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  1. #4531
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Three trading days confirmed breech of 100 day MA is what's required for me to trigger a TA sell signal. Most times I follow unless I believe the fundamental long term valuation story is simply too good
    I just knew you would come up with an escape clause.

  2. #4532
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    Just picked up some more. Fundamentals are sound and I'm holding these for my own retirement so not too concerned with some downside now and again. Waiting for OCA tomorrow but maybe not a great time to open with this sector taking a bath? I dont mind accumulating RYM, MET and SUM if they keep dropping

  3. #4533
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Three trading days confirmed breech of 100 day MA is what's required for me to trigger a TA sell signal. Most times I follow unless I believe the fundamental long term valuation story is simply too good
    On my high "conviction" stocks such as SUM,HBL,EBO,THL, and TNR I would need the 200 day EMA to be soundly broken.
    Then I would review my research,before deciding to sell or not.
    On stocks I am not sure about, I would consider selling using 100 day EMA,as a sell signal.
    I do use the 100 day EMA when considering purchasing a stock.
    But wait there's more.I usually back test a stock, to see what EMA has had a history of being right for that stock.
    Last edited by percy; 04-05-2017 at 01:04 PM.

  4. #4534
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I just knew you would come up with an escape clause.
    Creative Accounting 101 Like many on here I'm holding these for my retirement in more ways than one. I think Julian's developed nicely as a CEO albeit with some help from helpful shareholders from time to time and the caliber of the board and breath of experience is first class as I am sure you agree mate.

    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    On high "conviction" stocks such as SUM,HBL or TNR I would need the 200 day EMA to be soundly broken.
    Then I would review my research,before deciding to sell or not.
    Agreed Percy although after the meeting I've already reviewed my forecast as posted earlier today. I think the current sell down is based on the fact that the disclosure made at the annual meeting is perceived as a serious headwind for the company whereas I see it as simply an opportunity for the company to reevaluate its marketing methodology, i.e. fixed price weekly fees for life.
    I think the board and management can be trusted to adapt to the changing market conditions in Auckland and continue their growth path.
    SUM now trades at a forward PE based on underlying earnings below the average for the NZX50.

    I suspect some of the hot money is exiting SUM and some people are priming the pump for Oceania tomorrow.
    Last edited by Beagle; 04-05-2017 at 01:06 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #4535
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Creative Accounting 101 Like many on here I'm holding these for my retirement in more ways than one. I think Julian's developed nicely as a CEO albeit with some help from helpful shareholders from time to time and the caliber of the board and breath of experience is first class as I am sure you agree mate.



    Agreed Percy although after the meeting I've already reviewed my forecast as posted earlier today. I think the current sell down is based on the fact that the disclosure made at the annual meeting is perceived as a serious headwind for the company whereas I see it as simply an opportunity for the company to reevaluate its marketing methodology, i.e. fixed price weekly fees for life.
    I think the board and management can be trusted to adapt to the changing market conditions in Auckland and continue their growth path.
    SUM now trades at a forward PE based on underlying earnings below the average for the NZX50.
    I totally agree with your analysis.

  6. #4536
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    My thoughts are that this recent dip amongst MET/SUM/RYM is due to recent property sales metrics released. Auckland has seen both a reduced sales price and listing volumes for April, although partly to blame is school hols. and a few long weekends I suspect. Have a read of the NBR article from yesterday for more info.

    The listed prop. funds have tumbled down in the last few months which promotes the idea that this lacking momentum in the SP is due to property concerns amongst the market. ARV has retained its high price recently, so the idea of investors switching from the currently listed retirement stocks into OCA seems a bit far-fetched as I believe ARV ranks higher in the books than OCA. The combination of ARV having low property exposure added to the fact they are a close relative to OCA, means that property is the major concern.

    SUM are arguably more heavily invested/leveraged in the development side of things, especially in Auckland, which most likely explains Mr Market's enthusiasm for it now. I believe the poor April data is a one-off and the market is taking this as a complete trend reversal, effectively re-pricing this into the sector.

  7. #4537
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    I suspect some of the hot money is exiting SUM and some people are priming the pump for Oceania tomorrow
    Yes, a lot of it might be 'hot' - in the sense of looking for a quick buck, not in the 'hot/illegal' sense - and therefore may find its way back to SUM when the market settles around OCA. Meanwhile, I'm not in a hurry to add SUM more but there will be a time to do so.

  8. #4538
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Apart from that one big sale yesterday pre open, the stock is falling on low volume, mainly small holders doing the selling. PS-She's going sub $5 for sure.
    Not quite...here are few big ones..

    8 93 2:21:08 pm 500 50,000 $250,000 Off Market
    1 108 3:21:16 pm 500 137,000 $685,000 Off Market

  9. #4539
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    One good thing about being in the Red on a stock like Sum is, you can just relax, sit back and let a temporal blip as is currently happening simply pass ,as it gives way to the gale force tailwinds and those thousands of elderly folk looking to buy Sum units as a lifestyle choice.

  10. #4540
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    One good thing about being in the Red on a stock like Sum is, you can just relax, sit back and let a temporal blip as is currently happening simply pass ,as it gives way to the gale force tailwinds and those thousands of elderly folk looking to buy Sum units as a lifestyle choice.
    I agree Couta. Look forward to seeing where this is at in a few months.

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