SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

In answer to your request for me to be clear JT. The facts as best as I recall them. We saw an absolute barrage of negativity towards AIR late last year when in and around the $1.70-$1.80 mark and prior to that which very suddenly completely dried up shortly afterwards. Subsequent SP action of AIR shares speaks for itself and anyone who listened to that negativity has cost themselves plenty. I see a similar level of negativity expressed here by many, some of whom have replicated their earlier behavior. Whether some of those people hold / held a short position in AIR and now SUM is perhaps something people might want to consider. I'll leave it at that. People should absolutely DYOR.

[winner69]

On reflection, I think the likely interest rate for the bonds will probably not tempt me to buy them rather than increase my shareholding. I think the bond issue at the likely interest rate is a good move and increases the appeal to top up my shareholding.

Better off owning a retirement village than depositing money (a bond) in a retirement village

Same goes for banks




Most of the time that is

[Joshuatree]

In answer to your request for me to be clear JT. The facts as best as I recall them. We saw an absolute barrage of negativity towards AIR late last year when in and around the $1.70-$1.80 mark and prior to that which very suddenly completely dried up shortly afterwards. Subsequent SP action of AIR shares speaks for itself and anyone who listened to that negativity has cost themselves plenty. I see a similar level of negativity expressed here by many, some of whom have replicated their earlier behavior. Whether some of those people hold / held a short position in AIR and now SUM is perhaps something people might want to consider. I'll leave it at that. People should absolutely DYOR.

That has been the one thing I've fought for years ;others attempting to influence, manipulate, sound like a qualified financial adviser, Buy now;" follow me youll be right mate" then posters finding they've quietly sold out etc etc. and vice versa. Im glad it doesn't happen here as much like on H/C but there is always a few without morals when it comes to money and liquidity can be an issue on NZX so one has to always make their own decisions and not allow themselves to be influenced by ANY frequent repetitive influencers.
Being passionate and sharing facts and opinions are appreciated and very different. Manipulators are usually pretty transparent to me and i will make a stand against them. we are pretty fortunate most of the time on share trader. Hope to be in when the T/A etc tells me.

[BlackPeter]

In answer to your request for me to be clear JT. The facts as best as I recall them. We saw an absolute barrage of negativity towards AIR late last year when in and around the $1.70-$1.80 mark and prior to that which very suddenly completely dried up shortly afterwards. Subsequent SP action of AIR shares speaks for itself and anyone who listened to that negativity has cost themselves plenty. I see a similar level of negativity expressed here by many, some of whom have replicated their earlier behavior. Whether some of those people hold / held a short position in AIR and now SUM is perhaps something people might want to consider. I'll leave it at that. People should absolutely DYOR.

Roger, I think you overestimate the impact of this forum on the market. Particularly for AIR have retail investors basically no material impact on the SP - and I doubt the situation for SUM is different. I would be very surprised if institutional investors are reading this forum (other than for entertainment purposes) and they are certainly not buying or selling based on the views disseminated here (actually - nobody should do that). Maybe they use some of the info as trigger to DYOR - and this is, as it should be. So yes, your reminder to DYOR is absolutely appropriate.

Posts, whether positive (up ramping?) or negative (down ramping?) are just that ... in the best case some individuals opinion on the stock and in the worst case somebody's (hopefully) futile attempts to influence others.

The current weakness of REITs and particularly retirement stocks (but then - look at e.g. ARG - and this is not limited to the NZX) is in my view just a general concern about the (overall rather dear) property market and the possibility of rising interest rates. No matter what we individually believe - the market perception does count! However in my view no reason for long term investors to lose sleep.

Discl: hold (L)

[Beagle]

Not at all BP. Retail investors only own 4% of AIR and opinion expressed on here would have no impact whatsoever on the SP, the down-ramping I allege is more annoying than anything else. SUM mainly owned by institutions. GMT has been coming back into form a bit lately on actual and perceived demand for warehouse space, (I hold plenty and have hardly ever talked about them) so the perception of property market weakness is certainly not across the board and as mentioned Treasury's perception is real estate prices across the country will continue to grow. Happy to be long on SUM, long term

[winner69]

When city real estate markets like Vancouver, Toronto, Sydney and Melbourne start showing the same patterns and are source of real concern re impending crashes it’s highly likely you are seeing a major trend emerging ......

