SUM - Summerset Group

[couta1]

Hmmmmmmm. Well my base case is 2017 underlying earnings of 32 cps, see post #4267 above. At $5 it trades on a current year PE of only 15.6 ! I think this is absurd considering their track record since listing and the demographic tailwinds favoring the sector for at least the next 25 years.

Let it come down a bit more and I'll have to consider doing a Couta1

Do it mate, you know overdiversification is highly overrated.

[Beagle]

Keeping powder dry at this stage mate. Lets see what Julian Cook has to say on 27 April on the record during the meeting and any other information we can "hound" him for afterwards
If it wants to fall further between now and then I won't be one of the ones panic selling.

[JeremyALD]

My only concern is if there is a big housing correction how much the SP will fall. It's clear people will sell this down if that happens.

[winner69]

Only 8% off recent high .......but those holding whose actions are guided by 100MA and 200MA must be getting a bit tetchy

[sideline]

My only concern is if there is a big housing correction how much the SP will fall. It's clear people will sell this down if that happens.

A look at the charts tells me that RYM,SUM and MET appear to all have got LOWER highs in Mar 17 after peaking in Sep 16, perhaps starting a downtrend.

One question is on my mind regarding this sector which I haven't seen discussed here: In 2014 aged care worker Christine Bartlett won her case for equal pay in women dominated professions which could greatly affect the cost structure of rest home care. This is slowly working its way through legislation at the moment.
Do posters here see this change affecting the profitabilities of the rest home village operators in a major way??

[percy]

No as the majority of their profits are made in developement and resales.

[Baa_Baa]

Only 8% off recent high .......but those holding whose actions are guided by 100MA and 200MA must be getting a bit tetchy

That lower high put in a top that set a new down trend line. I had to delete all my trend lines and channels which were previously pretty reliable, and reset them, currently the long term up trend (log scale) is around about 4.80 so todays close is nearby though that's still below all the major MA/EMA's. Interesting for the TA's, the recent low was smack on the 38.2% fib retrace.

I wonder whether SUM is doing the RYM thing, that Roger and Winner talked about for a few years and has played out pretty much as they described ... that SUM in this case, might have got hyped to perfection and is now trying to find fair value again. The market may be forward looking but it's not stupid enough to ignore the ST ramping effect when there's plenty profits to be scalped.

Anyway, there's a ton of support at those MA/EMA's below here and the longer term rising trend line. If it naffed all of those then that would be a source of concern, otherwise as they say a 'healthy correction' (gag).

[sideline]

No as the majority of their profits are made in developement and resales.

Yes, but what happens if their wage bill goes up by 10-15% because of this - especially for operators who can't immediately
pass on those costs because they guarantee to 'never raise the fees' during occupancy (Ryman, I believe).

[couta1]

No as the majority of their profits are made in developement and resales.

It could have the potential to hit companies with less development involvement, but this would be overridden by the necessity of the Govt to increase its funding level to the sector to stop the not for profits going to the wall.

[couta1]

Yes, but what happens if their wage bill goes up by 10-15% because of this - especially for operators who can't immediately
pass on those costs because they guarantee to 'never raise the fees' during occupancy (Ryman, I believe).

Your mixing up the fees payable by those in Apartments(No rise guarantee) with fees for the care centre residents(Rise annually as set by the DHB's)