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02-06-2017, 10:33 AM
#4801
percy, we have one on the go at the moment - those exact same traits, but I'll need to have my wife check the wardrobe!
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02-06-2017, 10:38 AM
#4802
Originally Posted by percy
I think the people who go on about the affect of property prices on this sector have never had to put Nana into care.
Nana's health has never been affected by property prices.Never will.So watch Nana's health and her friends'.They are getting older every day.
Then to confirm this, read what SUM and RYM say about the affect property cycle prices have had on their earnings during the past 20 years,NONE,bearing in mind the huge increases of late of people reaching the age of 70.This is set to further increase over the next 20 years.This sector is the sector that has the biggest tailwinds,which will reach hurricane force in a few years.No stopping it.
100% agree. God's honest truth right there !
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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02-06-2017, 02:42 PM
#4803
The demand far outstrips the supply, dependant on where you live I have been told by someone within the industry. For that reason I know there are so many needed for retirement/care sector units. Their villiage caters for more than just the oldies. Their youngest tenant is I believe 25 years old. For that reason I know it is a massive growth industry. I think people will be kicking themselves waiting for the right time to invest in this business. If you are looking long term the right time I thought it would be now. Of course this is in no way advice it is just my thoughts. Go to a broker and they will tell you to invest in this industry. They even advised to go for PEB, so do your own research before you invest a penny.
Thanks for for your words roger I appreciate your valuable information.
bought another 2000 shares today so I am happy either if it goes up or down, long term it will go up I am sure of that.
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02-06-2017, 06:12 PM
#4804
Member
The market aint going to like this
Originally Posted by percy
Forget property prices.Just think of falling off a mountain.Your decent may be slowed down if you hit a bluff,but just slowed down ,not stopped.
RYM and SUM at present have strong tailwinds which I said were developing into hurricane forces.Any slow down, such as another GFC, or the price of fish in Zanzibar, will be just "the lull before the storm."
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20..._136104896.htm
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02-06-2017, 07:31 PM
#4805
Originally Posted by Harley
"To be forewarned is to be forearmed",
Therefore, the illegal dynamite,gun and spear fishing in Zanibar comes as no surprise to us,as we have been expecting this "Black Swan".
The ripple affect causing a rise in the price of fish,may only mean fish is off the menu at RYM and SUM villages.
I see this benefitting long suffering TGH shareholders, as RYM and SUM replace fish, with chicken on their menus.
The share prices of RYM and SUM will rebound very quickly.With NZ market being closed on Monday, there may even be no effect at all.
We therefore remain "well positioned."
Last edited by percy; 02-06-2017 at 07:48 PM.
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02-06-2017, 07:56 PM
#4806
Originally Posted by percy
"To be forewarned is to be forearmed",
Full on lol at your post percy.
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02-06-2017, 09:59 PM
#4807
- This paragraph from my brokers monthly summary i find of int
"At the same time, REINZ data for April provided further evidence the housing market is slowing,particularly in Auckland. The Auckland median house price fell 5.6% in April, which saw theannual gain decline to 3.0%, well below the strength of recent years. The number of Aucklandproperties for sale was 39% higher than a year ago, while the number of days to sell alsoincreased. This time, it feels like the weakness in house prices will continue, rather than be a blip."
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03-06-2017, 08:02 PM
#4808
Member
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
- This paragraph from my brokers monthly summary i find of int
"At the same time, REINZ data for April provided further evidence the housing market is slowing,particularly in Auckland. The Auckland median house price fell 5.6% in April, which saw theannual gain decline to 3.0%, well below the strength of recent years. The number of Aucklandproperties for sale was 39% higher than a year ago, while the number of days to sell alsoincreased. This time, it feels like the weakness in house prices will continue, rather than be a blip."
How does this relate to SUM though? Pretty sure this has been discussed already.
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05-06-2017, 03:13 PM
#4809
Property market has flattened in Auckland at this point which in my opinion and has already been discussed ad nauseum. Article in the herald today referencing minor 1-2% moves one way or the other in various area's of the Auckland market over the last 3 months. No massive falls as some are trying to sensationalize. Speculation on future price movements is exactly that, pure speculation. A reminder, SUM has just 4 out of 21 villages (completed or in the process of being completed), in Auckland.
I have them on a forward PE of just over 15.
Last edited by Beagle; 05-06-2017 at 03:29 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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05-06-2017, 07:53 PM
#4810
Looking at the 5 year chart for Ryman, it's clear the Org/stock went from grow quickly pre 2014 to the current mature stage of growth and optomisation for scale. SP since 2014 has fluctuated around the 8.20 pricepoint +-30 relatively consistently.
So, I have been wondering about SUM and whether it's going to follow a similar trajectory and level out $5 to $5.50 range for next 24 months. Yes, I'm a holder so I hope for more. I appreciate sector tailwinds, I can see their past 5 years business performance... I just wonder if there is a market confidence & maturity/bedding in for this type of stock.
What's also on my mind is the effect that the competition and growth within the sector participants is having on each other. What if Ryman had continued to be the scale operator and the other operators had remained at status quo circa 2014. Would have expected Ryman SP to be greater than it is now under that scenario. The fact that all operators are essentially expanding green and brown fields by and large...maybe a dampener across them all to expand in similar step / rhythm?
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