CUE-> Pantheon of small oil stocks

[STRAT]

Am also just a little concerned. . .

So yeah, a close below 0.25 and I reckon I might sell a chunk.

However, I'm still optimistic that it will be onwards and upwards from here. It just doesn't make much sense for the share price to stay so weak even as the good news rolls in - though that rights issue didn't help things I guess.

Hi Seaosh.
One thing Ive learned over the years is not to try and make sense of it. There is always so much we will never see and never know but I assume there will always be people who do know so I try and see them in action through charting. Im still working on that
Best not to fight it, just react to it in a timely fashon I reckon. Im still working on that too

[colinm_au]

Successful investing takes patience ... Sit back and relax - CUE's soon to be stellar financial performance with Maari and Oyong Phase2 startup will eventually start to drive the SP !

[Phaedrus]

Sitting on the fence can cause a lot of worry (not to mention pain!) Sort yourselves out. Whad-are-ya-eh? Are you a serious, patient, sensible investor, or are you one of those ghastly, loathsome, lazy, frivolous trader scum? Either way, the situation is quite clear. The fly-by-night rabble will already be out of CUE. The chart shows 3 good reasons :-
(1) Trendline break.
(2) Bearish divergence from RSI. (14) (not shown - no room)
(3) OBV Trendline break.

Sensible, patient investors, upright citizens all, will still be holding. The chart shows 3 good reasons :-
(1) RSI (80) is still a Hold.
(2) RMI (60,6) is still a Hold.
(3) Slow Stochastic Oscillator (130) is still a Hold.
For what it's worth, the Trailing Stop has not been hit yet.

Self knowledge, see. Know who you are and many of life's dilemmas disappear.

[STRAT]

Sort yourselves out. Whad-are-ya-eh?

I bit of both I am I think

Classic

[seaosh]

Thanks for the charts. . .

Think I am also a bit of both. I bought most of my CUE as a long-term investment, but recently I think I'm becoming more of a short-term kind of a guy.

[bermuda]

Sharetrader is indebted to Phaedrus for his ultimate TA knowledge and his ability to explain it. He runs rings around the guys on CNBC.

It would be an ignorant Broker who ddin't tune in to Sharetrader each day and check Phaedrus's posts.

Invaluable. Thanks Phaedrus.

[geezy]

Sharetrader is indebted to Phaedrus for his ultimate TA knowledge and his ability to explain it. He runs rings around the guys on CNBC.

It would be an ignorant Broker who ddin't tune in to Sharetrader each day and check Phaedrus's posts.

Invaluable. Thanks Phaedrus.

yes indeed, where can i learn this kinda stuff?do i have to go for a course or can i read it up somewhere?

thanks in advance!

ps: hold CUE

[Crypto Crude]

Shrewd Crude Report

Hey phaedrus...
that was a passionate post from you...
no fly by nighters heres mate...
as always, waiting on realisation of forseen value......
might take a few years... theres nothing like this sort of portfolio of projects at different stages anywhere in the ASX junior oil market, like this that ive seen before... this might explain why CUE is up 150% this year...
it hasnt run anywhere near to where it should...
There is big returns to be made by investing now, even after such a run of sp... why?

a whole lot of derisking of production stage activities...
...a whole lot of new market info for example making our PNG assets viable... and derisking company specific projects as they mature into more likely development stage projects as time passes...

...
..
.
read this post when you have 10 mins....
CUEs bulk activities have now come through...
Manaia, M2A, Maari full production, Drilling of Spikey, and now Oyong Gas full production... these were the activities that were all coming through that providing a nice info stream to support a higher market price... where to from here now that there are no set announcements to wait for?
well, I said wait two months once all these activities had been completed
for the market to start to realise them, and begin to rate them into the sp...I said this because the market is always slow on pick up...

well, its pretty much the grind of very strong fundamentals, and our tree which has offshooting branches where announcements could come any time, and from any direction... but nothing set in stone...

But, while I continue to wait on these strong fundamentals (mainly cashflow fundamentals)...3500 BOE/PD....
and other fundamentals eg PNG, and WA...
and large inground proven assets of around 300 BCF...
id like to now spend some time going over Matariki and permit PEP-38494..... This permit lies south, and connects to the boundary of PMP 38160 where Maari is situation...
This permit 38494 (Matariki), really holds the key to 2010 in CUE,
amongst other longer term activities that ive gone over before

In the last HZN announcement they made reference to this permit, and said they will "make an announcement concerning this acerage in the near future".. this is due to the fact that Permit PEP 38494 lapsed August 26th
after HZN/CUE pulled away from the commitment of drilling Matariki due to a number of reasons...

