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05-06-2017, 09:20 PM
#4811
Originally Posted by Elles
How does this relate to SUM though? Pretty sure this has been discussed already.
You do know SUM is a property stock.? Naturally ,property valuations will be an ongoing discussion.
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05-06-2017, 10:07 PM
#4812
Read the financials
Originally Posted by hamish
Looking at the 5 year chart for Ryman, it's clear the Org/stock went from grow quickly pre 2014 to the current mature stage of growth and optomisation for scale. SP since 2014 has fluctuated around the 8.20 pricepoint +-30 relatively consistently...
The share price and the financial performance of any company are not necessarily that well correlated.
Essentially Ryman has been achieving reasonably consistent year on year growth for many, many years.
However the share price got well ahead of itself several years ago and the two are still re-syncing themselves.
Keep on with the 'Always Learning' and read the company reports.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Meanwhile back at Summerset the all night pool parties are about to start....
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06-06-2017, 08:26 AM
#4813
Originally Posted by mcdongle
Just spoke to my broker he thinks 4.5 to 4.7%.
Would you expect the shares to perform better than this anyone?
Posted 31 May.
Thank you for sharing and it seems your information was good. Margin will be 1.85 - 2.0% over 6 year swap rate subject to minimum of 4.7%.
Interesting that this is substantially below Infratil's 5.5 year market offer of (if I remember correctly 5.65%) giving something of an insight into how the market perceives the relative merits of these two companies and their debt profiles. https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/302171
I will answer your question with another...Is the Pope a Catholic
Last edited by Beagle; 06-06-2017 at 08:31 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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06-06-2017, 08:51 AM
#4814
Originally Posted by Roger
Posted 31 May.
Thank you for sharing and it seems your information was good. Margin will be 1.85 - 2.0% over 6 year swap rate subject to minimum of 4.7%.
Interesting that this is substantially below Infratil's 5.5 year market offer of (if I remember correctly 5.65%) giving something of an insight into how the market perceives the relative merits of these two companies and their debt profiles. https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/302171
I will answer your question with another...Is the Pope a Catholic
That 4.7% bit mean when ANZ offers 4.3% 5 year term deposit
Hope SUM don't go much above that number - as shareholder don't want them paying any more interest than need to eh
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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06-06-2017, 11:49 AM
#4815
Auckland house prices rise 2.8% in May. Wonder what straw those with a negative view on this sector will try and grasp at next ? http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...tings-risehtml
I am modelling flat Auckland house prices in real inflation adjusted terms going forward and 3% real growth throughout the rest of the country for the foreseeable future. This gives me underlying EPS of 32 cps for 2017 (using a steady as per last year) development margin of 22% on 450 units. SUM confirmed at the recent annual meeting their build rate and development margin are tracking in line with expectations and I note they have an excellent multi year history of slightly beating build rate guidance.
Very wise strategy locking in some of their funding at under 5% for 6 years.
So now its clear that real estate isn't falling off the edge of a cliff, (in fact Treasury in their annual budget are expecting a 7.8% increase for the year ahead at a national level) we are left to ponder why people are so keen to keep selling this stock on a forward PE of just on 15 ?
Possible reasons
1. Obviously a lot are not cognisant of expected growth this year, I expect SUM will issue guidance for Fy17 around a similar time as last year so that solves that issue in due course
2. Its a second half story more than first half, (company says more developed units in second half), so maybe people are selling to invest in something else and will get back in later in the year ?
3. Concerns over their business model in terms of Auckland developments and costs of construction. This appears likely to be the villain of the piece but maybe those concerns are a little overdone...
Last edited by Beagle; 06-06-2017 at 12:27 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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06-06-2017, 11:58 AM
#4816
Originally Posted by Roger
Interesting that this is substantially below Infratil's 5.5 year market offer of (if I remember correctly 5.65%) giving something of an insight into how the market perceives the relative merits of these two companies and their debt profiles.
The differential will largely relate to their being secured, and unsubordinated cf IFT the opposite of those. The SUM bonds actually rank pari passu with bank debt, which, although a 2nd mortgage , falls only behind the Public Trusts 1st mortgage holding security for the residents with their 'right to occupy'.
So it sort of all adds up... in my view, anyway.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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06-06-2017, 02:05 PM
#4817
Originally Posted by peat
The differential will largely relate to their being secured, and unsubordinated cf IFT the opposite of those. The SUM bonds actually rank pari passu with bank debt, which, although a 2nd mortgage , falls only behind the Public Trusts 1st mortgage holding security for the residents with their 'right to occupy'.
So it sort of all adds up... in my view, anyway.
Yes, that makes sense to me. Still prefer the shares though so I'll hang out for the trend to reverse before buying a few more.
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06-06-2017, 02:10 PM
#4818
Member
Just drove past the Ryman development in One Tree Hill and it reminded me to buy more SUM. This and RYM are in the best position the next 5 years or so with SUM in NZ and RYM in NZ/AUS I feel. Then again I am no expert but this sector will take me from 40 to 60 and give me a massive retirement income. Not concerned at price at present - only matters for my Margin account! No ne has talked about takeovers in this sector. Surely it is ripe for someone to jump in at these multiples and get some consolidation of costs going?
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06-06-2017, 04:28 PM
#4819
Originally Posted by peat
The differential will largely relate to their being secured, and unsubordinated cf IFT the opposite of those. The SUM bonds actually rank pari passu with bank debt, which, although a 2nd mortgage , falls only behind the Public Trusts 1st mortgage holding security for the residents with their 'right to occupy'.
So it sort of all adds up... in my view, anyway.
Nil brokerage payable by SUM, (makes life a bit harder for you), but IFT offering 1.5%, not too shabby seeing as most clients fill out the forms and do the work themselves
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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06-06-2017, 07:05 PM
#4820
Nil brokerage payable by investors is my understanding.
So everyone can be a winner.
The feeling is that the recent flurry of bonds might lessen the takeup of these but in some ways they are a good bond , with something behind them that kiwis love, namely bricks and mortar.
There's still a chance the rate might be set a little higher if demand is low
I feel they would do pretty well if they had set the minimum at 5.0%
Last edited by peat; 06-06-2017 at 07:14 PM.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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