SUM - Summerset Group

[notooshabby]

Stick with it why worry about 10c or so if your in it for the long haul,the above thinking has left me high and dry on a few occasions when it comes to this kind of stock,exit and you might regret it

Thanks. Yeah not too worried by small movements. Just not as clued up on the fundamentals of this stock and sector as I'd like - so tends to make one a little more jumpy!!

[winner69]

Technical's create volatility allowing investors opportunities to enter, to exit and inconsequentially to gravitate the share price back to fundamental value, isn’t that how markets work.

So where is Summerset at;

- Award winning sales and marketing advantage over the competition, some including myself would say that this alone makes them the ‘best in breed’ within the sector.

- The market demographic is aging, and in addition, the wealthiest generation in history, the baby boomers, the oldest of which are now 69, are about to move all that cash into this sector. The wealthier individuals will be looking for the ‘best in breed’ aged care, why should they not have it in Summerset.

- Summerset have the highest rate of growth within sector, and that growth rate is accelerating. Forward new build growth is 25% for the next two years, and in addition, we should anticipate increasing resale growth as all those villages built two years prior at that growth rate now start to turnover occupancy.

- They have the largest land bank within the sector mostly in the key larger cities. I would not be surprised to see a growth rate above 300 units p.a announced at some point for FY16.

- Gross and net margins are improving very quickly despite the high rate of growth. I’m looking for a continuation of this improvement again at reporting in ten day’s time.

- I have a HY14 DCF valuation for SUM of $4.20 (+28%).

DISC: Buy

What's the sensitivities around the discount rates in your DCF valuation?

How much does a 1% higher number reduce your valuation

[MAC]

What's the sensitivities around the discount rates in your DCF valuation?

How much does a 1% higher number reduce your valuation

Yes, like all analysts I apply forward discount rates with interest rate forecasts in mind Winner.

[winner69]

Yes, like all analysts I apply forward discount rates with interest rate forecasts in mind Winner.

I knew you would be doing this

My question was what does your $4.20 become if the discount rate is say 1% higher or lower (albeit from high interest rates, change in risk premiums or whatever)

Just interested around the sensitivities

[Beagle]

This is becoming a very frustrating stock to own. Another day, more good news and another reduction is share price....go figure ???

[alistair85]

Can anyone give any reasonable explanation as to why the price has dropped so much the last couple days only 10 days or so out from the financial report, which from what I have heard should be positive.. Maybe it's not going to be quite as positive as what everyone thinks?? Inside trading? Somethings up and I cannot put my finger on it. I never thought we'd see below 3.30 again!!

[couta1]

You guys need to look at the charts and realise that traders have been ruling this stock for awhile, going through 2-3 month cycles which are clear as day. I've pointed it out before, have a look back.

Yep Moosie I think you can see this in this whole sector especially over the last couple of weeks,there's been some big volume days plus big individual sales over at Rym this last week for the observant,I think there's a lot of small sellers of Sum who don't understand the value and long term nature of the stock,as for a comment I saw somewhere on here quite a while ago that these stocks are no good for traders,that's nonsense,in fact if I was trading seriously these stocks and the likes of Tel would be near the top of my list as you know if you get it wrong you only have to bide your time to get out of jail IMHO

[fiasco]

Definitely need to read the charts, if you don't understand spend more time doing analysis and research before investing. The last 10 pages should be a wealth of information, plus SUM's website (awards, reports etc). Glad they got the go ahead with NP. I purchased a little bit more today, think that will do it.

Completely agree with your couta1 and moosie_900. The evidence is all there, it's all about patiences!! Stocks actually do go down and up!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Yep Moosie I think you can see this in this whole sector especially over the last couple of weeks,there's been some big volume days plus big individual sales over at Rym this last week for the observant,I think there's a lot of small sellers of Sum who don't understand the value and long term nature of the stock,as for a comment I saw somewhere on here quite a while ago that these stocks are no good for traders,that's nonsense,in fact if I was trading seriously these stocks and the likes of Tel would be near the top of my list as you know if you get it wrong you only have to bide your time to get out of jail IMHO

No good (and profitable) trader bides their time to get out of jail. Losses are cut short, no excuses.

[Beagle]

I agree the stock has moved in a clear wave pattern and its clear that ACC have been the biggest trader of the lot but if you subscribe to this theory I would have thought sitting right on the bottom of the trading channell and right on the 100 day moving average line that ACC and other large traders would have been buying this stock in volume at present prices of circa $3.30 especially after a more than 10% pullback from $3.75 less than a month ago and five minutes so too speak before the annual result, but they've been completly AWOL ? Its either a great buy at current prices or there's something that we don't know lurking in the forthcoming annual result. I think its the former.