1) lower drilling costs in the future, option to delay... which has come about because of the World Drop in demand for oil services/rigs due to crashing oil prices...
2)delay of Maari, as cashflows needed to fund Matariki which
set these juniors back, and unable to fund Matariki...
3)market conditions... industry conditions...

What I saw in Maari, and in Manaia showed very good promise...
this is the basis of me holding through the market crash...
The fact that Oil is now almost certain to have Migrated South through
the Tasman Ridge Millions of years ago (as I have previously talked about)...
that Manaia was always going to be underfilled (25m recoverable) because the field is west of the natural migration pathway only filling some of the structure...
Oil charged fairway from East Maui Sub Basin is the future focus for the Maari partners... and we are right there mate...

Just like Maari, Matariki lies right on top of this migration pathway... great...
...
Looking for further oil discoveries ontrend is the best form of oil exploration investment... Historically explorers in NZ have not followed this common sense rationale...(well, not until recently)...
We can see this evident through drilling North and South of the Great
Maui (NZs biggest gas field ever)...
Theres something more connected through this region, but for now its
unclear in my mind...For us its all about tapping into oil that flowed south through the Tasman Ridge...
and finding suitable targets that have potential traps...
Matariki is the lead candidate...

Matariki structure is generally similar to same shallow structures as Maari, and same reservior targets (moki sands)...

ok... in 2006 The Todds made an acquisition of seismic data, with processing of other data to create digital seismic database resulting in identification of the Tasman Ridge as the regions greatest prospectivity...

On the Matariki seismics we can see areas of distruption caused by gas Chimneys... choo choo...

Can you see the Hazy gas in both Seismic shoots?

The first attachment is the Moki-1 well seismic overview...(maari)






In the Second Attachment you can see the hazy gas which represents hydrocarbon charge of Matariki
This increases our chance of success of discovery...




In the last attachment I have put a red dot where the proposed Matariki well will lie, and the purple shaded outline represents seismic distruptions caused by gas chimneys which can be seen on the 2nd attachment...

There is a strong oil trend play present here...

With Todds holding a substantial stake in CUE,
Richard Tweedie a non exec director, and Mangaging Director of Todd Energy, I think theres no doubt that we will get this well back on track as we hope to drill this very exciting exploration target next year...
I rarely research exploration licences and give recommendations based on that... as I said, exploration is exploration.... But not this sort of exploration... This has been a very successful find, and made even better by being able to invest in the New Zealand oil and gas industry...
NZO was never my sort of stock, because by the time I found shares, NZO was too large for me to create the sort of leveraged returns I wanted to make...

with the present synergies with Maari production, and The Tweedie factor
I dont think there is any concern of us not getting this well back on track for next year... our connections to big oil, and Maari as the backbone, along with this and that... blah blah blah all through South East Asia, makes this an absolute sitter for big growth...blah blah blah...
As we are growing financially, we can start to take on bigger positions, as Matariki would be 20% stake, for 20 million recoverable (for us)
from Matariki moki upper and lower sands, would see us at $1...
The Maari facilities (around 20-30 KMs north), makes this potential tie in more exciting (in my eyes, than Zeus)...
Matariki is even more exciting, but is supprisingly not an astounishing high risk well, such as other exploration wells...

So, now you can see why I held on through the market crash....
Matariki is more exciting than any Tui exploration well... the target is giant, up to 100 million barrels recoverable based on the same intrepreted
anticline structure as Moki sands in the Maari oil field... hydrocarbon charge, and on migration fairway...
Intrepretation shows Moki sands in Matariki to be double stacks (hence roughly twice the recoverable oil than from the moki Maari sands)...
Double Maari... humm.......
and a secondary target of Kaimiro Strat Trap of a further 116 million
barrels recoverable.. This is very risky secondary target...

The risks of upper moki sands are around 40%, with the lower sands being slightly less... and the Kaimiro target very high risk...

This is a 100 Million barrel target, while looking at Kaimiro as a bonus...

GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF NEW ZEALAND rate Matariki as a high chance of success... So do I....

so in summary.....

Matariki is an exciting exporation well because

1) The structure lies on the Oil Migration Fairway
2) seismics show hydrocarbon charge similar to Maari, hazy gas
3) prospective region
4) synergies with Maari
5)favourable country to invest...

.^sc

[evilroyrule]

THANKS SC, good reading. appreciate the time you put in!

[Corporate]

SC - as always great post. Well researched and well explained.

Could you go further into how Mataraki could be tied into the Maari facilities? Wouldn't it be to far away and also OMV are the major owners of Maari.