SUM - Summerset Group

**BlackPeter** · 15-12-2017, 05:14 PM

Originally Posted by Food4Thought

The December Effect. Summerset, (and probably across the board of the majority of stock prices) has that familiar December down trend. is it because people people have to pay for their festive season and cash in some stocks? Is there a technical term for it? Seasonality? XMas splurge funds? Increased uncertainty that the investment firms won't come back in January? Risk minimisation? Clear on the long term graphs and easy to identify.

Come on 2018, you are just around the corner.

All get's a bit wild at this time of year with those frantic festive season organisers

Happy Friday Everyone. Stay safe on the roads

Hmm - if there is such a thing as a December downtrend, then my portfolio is certainly behaving quite adversary

and I like it!

However - never heard of such a thing - quite the contrary, most people talk about a XMas rally. But sure - not all stocks go upwards all the time, but if retirement stocks are currently a bit sagging: blame the new government and not Santa Claus! They deserve it - nothing wrong with December.

**Food4Thought** · 15-12-2017, 05:49 PM

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

Hmm - if there is such a thing as a December downtrend, then my portfolio is certainly behaving quite adversary

and I like it!

However - never heard of such a thing - quite the contrary, most people talk about a XMas rally. But sure - not all stocks go upwards all the time, but if retirement stocks are currently a bit sagging: blame the new government and not Santa Claus! They deserve it - nothing wrong with December.

Happy to be wrong. Didn't expect to go above $5.20 today. SUM vs RYM half price boundary.... is that now broken? Are people exiting RYM and coming onto in for SUM gains.

**Beagle** · 15-12-2017, 06:14 PM

Originally Posted by Food4Thought

Happy to be wrong. Didn't expect to go above $5.20 today. SUM vs RYM half price boundary.... is that now broken? Are people exiting RYM and coming onto in for SUM gains.

Yes I feel a disturbance in the force lol. Couta1's mean reversion theory has been slightly breeched. Surely a temporary thing and the truly compelling logic of RYM being exactly twice the price of SUM will resume next week

**couta1** · 15-12-2017, 10:47 PM

Originally Posted by Beagle

Yes I feel a disturbance in the force lol. Couta1's mean reversion theory has been slightly breeched. Surely a temporary thing and the truly compelling logic of RYM being exactly twice the price of SUM will resume next week

Dead right Beagle, the Couta Theorum has stood and passed the test of time.

**Ggcc** · 19-12-2017, 12:40 PM

Earnings upgrade. Beagle you were spot on!!

**LAC** · 19-12-2017, 01:10 PM

Originally Posted by Ggcc

Earnings upgrade. Beagle you were spot on!!

Great news

**Beagle** · 19-12-2017, 01:15 PM

Happy with that. I had been hearing rumors they might struggle to get to their 450 sales this year but the tight range of this updated forecast significantly de-risks the stock in what has been a flattish year for real estate. I had been hoping for a bit more... $80-85m but I think in the circumstances seeing as for various reasons they got a bit late with their 3rd quarter settlements this is a good solid update and underscores the resilience of their business model. Even if they don't make their 450 sales now the underlying profit growth rate of 35-40% is still a highly credible result. I have them as one of my five picks in the share competition for 2018 and they are one of my biggest holdings on the NZX. $78m (midpoint of forecast) on 224m shares gives 34.8 cps. At the time of posting this at $5.33 means they are currently trading on a 2017 PE of 15.3. I think that's pretty cheap considering their 6 year track record of very strong growth and proof of very strong profit growth this year in a more subdued real estate environment.