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  1. #5341
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raz View Post
    We didn't really suffer with GFC 1 and I would not discount GFC 2 and we will not miss out next time me suspects!
    With respect mate I think the investors who lost a whopping six billion dollars in finance companies in N.Z. would be highly likely to beg to differ !
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #5342
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    If I remember correctly, (forgive me its been nearly a decade) RYM got down to an underlying PE of 12 in the midst of the greatest financial crisis the world has seen since the great depression of 1929-1935 and most interestingly continued to post increased underlying earnings through the GFC. SUM is currently at 14 with no real evidence of a GFC MK2 ! Risks more than fully priced in ?

    Winner, Anne Urlwin and James Ogden pretty conservative eh...should be loading up on shares not bonds at the current price !
    Got down to 13.

    Before the exubernce of the last few years RYM average PE uo to 2013 was only 17 odd -that's interesting eh
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #5343
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    With respect mate I think the investors who lost a whopping six billion dollars in finance companies in N.Z. would be highly likely to beg to differ !
    Ok, i stand corrected, more in empathy to those I know who lost in that sector here, still it was mild here in relative terms to overseas where many businesses lost 40-60% turnover over night...and the suicides that followed.

  4. #5344
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Put up a chart winner, what regression channel are you on about? Why do you think it's going to the top?
    You seemed a bit grumpy the other night baa_baa but I'll forgive you. I mentioned this SUM channel it a few weeks ago and couts just wanted an update

    Only done the maths and haven't bothered do a chart yet. It's -

    [
    • Just a linear regression based on weekly closes from Nov 2011 (just after floating) to current date to give a line of best fit.
    • All prices in this time period have been contained within 0.7 STDEV
    • As at this week the regression has a price of 519 (mid point of the channel)
    • If I drew a lower channel line this week it would be at 442 / the upper channel line would be at 597
    • The SUM share price has been trending UP over this tie frame at 24% pa


    You might say that a STDEV of 0.7 is quite high (77 cents) but with prices trending up at 24% pa I think it's quite reasonable - after all all prices have been contained within the channel

    I didn't say it's going to the top - but based on the past it possibly could ... and could go down to the bottom .....or as you will appreciate the trend could break down completely and the share price could go anywhere.

    But at te moment heading to the regression line - that's good eh

    All inspired by your friend Mr Raff
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #5345
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Got down to 13.

    Before the exubernce of the last few years RYM average PE uo to 2013 was only 17 odd -that's interesting eh
    In normal circumstances I'm happy to pay a Ben Graham no growth PE of 8.5 + 1g (don't like his 2g). If we assume the long term forecast growth rate going forward remains at 15% then a PE of 23.5 seems fair and reasonable so RYM about fair value at present. These are not normal circumstances however and when you can buy a proven growth stock deeply discounted in the same sector with a vastly better growth rate why pay a fair price elsewhere...
    Mr market just beginning to realise a forward PE of 14 for SUM was too cheap. Our mate Coutts will be happy with his truck and also trailer full already
    SALT must be copping a real beating on their short position in SUM and large short position in RYM !
    Last edited by Beagle; 17-07-2017 at 02:16 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #5346
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    Looks like picked the bottom, 30 cent buffer on last transaction already...

  7. #5347
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Looks like we returned today to the "good" side of the MA200 ... full steam ahead!
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  8. #5348
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    Yup, over the past few days I've been thinking that sum is probably at the bottom. I suspect it'll go up within a year. I'm picking in 12 months time we'll see up to $5.5
    I was 4c from the bottom. I love easy to spot ones 😝

  9. #5349
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    I was 4c from the bottom. I love easy to spot ones 😝
    I would of topped up but I went all in at $5 so nice to see it's almost back there again, it was weighing down my portfolio for a little while. Luckily THL smashing it kept me happy while waiting for this to bounce

  10. #5350
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Good to see you guys all happy and excited again and recovering from that period when you were down in the dumps

    Heading to 520 .....550 .....
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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