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  1. #7251
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    I just had to buy SUM, gotta back my own theorum which hasn't failed for near 7 yrs now.Lol

  2. #7252
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Its right at the bottom of the 50-60% relative to RYM, Couta1 reversion channel so you can't go wrong mate
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #7253
    percy
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    A friend of mine is buying a unit at SUM's Russley new village.
    6 people were looking at the unit she is buying.
    She went to the top of que as she did not need to sell her house to settle.
    In fact her house is in the trust,so she had to sell her own shares to pay for it.

  4. #7254
    Membaa
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Well, I guess looking at the sales trend (below a rolling total over the last 4 years) - it is hard to identify any uptrend in the sales numbers.

    Attachment 10442

    On the other hand - they did deliver a good number of additional units every year and the number of uncontracted units is minute - i.e. the problem can't be a lack of demand.
    Looking at the new_sales & resales by themselves, without looking at the total units growth, appears to create a slightly confusing picture. Perhaps if sales were plotted as a ratio of total units, that might show a clearer picture of whether sales volumes are trending healthily or otherwise. I don't have the numbers handy to test that.

  5. #7255
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    Hey Winner, these particular sales figures matter a lot because SUM had a surplus 133 late deliveries from December that held back their FY18 result. If things are hunky dory then the new sales should be up a lot this quarter as it normally takes about three months to sell a new villa (at least that's the case with ARV).
    so ....
    A.if the new sales are not significantly up then it will be the first real sign of the property market slowing up or over supply.
    B. If new sales are significantly up then SUM is continuing on its fantastic growth path and we should see a fy 19 profit of about $130 million.
    It would appear that option A is now unfolding. It is too soon to panic yet but it looks like the first canary in the coal mine has fallen off his perch.
    I am very disappointed and concerned after these results.
    The next step for me is to find out why the unsold new stock is piling up and if it's a sistemic problem or just a timing thing. Interesting that they have low numbers of empty resale units but a truck load of empty new stuff.
    Beagle, I will now definitely be seeing you in Wellies later this month at the meeting.
    Last edited by Maverick; 05-04-2019 at 10:45 AM.

  6. #7256
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I just had to buy SUM, gotta back my own theorum which hasn't failed for near 7 yrs now.Lol
    Careful mate

    The average in that time has been about 50% and it has been in the low 40s on occasions (just like it’s been to 60% plus at times)

    Often reversion to the mean means overshooting on the down side.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #7257
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Its right at the bottom of the 50-60% relative to RYM, Couta1 reversion channel so you can't go wrong mate
    Range is 40% to 60% with average about 50% ...take care
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #7258
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    It would appear that option A is now unfolding. It is too soon to panic yet but it looks like the first canary in the coal mine has fallen off his perch.
    I am very disappointed and concerned after these results.
    The next step for me is to find out why the unsold new stock is piling up and if it's a sistemic problem or just a timing thing. Interesting that they have low numbers of empty resale units but a truck load of empty new stuff.
    Beagle, I will now definitely be seeing you in Wellies later this month at the meeting.
    In the mean time OCA care suites still selling like hot cakes.Lol.PS-Looking forward to catching up with you in WGTN.

  9. #7259
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Its just taking longer for people to sell their homes so they can move into a SUM unit. This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.
    A new opportunity for HGH - providing bridging finance so people can snap up one of the few remaining (40) SUM units

  10. #7260
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    It would appear that option A is now unfolding. It is too soon to panic yet but it looks like the first canary in the coal mine has fallen off his perch.
    I am very disappointed and concerned after these results.
    The next step for me is to find out why the unsold new stock is piling up and if it's a sistemic problem or just a timing thing. Interesting that they have low numbers of empty resale units but a truck load of empty new stuff.
    Beagle, I will now definitely be seeing you in Wellies later this month at the meeting.
    Look forward to it mate, I have my flights booked and Couta1 is on board so he'll be there. I think its simply a timing thing, taking longer for people to sell their homes.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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