SUM - Summerset Group

[iceman]

Only 3.9c dividend so not responsible for today's fall

[Beagle]

Salt Funds management or whatever they're called like to short them, probably the villains.

[Hoop]

SUM technically broke down this morning..This is a serious breakdown as it is another confirmation that SUM could be a Bear...Some cyclic reversals from Bull to Bear can be hard to pick when the proceedings use slow creep tactics...This is the second failed rally since the September 2016 top and each time the rally has been a lower high..A bit of encouragement (or an event to muddy the TA water) is the recent higher low which helped to form a Symmetrical Triangle (ST)..How the price navagates the ST will provide the answer to the question of whether SUM is experiencing an extended time in Bull Market correction mode or whether it is the continuing suspected bear cycle..
Another bit of encouraging news is the MA200 is below the price and the price is currently resting on the short term up trend line...

The DMI indicator and the moving averages don't seem to work very well..This suggests the SUM market players are not dominated by the medium/short term investors.

Its usual to buy near support which is now but caution is needed this time just in case its a bear..maybe a wait and see attitude is a prudent course of action...Note: SUM has been a poor performer for a year now (-12%)

Attachment 9110

[BlackPeter]

SUM technically broke down this morning..This is a serious breakdown as it is another confirmation that SUM could be a Bear...Some cyclic reversals from Bull to Bear can be hard to pick when the proceedings use slow creep tactics...This is the second failed rally since the September 2016 top and each time the rally has been a lower high..A bit of encouragement (or an event to muddy the TA water) is the recent higher low which helped to form a Symmetrical Triangle (ST)..How the price navagates the ST will provide the answer to the question of whether SUM is experiencing an extended time in Bull Market correction mode or whether it is the continuing suspected bear cycle..
Another bit of encouraging news is the MA200 is below the price and the price is currently resting on the short term up trend line...

The DMI indicator and the moving averages don't seem to work very well..This suggests the SUM market players are not dominated by the medium/short term investors.

Its usual to buy near support which is now but caution is needed this time just in case its a bear..maybe a wait and see attitude is a prudent course of action...Note: SUM has been a poor performer for a year now (-12%)

Attachment 9110

that's interesting .... I guess it depends very much on which time window you look at.

Short term I only see an uptrend and a stock close to pass the Golden Cross:

Attachment 9115

Long term I only see an uptrend and a stock close to pass the Golden Cross:

Attachment 9117

But yes, you are right - if it drops below the MA200 (btw a nice bounce today), than people need to make up with themselves whether they want to hold based on fundamentals.

SUM had in recent years several dips below the MA200 - and yes, there was good money to make for selling and buying well timed, but as well money to lose for getting out and missing the entry. So far it looks like a reasonable buy and hold stock to me.

[Snow Leopard]

SUM technically broke down this morning..This is a serious breakdown...

If you were using a log price chart for this I would take it seriously and lie down with a paper bag over my head.

But you aren't.
So I won't.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

that's interesting .... I guess it depends very much on which time window you look at.

Short term I only see an uptrend and a stock close to pass the Golden Cross:,,,,,,,,,,,,

A longer term chart I produced above has shown two recently failed rallys each being a lower high..the latest failed high has confirmed a price primary down trend...the jury is still out on whether this is a year long bull market correction or something more sinister and smells like a bear...Sometimes it pays to see the bigger picture and be aware, which then enables you to be investor cautious about the naure of the shorter term uptrend (secondary)...

I disagree with your longer term bottom chart, I revisited my charts after seeing your bottom long term chart..I looked at both my linear and log charts..both charts show definite primary up trend breaks... the log scale chart showing the primary up trend from just after listing (5 years ago) ended in June this year.. On the linear chart an assumed (adjusted)** 3 year old primary trend line ended 2 weeks earlier in May 2017....

**On linear charts some trendlines are curved therefore adjusted

You often see some charting with a narrow view and the creator of these charts have some sort of agenda... I call them a "politicans chart" ..A bit like a close up photo of a beautiful mansion ..widen the view and "shock/horror the panarama backdrop is the grottiest street in the town.

SUM suffered a 6 month teddybear (cute and cuddly) cycle (~25% drop) back in 2015 and it took from January 2014 to July 2015 for shareholder to regain that capital lost in that 6 month very small bear dip....so history has it that SUM is not immune to bears during equity market good times..so tread softly...

[Snow Leopard]

...You often see some charting with a narrow view and the creator of these charts have some sort of agenda... I call them a "politicans chart" ....

Almost every chart is a "politicians chart". Any chart that shows more than raw data or as accompanying commentary is biased.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[moka]

OCA and ARV up this morning, but SUM down back below $5?
What's going on?

Milford blog posted 22/08/17
https://milfordasset.com/can-summers...operty-market/


Can Summerset defy the residential property market?

Summerset could continue to report impressive underlying earnings growth and expand aggressively for several years to come due to its embedded value. However, in the long term, the residential property market will heavily influence the performance of the company. How investors reflect this through the company’s share price will be interesting to observe.

[percy]

Well that was all a lot of noise about nothing.!

[Hoop]

If you were using a log price chart for this I would take it seriously and lie down with a paper bag over my head.

But you aren't.
So I won't.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Almost every chart is a "politicians chart". Any chart that shows more than raw data or as accompanying commentary is biased.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Specially made for the log paranoid cat with a paper bag over his head...I hope you appeciate my time and effort I put into this, my feline friend.. (40 minutes to produce and post).

The first chart is a log/linear overlay of my previously posted chart...As you see Shorter time periods (1 year) and small price range the overall difference between linear and log is minimal...so no bias from me..
Second chart is a long term chart (start Nov 2011) with large price range..This type of chart should always be in log scale as it shows perspective of price growth as a %.

I added nothing so no bias (ooops I couldn't help myself there is a primary trend line added).

The drawn in trendline is the qualify my statement.

......I disagree with your longer term bottom chart, I revisited my charts after seeing your bottom long term chart..I looked at both my linear and log charts..both charts show definite primary up trend breaks... the log scale chart showing the primary up trend from just after listing (5 years ago) ended in June this year.. On the linear chart an assumed (adjusted)** 3 year old primary trend line ended 2 weeks earlier in May 2017....

And for those people who are FA orientated and believe "Mr Market is underperforming" They too should look at the wider view to incorporate all the picture not just focus on part of it...eg earnings growth..Mr Market is concerned by "something" within all the retirement industry sector...It's hard to figure what it is, so it's prudent to play detective and do your own homework..maybe (maybe not) it's all to do with investor sentiment and their bullish attitude being dampened when swaping their focus from growth to risk and how wel these big 4 companies could cope with unforeseen change or a perceived falling off of the property market/economy..To test my assumption I did a risk check and I was in disbelief I must have got this wrong, or my interpretation of the result is not correct or does not apply. Can the FA experts check the results by doing their own Altman Z-score calculation for SUM RYM MET OCA and explain. Thanks.

sum overlay.jpg sum 31.jpg