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  1. #3221
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post

    I know you work on absolute earnings including revaluations, (not underlying), so how does the stock do going forward with less new developments to sell next year and possible devaluations in existing stock ?
    Maybe stuffed

    Possibly like some other stock that is doing well this year with tailwinds of low oil prices and favourable currency impacts that may not be repeated.

    Maybe the 'future' is already priced into both of these stocks
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #3222
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Maybe stuffed

    Possibly like some other stock that is doing well this year with tailwinds of low oil prices and favourable currency impacts that may not be repeated.

    Maybe the 'future' is already priced into both of these stocks
    A somewhat obscure but nevertheless not entirely irrelevant analogy in as much as clearly both stocks currently enjoy strong tailwinds. Interesting to note that one stock is on a consensus current year forecast PE of only 5.5 reflecting potential correction of tailwind factors and the other on a forecast PE of 22, priced at four times the earnings rate while they're both enjoying a year of very strong earnings growth. Food for thought ? you be the judge mate. Both stocks looking to grow EPS ~ 50% this year.

    Harvey, maybe I have this wrong, I don't follow closely anymore. One of the brokers has a build forecast of 400 in FY16...where they are going to build that many I don't know ???
    I would say though that credit where's it due. SUM's development margin has improved significantly and clearly last year's appointment of a procurement manager has worked wonders for their construction costs. MET desperately need to find someone with the same level of skills as a medium term target development margin of 15% which they acknowledge they are likely to undershoot in FY16 is really quite pathetic. Disc - I am also completely out of the retirement sector now. The whole sector is fully priced IMO.

    Bejauck - Agreed. MET most exposed to potential Auckland correction as a percentage of their village portfolio, then SUM then RYM.

    Prospects for Auckland's house prices ? This makes interesting reading and some of the comments hit the nail on the head too, especially the second one down.
    http://www.interest.co.nz/property/7...towards-summer
    Last edited by Beagle; 07-10-2015 at 11:23 AM.

  3. #3223
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harvey Specter View Post
    What is their current pipeline? From memory, their target build rate was far lower than I thought it should be, but probably sensible while they upskill (since bring stuff inhouse like RYM).

    Disc: sold out of all retirement but might start looking again as my situation has changed a bit.
    Latest half year report mentioned a build rate of 400 units for 2016 and going forward. Presumably much of this comes from the Ellerslie units now building and further development at Wigram.
    Last edited by macduffy; 07-10-2015 at 12:40 PM.

  4. #3224
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    Another excellent result by the best in the business.

  5. #3225
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldGuy View Post
    Another excellent result by the best in the business.
    Welcome back New Old Guy, but shouldn't that be second best in the business behind Ryman

  6. #3226
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Welcome back New Old Guy, but shouldn't that be second best in the business behind Ryman
    I just knew that line was coming.....

  7. #3227
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Welcome back New Old Guy, but shouldn't that be second best in the business behind Ryman
    Thank you, sir.

    p.s. Your devotion to Ryman is adorable, but SUM's growth is on a totally different level. 15% or 50%. I know which I like better

  8. #3228
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    It looks like the SUM sp increase was pared back by close of market yesterday. Maybe in the current share market and property market, the retirement sector have to produce profit upgrades just for the share prices to remain about level?

  9. #3229
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    It looks like the SUM sp increase was pared back by close of market yesterday. Maybe in the current share market and property market, the retirement sector have to produce profit upgrades just for the share prices to remain about level?
    I think its because SUM is already 'very well valued' (not quite overvalued) and there seems to be lofty expectations regrading build rate and sales, which so far they have meet... but with a potentially slowing real estate market (well mainly just in Auckland), and increasing villages being built left right and centre (ie more competition) it will become harder to 'deliver' (in my view - over the coming years, maybe not this year or next year, but in the next decade) and of course the dividend alone (which is peanuts) isn't going to be enough to support it, during these potentially questioning times...

    Ryman is "the best in the business" in terms of growth and good management, although SUM isn't far off... (ARV of course still takes the cake from a balance of dividend and growth point of view, and of course in terms of occupation %)

  10. #3230
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    I sense an old battle between OG and TJ about to commence again reading the last bit of the above post, Tui anyone.

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