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08-07-2017, 10:12 AM
#5231
Believe whatever u want to believe...but the media plays the role here....panic sellers
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11886193
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08-07-2017, 10:48 AM
#5232
Originally Posted by King1212
Lots of emotional tripe in the article, but at least does the author refer towards the end of the article to some facts:
Still the basics of supply and demand suggests there must be a natural floor in this property slump.
Immigration is still at record highs and house building isn't keeping up.
Still not sure why this discussion belongs into the SUM thread, but o.k. - if you are a day trader than yes, this might be relevant for any REIT, not just for SUM.
However - if you are an investor with a multi year horizon (for some of us it is multi decades), than really - who cares about a somewhat emotional article designed to give the Herold some more clicks?
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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08-07-2017, 11:38 AM
#5233
Originally Posted by Beagle
I added a few more this week. In the years to come I know I'll look back and be very glad I did. Ideal retirement stock in more ways than one
I have been considering doing so as well.
Originally Posted by troyvdh;
Just curious...how many of previous posters view this company as an investment....like decades as opposed to a day by day by flick....the word retirement entity may be a clue...here....just saying
I am a long term holder. I have been accumulating my holding over the last few years. My accumulating timing has been hit and miss...
I have visited several villages. Should (in the unlikely situation from today's vantage point) the number of retirement units grow to saturate the market, I feel that the villages are great assets that could be deployed in different target market segments.
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08-07-2017, 11:38 AM
#5234
Hosking was right - media and reality are poles apart
Last edited by winner69; 08-07-2017 at 12:16 PM.
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08-07-2017, 01:40 PM
#5235
I don't think so. Happy to sit and watch this one on W69's fence
Last edited by Joshuatree; 08-07-2017 at 07:29 PM.
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08-07-2017, 05:44 PM
#5236
Originally Posted by Bjauck
I have been considering doing so as well.
I am a long term holder. I have been accumulating my holding over the last few years. My accumulating timing has been hit and miss...
I have visited several villages. Should (in the unlikely situation from today's vantage point) the number of retirement units grow to saturate the market, I feel that the villages are great assets that could be deployed in different target market segments.
Have you seen the new Hobsonville Village ? I had a look through the other day and came away extremely impressed with the staff, quality of the development, the facilities and what an absolutely stunning waterfront location ! Some people would be very surprised to learn that the size of their bigger waterfront single level north facing units are as large as 200 sq meters complete with double garage and expansive north facing deck looking straight onto the water ! Retirement living at its absolute finest ! For a couple of hours there I was wishing I was 70 and could move in already
Last edited by Beagle; 08-07-2017 at 05:46 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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08-07-2017, 06:07 PM
#5237
Originally Posted by Beagle
Have you seen the new Hobsonville Village ? I had a look through the other day and came away extremely impressed with the staff, quality of the development, the facilities and what an absolutely stunning waterfront location ! Some people would be very surprised to learn that the size of their bigger waterfront single level north facing units are as large as 200 sq meters complete with double garage and expansive north facing deck looking straight onto the water ! Retirement living at its absolute finest ! For a couple of hours there I was wishing I was 70 and could move in already
What's the going rate for one of those ? Can just see the Beagle on the deck watching his master coming in on the boat ......
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08-07-2017, 06:14 PM
#5238
I know but that could be considered commercially sensitive information so my lips are sealed, but you are of course free to go along yourself and ask.
I will be looking to get my paws on one of those units in due course.
Last edited by Beagle; 08-07-2017 at 06:17 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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08-07-2017, 06:36 PM
#5239
Member
I see Salt Funds is short retirement villages. From their latest June fact sheet:
The Fund remains slightly net short the retirement village sector but did cover its mid-sized Summerset short near its lows as share prices fell sharply during the month as the long-awaited housing slowdown began to be priced in. We now have a large long in Metlifecare, a large short in Ryman, a tiny short in Arvida and a modest short in Summerset which we put back on after it bounced on a (last??) earnings upgrade late in the month.
We have waxed lyrical (or cacophonous) on many occasions about how retirement village investors are facing potentially significant balance sheet risk when housing and thence retirement unit sales slow. While we model each name out fully, we think very simply about
relative positioning in the sector. Who would want to own a property developer after the market has peaked? Who would pay multiples of a developer’s NTA for developments not just on the land that they currently own but on future land purchases that are merely a glint in their eye? That is the situation with Ryman and Summerset. Our issue is not their management capability but their balance sheets and valuation now that the housing market has turned.
Conversely, Metlifecare is at a 10-15% discount to NTA, with this being largely locked in and it will be progressively realised as current occupants gradually pass away. Moreover, their balance sheet is far less geared, making them less vulnerable in the event that the current stagnation in house prices and sharp contraction in house sales morphs into something nastier.
https://static1.squarespace.com/stat...+June+2017.pdf
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08-07-2017, 06:48 PM
#5240
Originally Posted by Thor
Not surprised, as to me it feels like some parties have been putting some serious short positions on going off the tone of some of the comments on here which very much reminds me of the tone on the AIR thread when it was rumored some parties had short positions of them at under $2, (extensive numbers of negative comments which basically almost completely dried up when the AIR SP started going up again). How's that working for SALT though ? Fund return for the six months ended 30 June 2017 2.6% whereas by comparison the NZX 50 is up 10.6% or if one reads the 2017 stocktastic competition they see any number of hounds doing better than the benchmark NZX50 index without using shorts. That said if it was easy to offset my long position in SUM on a forward PE of 14 with a short position on RYM on a 21 PE and eliminate sector risk I'd bark up that tree keenly ! No justification whatsoever based on their respective growth rates for RYM to be trading at that sort of premium even given their longstanding track record, reputation and all.
I think there's a warning here for retail investors. Just like some people ramp shares, (and hey, I'm guilty as charged sometimes), some others down-ramp aggressively based on their own vested interest too. Best advice I ever got from an old retiring accountant early in my career, "Love many, Trust few and always paddle your own canoe !"
Last edited by Beagle; 08-07-2017 at 06:54 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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