SUM - Summerset Group

[Maverick]

Sales for Q1 soon ......might be a terrific number ...than might not be

Doesn’t really matter which way as numbers weighted to second half of the year anyway

Hey Winner, these particular sales figures matter a lot because SUM had a surplus 133 late deliveries from December that held back their FY18 result. If things are hunky dory then the new sales should be up a lot this quarter as it normally takes about three months to sell a new villa (at least that's the case with ARV).
so ....
A.if the new sales are not significantly up then it will be the first real sign of the property market slowing up or over supply.
B. If new sales are significantly up then SUM is continuing on its fantastic growth path and we should see a fy 19 profit of about $130 million.

[Maverick]

Of the 133 late December fy18 deliveries there is actually only a net 113 surplus above normal stock levels ( by my calcs). If it takes three months avaerage to sell a villa then half of the 113 should have sold = 56
I would normally expect the first quarter sales somewhere around 75.
my expectations are for this quarter sales to be 75+ 56 =131.
Thats a huge call I know , so it will be very interesting to see how it actually works out.
IF , and that's a big IF, the sales are anywhere close to 131 that will be a huge jump from normal. So then the share price should surely see some nice action.( and just maybe ARV + OCA ).

[winner69]

Of the 133 late December fy18 deliveries there is actually only a net 113 surplus above normal stock levels ( by my calcs). If it takes three months avaerage to sell a villa then half of the 113 should have sold = 56
I would normally expect the first quarter sales somewhere around 75.
my expectations are for this quarter sales to be 75+ 56 =131.
Thats a huge call I know , so it will be very interesting to see how it actually works out.
IF , and that's a big IF, the sales are anywhere close to 131 that will be a huge jump from normal. So then the share price should surely see some nice action.( and just maybe ARV + OCA ).

Jeez that 131 is nearly double last year’s 68

Oyster and chips for lunch down the beach if that is the case

WOW

[Beagle]

Jeez that 131 is nearly double last year’s 68

Oyster and chips for lunch down the beach if that is the case

WOW

Yeap, save it up for 30 April and Couta1 and I will come and join you

[LAC]

131 wow that would insane but unrealistic from the sales performance over the last few results. A great long term hold and they will just build and sell as the demand grows over time. But expecting doubling of sales wont happen (I wish it does lol) but be prepared for satisfactory sales, the residential markets have turned significantly. So much so that even I have looked at buying property because of value.

[Beagle]

Hey Couta1. RYM $12.49 now as I type. Mid point of your world famous Couta1 reversion theory at 55% suggest fair value for SUM is $6.87.
SUMwhat cheap eh TA looks okay and FA looks fantastic. Share buy-back of over 500,000 shares to happen on or around 5 April, see company news recently and Q1 sales due imminently. All the encouragement one should need eh mate
A really good Q1 sales result could see this burst up above $7 almost in the blink of an eye...

[macduffy]

Interesting speculation on Q1 sales these days. Just remember though that sales require demand as well as completion of units.

[winner69]

Less total sales in Q1 than last year ...hmm

I think Maverick has a puzzle to solve (properly this time)

No worries though ....’consistent with last year ‘ and ‘tracking well ‘ and we know sales are weighted to second half of year

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...995/297965.pdf

[minimoke]

“We continue to have low levels of homes for resale available, with 40 uncontracted homes at 31March compared to 53 at the end of 2018,” said Mr Cook.

[BlackPeter]

“We continue to have low levels of homes for resale available, with 40 uncontracted homes at 31March compared to 53 at the end of 2018,” said Mr Cook.

Well, I guess looking at the sales trend (below a rolling total over the last 4 years) - it is hard to identify any uptrend in the sales numbers.

+SUMSELL.PNG

On the other hand - they did deliver a good number of additional units every year and the number of uncontracted units is minute - i.e. the problem can't be a lack of demand.

Maybe this is indicating that people like SUM units that much that they just live a bit longer (reducing the unit resales) in them ... but this would be a good thing, wouldn't it? Maybe an idea for their marketing department to utilise.

On the other hand - while the total annual sales numbers did hardly change since 2015 (well - 574 end of Q1 2016 to 634 this quarter) - EPS went up from 39 cents in 2015 to 97 cents in 2018. This is a revenue CAGR of more than 30% despite only slightly increased sales numbers.

Maybe we can forgive a company with a forward PE of less than 10 if the earnings growth stays just around or slightly above a CAGR of 30 ... though obviously - they could do better, couldn't they ?