7832
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    SUM at 560 pretty good value

    Slightly underpriced but will still increase over next year in line with earnings growth so 630/640 likely by year’s end.

    ...but you never know the world might go mad and rerate it a bit ...then 770 is on cards mid next year
    I'm thinking a lot further out than one year, (for a change lol), but that's pretty much how I foresee it travelling in the short term.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #7833
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    When it comes to house price trends there really isn’t that much difference between the gold standard and the numbers real people use

    Then again QV have another series.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  4. #7834
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    When it comes to house price trends there really isn’t that much difference between the gold standard and the numbers real people use

    Then again QV have another series.
    Love your charts winner, just goes to show the quibbles over a few % here or there are nonsense. Look at the trend! Wow. No sign of reversing into the doldrums, and with RBNZ slashing OCR and banks debasing mortgage interest rates, ballyhoo, property continues to be the best investment in NZ. Or listed property companies of which there are a few special ones we like.

  5. #7835
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    OK - I obviously realise that some people here are desperate to spread fear and generally love to emphasize anything which could be interpreted as bad news. I hope you have fun ...
    Thats rubbish BP these were news items from ASB's site this morning but sorry if it wasn't balanced.

    My portfolio includes retirement stocks but until I see clarity on property prices and the Govt's intentions regarding LandBankers will watch from sidelines.
    Last edited by dreamcatcher; 16-05-2019 at 12:59 AM. Reason: corrected spelling

  6. #7836
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreamcatcher View Post
    Thats rubbish BP these were news items from ASB's site this morning but sorry if it wasn't balanced.

    My portfolio includes retirement stocks but until I see clarity on property prices and the Govt's intentions regarding LandBankers will watch from sidelines.
    I tend to call a spade a spade. If that's what you call "rubbish", be my guest ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #7837
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attach...4&d=1557906661

    Picture says a thousand words. QED.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #7838
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Rating has been upgraded to HHH which is better than BBB or even AAA

    HHH = Happy hound holder
    Cool, just curious if the current price is still a good buy.

  9. #7839
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    SUM at 560 pretty good value

    Slightly underpriced but will still increase over next year in line with earnings growth so 630/640 likely by year’s end.

    ...but you never know the world might go mad and rerate it a bit ...then 770 is on cards mid next year
    That's what my gut says, how do you see it from the TA?

  10. #7840
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    Quote Originally Posted by MauroNZ View Post
    Cool, just curious if the current price is still a good buy.
    Yes absolutely. I think there is compelling value on offer around $5.60-$5.70.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #7841
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    When it comes to house price trends there really isn’t that much difference between the gold standard and the numbers real people use

    Then again QV have another series.
    I don't know when, but this is not good, house prices can't keep rising forever, something is going to happen. Is not a wish nor down ramping but just a huge concern.
    Interesting documentary:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzSAmOQuyjU

  12. #7842
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    Quote Originally Posted by MauroNZ View Post
    I don't know when, but this is not good, house prices can't keep rising forever, something is going to happen. Is not a wish nor down ramping but just a huge concern.
    Interesting documentary:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzSAmOQuyjU
    I am an investor in three of the ORA providers. Barring a major correction I am happy with that as there business is not just about land price increases.

    However, given NZ households’ major dependency on real estate investment and its reliance on untaxed (leveraged) capital gains to provide a large proportion of its return, I am concerned any further increase at this stage may mean a more dramatic correction.

  13. #7843
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MauroNZ View Post
    I don't know when, but this is not good, house prices can't keep rising forever, something is going to happen. Is not a wish nor down ramping but just a huge concern.
    Interesting documentary:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzSAmOQuyjU
    Interesting to note that the countries with low home ownership rates like e.g. Germany (51.9% home ownership rate) and Switzerland (43.4% home ownership rate) are typically much wealthier than countries with high home ownership rates (like e.g. Romania with 96.4% home ownership rate or China with 90%): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ownership_rate

    And yes, Singapore (a wealthy country) is an exception to this rule - here the state is heavily subsidizing the first (and often the last) home to their citizens.

    NZ is with a current homeownership rate of 63.2% somewhere in the middle between the wealthy countries and the poor countries, but maybe it is a good thing home ownership rates are dropping and we are getting more wealthy?
    ----
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  14. #7844
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post

    NZ is with a current homeownership rate of 63.2% somewhere in the middle between the wealthy countries and the poor countries, but maybe it is a good thing home ownership rates are dropping and we are getting more wealthy?
    I agree that being wealthy should not depend on owning one’s own home. However in NZ it is currently the case that you are more able to borrow to invest in a house, and if you do, you can enjoy untaxed leveraged capital gains (whether owner occupied or not).

    NZ (as a whole) may be getting wealthier. However does the increased wealth belong to a smaller percentage of the population? Are the increasing numbers who do not/ cannot own real estate getting wealthier?

    As much of NZ household wealth depends on land. Owning an average unmortaged million dollar house today is equivalent to a $70,000 house 40 odd years ago. I guess you would be wealthier in you moved abroad to a country that has not had such inflationary land values.
    Last edited by Bjauck; 16-05-2019 at 10:54 AM.

  15. #7845
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    I tend to call a spade a spade. If that's what you call "rubbish", be my guest ...
    haha great entertainment. Spade for digging...

    Some people are getting a little desperate for only one point of view around be expressed here. If they had confidence in their position surely they could handle a contrarian points of view.

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