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  1. #4841
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    At least SUM multiples are less than RYMs are.

    Sort of reassuring

    If the market continues to mark done the sector SUM got less to fall than RYMS

    But any blip will be short term .....in a few years time (or sooner) we'll wonder what all the fuss was about

    No worries

  2. #4842
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    At least SUM multiples are less than RYMs are.

    Sort of reassuring

    If the market continues to mark done the sector SUM got less to fall than RYMS

    But any blip will be short term .....in a few years time (or sooner) we'll wonder what all the fuss was about

    No worries
    A bit like Air a year ago aye winner, now all ancient history. Another classic example, look at what CNU is trading at now, most never would have believed it 3 years ago, including myself.
    Last edited by couta1; 08-06-2017 at 01:47 PM.

  3. #4843
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Have you ever considered that SUM other companies may also not hit their target build rates?
    The market clear has...
    May also not hit is not the same as actually not hitting as in Rymans last result. Have you ever considered that the market can be both irrational and unintelligent at times?
    Last edited by couta1; 08-06-2017 at 03:48 PM.

  4. #4844
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    A bit like Air a year ago aye winner, now all ancient history. Another classic example, look at what CNU is trading at now, most never would have believed it 3 years ago, including myself.
    Too true-I tried hard to convince you about CNU 3 years ago.
    Now I am sold out at a good profit{more than double the sp paid)
    Looking at SUM but not yet convinced-I have the feeling directors are overpaid and so are probably management.
    Will probably buy if the sp falls enough.
    I like dividends and growth
    At what level would people buy?

  5. #4845
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    You did well there fish, it's hard to convince inexperience coupled with fear.

  6. #4846
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    May also not hit is not the same as actually not hitting as in Rymans last result. Have you ever considered that the market can be both irrational and unintelligent at times?
    Yes, absolutely, look no further than Flexigroup in Australia... record profit every year, nice dividend to match, yet now trades at a PE of 7.0 and the share price is less than a third it was in 2013... anyway other issues could be at play there. (I am sure there are many other stocks that some people would consider "both irrational and unintelligent" at times... this probably warrants an entire other thread!!)

    Just find it interesting how the market seems to be miss pricing SUM stocks for a pretty long period of time... (assuming Efficient Market Hypothesis is totally irrelevant in SUM or FXL's case of course)

    As for Ryman, the biggest share price fall occurred right before results... and the share price today isn't much different to that on results day (few cents I think)... ie it was already priced in... one might then say, a good guess that they are going to miss something, may just be right.
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 08-06-2017 at 06:33 PM.

  7. #4847
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Yes, absolutely, look no further than Flexigroup in Australia... record profit every year, nice dividend to match, yet now trades at a PE of 7.0 and the share price is less than a third it was in 2013... anyway other issues could be at play there. (I am sure there are many other stocks that some people would consider "both irrational and unintelligent" at times... this probably warrants an entire other thread!!)

    Just find it interesting how the market seems to be miss pricing SUM stocks for a pretty long period of time... (assuming Efficient Market Hypothesis is totally irrelevant in SUM or FXL's case of course)

    As for Ryman, the biggest share price fall occurred right before results... and the share price today isn't much different to that on results day (few cents I think)... ie it was already priced in... one might then say, a good guess that they are going to miss something, may just be right.
    Is that not the definition of 'opportunity', in the market? When one has insights that one considers the market has not, ergo intrinsic value is discounted, is fair value, or is over-valued, by the market, the informed and confident can act, by buying, holding or selling shares.

    It is a futile exercise pondering or wondering why the market does what it does, the great amorphous mass of independent opinions swinging a share price. Better is to ignore trying to find reason in the share price and just be informed about the company, the state of the market, develop a strategy, execute the strategy - be it trading or investment, and reap the rewards of getting it right, or the ignominy of getting it wrong.

    jmho. It's been a long time since I was interested in the market's perception of value, except whether it presents opportunity to get in, hold or get out. Since losing that preoccupation with 'why' the market does what it does, investing and trading have become a lot more satisfying and rewarding.

