Finally...its been a tough year to be a holder but I am expecting a MUCH better year in 2018.
COULDN'T RESIST THIS
SUM has a good day but still only remains fairly priced ...maybe a tad 'underriced' as just below the 50% of RYM sharerice mark
The market thinks SUM is only half as good as RYM. Whatever the reason the market obviously thinks it is a good one and won't be wavered from thinking so. The relationship is so entrenched one would have to think, just maybe, its a permanent relationship
thanks to couts for having this hypothesis ...which sort of has been proved
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
SUM has a good day but still only remains fairly priced ...maybe a tad 'underriced' as just below the 50% of RYM sharerice mark
The market thinks SUM is only half as good as RYM. Whatever the reason the market obviously thinks it is a good one and won't be wavered from thinking so. The relationship is so entrenched one would have to think, just maybe, its a permanent relationship
thanks to couts for having this hypothesis ...which sort of has been proved
It is a fascinating hypothesis that has become more and more irrational over time as SUM have grown underlying earnings at a compound average rate of 48% and RYM at about 15% over the last five years. As you have acknowledged in a previous post SUM have traded at an average PE of about 27 since listing and are presently trading at just on half that level.
On the other hand we have RYM trading on an underlying PE of 25.5 based on the mid point of their 2018 forecast at yesterday's closing price which is about their average over the last five years.
Both companies face ostensibly similar market dynamics and it should be noted there are serious concerns about house prices across the Tasman too.
Looking forward logic suggests there are two compelling forces that should work to uncouple this 50% pricing relativity. SUM have much faster earnings growth and are coming off a much lower underlying PE.
Just because a pricing relationship has worked in the past is not nearly enough reason for a value investor (of which I am one) to follow this blindly going forward.
I for one will always follow earnings growth and value ahead of some arbitrary theory on pricing relativity regardless of how long or how illogical that pattern has existed for. The increasing absurdity of this relationship only adds to my resolve to increase my portfolio allocation to SUM. There you go mate, the fishing was good today, you got your bite
Disc: Added more SUM yesterday.
Last edited by Beagle; 28-11-2017 at 09:14 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I'd be inclined to ignore these shareprice fluctuations, Beagle. We know that SUM is a longterm play and in the short term the shareprice can do what shareprices do.
Disc: holding.
And that sage advice took under TWO weeks to be proved correct.
And that sage advice took under TWO weeks to be proved correct.
Yes good advice but I was just venting a little frustration. Although technical's had been broken it was never an option for me selling at around $4.60-$4.70. Very deep value at that price. Should have topped up some more down there but pleased I got a few more at about $5 the other day after the 100 day MA had been broken through to the upside.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Yes good advice but I was just venting a little frustration. Although technical's had been broken it was never an option for me selling at around $4.60-$4.70. Very deep value at that price. Should have topped up some more down there but pleased I got a few more at about $5 the other day after the 100 day MA had been broken through to the upside.
Hi Team
SUMmers here! Time to crack out SUM flip flops, slap on SUM Sumscreen (It's getting hot in here), chuck on the SUM hat and wrap on SUM shades... Life's pretty cool right now.
SUMone has to get excited about this bounce and the tide is bringing in SUM other boats too.
SUMmers here! Time to crack out SUM flip flops, slap on SUM Sumscreen (It's getting hot in here), chuck on the SUM hat and wrap on SUM shades... Life's pretty cool right now.
SUMone has to get excited about this bounce and the tide is bringing in SUM other boats too.
Shall get really excited if & when the SP breaks out of its wedge ... (above 5.30) - let's see & wait whether we are in for another cycle or whether this is the time ...
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Just let compound earnings growth grow your investment over time.
All that's required is a sleepy approach and the occasional tail wag https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtBEmtj4FaM
Yes I am content but it hasn't done much overall this year so just holding and trying to exercise heaps of patience over the years ahead with this one.
Last edited by Beagle; 01-12-2017 at 03:06 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Just let compound earnings growth grow your investment over time.
All that's required is a sleepy approach and the occasional tail wag https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtBEmtj4FaM
Yes I am content but it hasn't done much overall this year so just holding and trying to exercise heaps of patience over the years ahead with this one.
Meanwhile Ryman hits $10.63 and is up 16% since a fortnight ago, that's very impressive for a boring, big cap, blue chip stock. PS-My ratio remains intact Mr Beagle.
Originally Posted by Beagle
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