SUM - Summerset Group

[RupertBear]

The Call of the Beagle and Other Musical Sounds

My apologies, they do bark and howl - sometimes so much so that it is deafening and one can no longer think clearly[/QUOTE]

Personally I quite enjoy the sound of a Beagle sharing his thoughts

[Baa_Baa]

The breakdown of the 200dma, backtest fail and continued down in the SP doesn't inspire confidence. A year of sideways gyrations, it's not surprising the nerves get a bit frayed. Sentiment is everything, in the market, not here.

[percy]

The Call of the Beagle and Other Musical Sounds

My apologies, they do bark and howl - sometimes so much so that it is deafening and one can no longer think clearly

Personally I quite enjoy the sound of a Beagle sharing his thoughts [/QUOTE]

Luckily it falls on deaf ears with me.!!!.................lol.

[Beagle]

As we all know mate, SUM people like to put others down and use their old posts against them, I guess it makes them feel important and a cut above the rest of us.

Like water off a ducks (dog's) back mate https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdcCjpI4tS8
Thankfully SUM times as this makes my ears hurt its better to wear a protective weatherproof coat (AKA the ignore button) then as Percy suggests I too am deaf.
Anyway back to the company for goodness sake. Underlying profit forecast of $75 - $80m is still forecast, I reckon $85m which gives 38cps. At $4.80 the company is on a current year PE of just 12.6 and the year is nearly over so that will be a trailing PE soon !
Julian will see us right, Underlying profit of ~ $100m in FY18 I reckon.

[trader_jackson]

As we all know mate, SUM people like to put others down and use their old posts against them, I guess it makes them feel important and a cut above the rest of us.

Accountability is what is important to me, it is nothing personal - as I am sure I have said before for example, if you say something one week, you (or other posters) shouldn't get all up and arms about it the next when things maybe didn't go as planned.

I would also like to think the very securities we are commenting on (and their management) are accountable to what they say - such as the 450 target (reiterated relatively recently).

On the other hand, coming out and making blatant personal attacks and demanding apologies (for throwing one's exact words back at them lol) certainly does not help anybody on the forum. I would have thought

Anyhow onward and upward towards the Santa clause rally!

Disclosure: I do actually enjoy many of Beagle's posts

[JeremyALD]

I see no reason why they won't achieve 450 units this year. If they didn't i would be very surprised. They said in their Q3 update they were on track and they said it without any ifs or buts. You have a very good idea 3 months out when projects are completing and they have not said anything otherwise so I think they'll get there. I've actually heard houses are starting to be finished a bit more on schedule at the moment due to the slow down in house sales.

[Beagle]

I see no reason why they won't achieve 450 units this year. If they didn't i would be very surprised. They said in their Q3 update they were on track and they said it without any ifs or buts. You have a very good idea 3 months out when projects are completing and they have not said anything otherwise so I think they'll get there. I've actually heard houses are starting to be finished a bit more on schedule at the moment due to the slow down in house sales.

Thinking about it overnight I couldn't agree more. SUM has an excellent track record ever since they listed six years ago of always slightly exceeding build guidance and as you say as recently as last month Julian Cook confirmed they are on track to meet this year's guidance. Their reputation speaks for itself.
On another subject I see house prices according to REINZ are ostensibly flat in Auckland for the year to October and up 3.9% on average across the rest of the country. This exceeds the assumptions I have in my forecast model which was for 0% gain in Auckland and just 3.0% nationally. Development margin at 28% at the half year substantially exceeded my model of 22% average for the year. I am modelling $85m underlying profit for the year. Resales of units were slightly under my model for Q3 but were in line with my model for the first half. On balance I am more than happy with my forecast going forward. Disc: Holding a good sized position.

[bull....]

technicals look a worry , looks like it wants to test the 4.65 - 70 area?

[winner69]

technicals look a worry , looks like it wants to test the 4.65 - 70 area?

Long term channel wise 460 odd would be a disaster .....5 year uptrend over

Maybe the summary baa_baa suggested as to what’s going on in the market on the OCA thread is spot on

[peat]

yes they do bull....
trendlines mostly depict a break
Attachment 9270

S/R exists around your stated area. except I would stretch it a bit wider say down to 4.50. its a bit fuzzy

while the shape over the last year looks precarious with that wonky W and two 78% retracements it could also be seen as a pennant bull flag, a period of consolidation before the next run.