.........and then add Auckland to the list

SUM better keep building things fast to mitigate any damage a decent decline in property prices might have.

[000831]

SUM has a project at Wigram Skies in Christchurch. It started two years ago and still have not completed yet. The competitors at this area all started to sell, I remember that they started to build at the same period. Such as Lady Wigram Retirement sold nearly half of the stock and half of the uncompleted stock with contracts.


I have no idea SUM's project. It seems that they just sitting there near the main road empty. Have no idea how bad the project manager is and what's going on with the development????

Wigram Skies is a hot spot in Christchurch property market, at least it still increasing in price with huge demand for local middle class.

[Joshuatree]

[QUOTE=winner69;668554]When city real estate markets like Vancouver, Toronto, Sydney and Melbourne start showing the same patterns and are source of real concern re impending crashes it’s highly likely you are seeing a major trend emerging ......

.........and then add Auckland to the list W69

Yes good point w69,so true; these are some of the things making me a slightly grumpy bear about the big global picture. I know NZ is in a pretty good cycle still but we make up what 0.2% ? of global mkts we would get hit in a big correction/ property crash etc. I was told today (haven't verified)re the debt levels here with the older population was getting very high; i thought that was mainly a younger persons prob.

[Bjauck]

[QUOTE=Joshuatree;668603]

When city real estate markets like Vancouver, Toronto, Sydney and Melbourne start showing the same patterns and are source of real concern re impending crashes it’s highly likely you are seeing a major trend emerging ......

.........and then add Auckland to the list W69

Yes good point w69,so true; these are some of the things making me a slightly grumpy bear about the big global picture. I know NZ is in a pretty good cycle still but we make up what 0.2% ? of global mkts we would get hit in a big correction/ property crash etc. I was told today (haven't verified)re the debt levels here with the older population was getting very high; i thought that was mainly a younger persons prob.

2016 Article (paywalled) about increasing debt in American over 50's: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-yor...-50-1455289257

I would expect NZ over 50's to to have similar debt problems especially with NZ housing being more expensive (relative to income.) If the bank of M&D are expected to help their kids into a house, then they may be tempted to mortgage their ever more valuable mortgageable home (which in NZ tends to be their largest asset by far) to help them get a deposit. I think the volume of residential debt is a cloud on the horizon for companies involved in real estate. As always DYOR.

[percy]

A recent article I read stated the number of people over 50 who were in financial trouble, because they had either gone broke or had a mariage break up was rather high.
Then last night I picked up a property press, listing houses for sale around ChCh.Surprised me every second one was over $650,000.
So as always some people have dough,others don't. SUM villages are full of people who decide to move their.As my brother said to me, when it comes to moving into a retirement village, he will put their house on the market, and meet the market.
As I have often pointed out ,when Nana needs to go into care she needs to go straight away,no matter what the property market is doing.I have also pointed out there are a great number of people who could afford three retirement units ,but only require one.
I should also point out retirement villages sell some units a bit cheaper at the start of construction.This way the buyers can't complain about the noise or disruption caused while the village is being built.We must also remember both SUM and RYM make a good margin by employing their own design and construction staff.A side benefit of this was shown by the fact RYM did not need to bring in outside help, coping with ChCh earthquakes,as they had the right people already onboard.
Both SUM and RYM are the full package.The huge tailwinds in this sector will not alter,no matter what house prices do,Donald Trump tweets ,or the price of fish in Zanzibar is.It is in governments worldwide interest ,for the private sector to help supply residency for the aged.All the noise we make on ST will not stop people aging.
I should also point out the idea of offfering help to people to stay in their own home sounds great,but any one who has experienced this, will know that Nana spends her time talking to the cleaner/care giver,and making him/her a cup of tea and so the work does not get done.Then relations are left to worry whether Nana left the front door open, and the stove on when she went to bed,!
My mother told them she showered every day.Funny, how do you get dust in the shower if you shower everyday.?Did anyone ever check her fridge.All food was past its use by date.!
There is a huge difference between talking about this sector,and having experience of having to put a parent into care.The talk and fine ideas go out the window,Nana needs care NOW.