  8. #4848
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Is that not the definition of 'opportunity', in the market? When one has insights that one considers the market has not, ergo intrinsic value is discounted, is fair value, or is over-valued, by the market, the informed and confident can act, by buying, holding or selling shares.

    It is a futile exercise pondering or wondering why the market does what it does, the great amorphous mass of independent opinions swinging a share price. Better is to ignore trying to find reason in the share price and just be informed about the company, the state of the market, develop a strategy, execute the strategy - be it trading or investment, and reap the rewards of getting it right, or the ignominy of getting it wrong.

    jmho. It's been a long time since I was interested in the market's perception of value, except whether it presents opportunity to get in, hold or get out. Since losing that preoccupation with 'why' the market does what it does, investing and trading have become a lot more satisfying and rewarding.
    Completely agree - and I am getting more tempted by SUM everyday (despite the chart looking worse and worse)... just trying to get my head around why a company like SUM has been seeminly undervalued for months... and only getting cheaper... (so far) Sum on here indicated it was a great deal at $5, its now nearly 30 cents lower in a few weeks... maybe in a months time it will be another 30 cents cheaper, maybe not...
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 08-06-2017 at 07:01 PM. Reason: *watching with interest*

  9. #4849
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Completely agree - and I am getting more tempted by SUM everyday (despite the chart looking worse and worse)... just trying to get my head around why a company like SUM has been seeminly undervalued for months... and only getting cheaper... (so far) Sum on here indicated it was a great deal at $5, its now nearly 30 cents lower in a few weeks... maybe in a months time it will be another 30 cents cheaper, maybe not...
    t_J have you considered that SUM maybe is not 'undervalued' at the moment (or at least not by much)

    RYM PE (underlying earnings) period 2002 to 2017 has averaged 20 (trailing basis) ....but if you exclude the stupidity of the PEs like 37 and 29 in 2014 and 2015 it has averaged about 18 ....and currently about 24

    One could therefore say that a 'normal' PE in this sector is about 18 ....maybe add 1 to take account of a low interest rate environment so lets say 19 is todays norm

    Currently SUM is at 17.9 and ARV at 19.5 (trailing underlying earnings)

    So are SUM / ARV 'valued' about right in a 'normal' market (whatever that is) and RYM still has to be rerated down a bit?

    Maybe the market isn't as unintelligent as some amke it out to be


    (But SUM is worth at least $6 but I won't argue with the market - she'll see the light of day soon enough)
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #4850
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Completely agree - and I am getting more tempted by SUM everyday (despite the chart looking worse and worse)... just trying to get my head around why a company like SUM has been seeminly undervalued for months... and only getting cheaper... (so far) Sum on here indicated it was a great deal at $5, its now nearly 30 cents lower in a few weeks... maybe in a months time it will be another 30 cents cheaper, maybe not...
    When the SP has gone beyond reasonable value, either over or under, and one wants to decide where and when to take a position, hold, or exit (partially or wholly), the charts are very helpful. They discount emotion and present facts, albeit historic. Nothing can say precisely what will happen tomorrow.

    1. For those who sit on the sidelines and may want to buy, or want to accumulate, when SUM upticks past typical indicators like the DMA's or trend lines, or other combinations, one can buy the reversal of trend. Not before.

    2. For those who hold, it's way way past wondering. Better to revert to 1. above, or do nothing. Or capitulate for no good reason. Intrinsic value is sound, future value is also sound, and current share price is irrational and irrelevant, except for 1. above.

    3. For those who want to sell strength, revert to 2. It's too late, the damage is done, tomorrow may just be ignominy day if it reverts upwards. Just hold, strength will come again in time.

    So what's the strategy? It depends on ones situation. We all make our own decisions. Use the SP only to inform the strategy, not to define the strategy.

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