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  1. #4641
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    If sector continues to get rerated down 450 is on cards

    Before the last few years excitement about the sector PEs averaged mid to late teens - maybe we are reverting to more normal / sensible valuations
    Hmm - SUM has (at 492) a forward PE off 11.1 combined with a forward CAGR of 17.6. I would not see this valuation as "unreasonable" (other than maybe unreasonably cheap), but agreed - the market is free to pick any valuation standard they like, maybe we can get the shares in some days / weeks still cheaper, maybe not.

    Still - I don't see at this stage a good reason to sell my SUM shares. I do see them as undervalued and am rather sure that the market will mid and longterm come back to the party.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #4642
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    BP - PE mentioned on underlying earnings
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #4643
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    BP - PE mentioned on underlying earnings
    Don't do underlying earnings. Underlying earnings might be in some cases useful for comparisons - or maybe not. However, what really counts are the numbers under the bottom line .
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #4644
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Don't do underlying earnings. Underlying earnings might be in some cases useful for comparisons - or maybe not. However, what really counts are the numbers under the bottom line .
    I agree - thats what I prefer

    Real investment managers (not the broker types) tend us price book ratios - and that includes the realised and unrealised bits. After all if the house hat cost me 1/2 million is worth say a million it's worth a million - not 1/2 million plus unrealised gains of 1/2 million if you get the gist of what I'm trying to say.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #4645
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    Quote Originally Posted by James108 View Post
    I don't agree, the more information we have the better, maybe they need to clarify the risk.
    The info SUM gave is a bit like a fit athlete saying he may not do well in the race he is about to run because there is a bit of wind blowing.

  6. #4646
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    This one is making me a bit nervous. I feel very over exposed to SUM and I didn't expect it to fall below $5 again.
    I'm more disappointed in myself for not taking the meeting ques and loading up, rather than waiting. Will be fine given time but I hate sitting on a large SUM of dead money that could be put to use elsewhere.

  7. #4647
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I'm more disappointed in myself for not taking the meeting ques and loading up, rather than waiting. Will be fine given time but I hate sitting on a large SUM of dead money that could be put to use elsewhere.
    Does not worry me,as time is the friend of a good company,and enemy of a poor company.SUM is a good company, so I remain "well positioned."

  8. #4648
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    Default Better elsewhere?

    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I'm more disappointed in myself for not taking the meeting ques and loading up, rather than waiting. Will be fine given time but I hate sitting on a large SUM of dead money that could be put to use elsewhere.
    I don't believe the shorterism I am seeing with sharetrader posts. We are talking a couple of months of a 10% correction. Maybe it turns out to be 20%. The long term is the goal for me in this one, and all I hope for is that the more it goes down, the more shares I can accumulate and the lower the next Divi Reinvestment will be. Uncertainties will always be there. It's like a daily beating game and I try to focus on the long term. Maybe that's why I don't watch T.V and try to look for inspiration more in what is happening globally. Trends, forecasts and so on. Mostly I check out weather forecasts ... they are as unpredictable as anything.

    The SUM will come up, maybe not tomorrow, yet it will happen

  9. #4649
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    Quote Originally Posted by Food4Thought View Post
    I don't believe the shorterism I am seeing with sharetrader posts. We are talking a couple of months of a 10% correction. Maybe it turns out to be 20%. The long term is the goal for me in this one, and all I hope for is that the more it goes down, the more shares I can accumulate and the lower the next Divi Reinvestment will be. Uncertainties will always be there. It's like a daily beating game and I try to focus on the long term. Maybe that's why I don't watch T.V and try to look for inspiration more in what is happening globally. Trends, forecasts and so on. Mostly I check out weather forecasts ... they are as unpredictable as anything.

    The SUM will come up, maybe not tomorrow, yet it will happen
    I agree with what your saying, im just hard on myself in the sense that I knew the price was going to drop after the AGM but loaded up instead of waiting a bit. PS-I said put to use elsewhere(Meantime) not better elsewhere.

  10. #4650
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Hmm - SUM has (at 492) a forward PE off 11.1 combined with a forward CAGR of 17.6. I would not see this valuation as "unreasonable" (other than maybe unreasonably cheap), but agreed - the market is free to pick any valuation standard they like, maybe we can get the shares in some days / weeks still cheaper, maybe not.

    Still - I don't see at this stage a good reason to sell my SUM shares. I do see them as undervalued and am rather sure that the market will mid and longterm come back to the party.
    Forward of PE of 11.1 implies EPS in F17 of 44 cents (on NPAT seeing you don't do underlying stuff)

    But last year EPS was 67 cents

    You borrowed t_j's abacus or something

    SUM ridiculously underpriced at the moment


    Footnote - since 2002 RYM has averaged a PE of 16 on real earnings
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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