CUE-> Pantheon of small oil stocks

[Corporate]

Great report here

http://online.octaphillip.com/pdf/CUE_120723.pdf

[macduffy]

Great report here

http://online.octaphillip.com/pdf/CUE_120723.pdf

Yes, good positive report.

Note the caveat on the recommendation, though:

"We rate Cue Energy Resources as BUY with a price target of $0.38, equivalent to our risked
valuation of the Company. The investment, however, comes with a high risk as the upside
value of the Company is dependent on drilling success and the price of oil remaining at our
forecast levels "

[Corporate]

Yes, good positive report.

Note the caveat on the recommendation, though:

"We rate Cue Energy Resources as BUY with a price target of $0.38, equivalent to our risked
valuation of the Company. The investment, however, comes with a high risk as the upside
value of the Company is dependent on drilling success and the price of oil remaining at our
forecast levels "

Yes but to be fair, that is not different to any other oiler!

[bung5]

Back in CUE today is just too good to pass up on their producing assets. P/E ratio of 4.83. P/E on enterprise value around 2.5??

[Waiuta]

I'm diasappointed in CUE's performance and can't help thinking there were plenty who new of the 70% profit drop beore the results were announced.
How else can you explain the SP drop?

Still hold and hope

[ELYOB]

Trouble with some analysts and posters is they are looking in the rear view mirror and making comment.

My assessment is my own , dont need others to work it out .

ASX is tough along with world markets till we get the USA elections away and Obama is kicked out! Stocks are going to get squeezed till then . Lots more to come ! The big money is in USA offshore accounts and they are not going to do anything till they see the rear end of Obama. Obama is lame , and the python is squeezing .....

CUE , what about it! CUE is playing it well and not wasting itself . Obviously they watch what is going on in markets . By Feb 13 , they will have 50m dollars in bank and ready with plays , when I expect markets to be in recovery mode . There are plenty of deals out there to be made if one is serious .....

[bung5]

Cue is great stock for long term trading ( short term investing?) Right now is the perfect time for this.

@15c there is low downside with cash in the bank and production income. Not much drilling this quarter but once the drill rigs start again IMO will start tracking back up as the traders get back in.

[colinm_au]

Has anyone noticed the lack of actual production data (not sales) reported by CUE ???

Why was the huge increase in Reserves at Maari reported by HZN not reported by CUE ???

Sales figures reported seem very understated when compared to JV partners results ...

The previous quarter results were poor because they included NO sales from Oyong and underlifting at Maari, yet these values should have shown up in this quarter ...

The Buyers keep getting hammered by a large seller and the SP is suffering ... Surely HZN's announcement of a 60% increase in reserves at Maari, CUE's main asset would have resulted in a SP increase ...


What is going on ?

[Corporate]

Hi Colinm

CUE does provide the average production for the period and the amount of hydrocarbon sales.

The different in Maari sales across CUE and HZN for the 30 September quarter was 92k compared to 37k. This is mainly due to Horizon having a 10% interest compared to CUE's 5% interest. The rest is likely to be attributable to the timing of liftings. Each party is usually responsible for its own crude marketing and sales.

This can be seen when you look at the two quarterly results for the three months ended 30 June. Horizon had Maari sales of 73k barrels and CUE had Maari sales of 41.7k barrels.

It all washes out in the end.

I think HZN's share price was pushing ahead on the recent results from PNG and China rather than the reserver revision for Maari. The reserves don't mean much if they can't get the oil out of the ground.

CUE will need to do its own assessment of Maari reserves rather than rely on Horizon and its advisors.

Cheers,
C

[colinm_au]

Hi Corporate !

Given the company is able to provide the exact quantum of sales, I don't understand why they cannot also provide the actual production figures ...

As someone that takes a keen interest in this company, I like to be able to assess the performance of wells accurately. Providing a ballpark figure (eg. Maari 545 BOPD) makes it impossible to determine production over/underlift .. an underlift of 20,000 BBL @ $100 = M$2 ... Not an inconsiderable amount for a company with Mcap M$93 currently.

Whilst it may 'all wash out' in the end ... Transparency is important if only to ensure that human error in reporting figures can be determined ...

My understanding is that the reserves figures were determined by the operator OMV and not HZN ...

Whilst you may feel that reserves don't mean much 'if they can't get the oil out of the ground' ... Some investors do value companies on actual reserves ... Not all of us are just 'Mug Punters' !

The recent results for HZN in China have not been quantified have they ... So the market has very little idea of the significance of the latest drilling results.
I doubt if the market is revaluing HZN based on PNG drilling success 6 months ago !

Recent reporting by CUE including the recent analyst report commissioned by the board do little to promote the company's prospects ...
Especially given the substantive errors it contains ! An example of this is listing CUE's interest in Maari as 3% which is incorrect ... it is 5%

I would like to know more about STO's plans to develop Jeruk and have a more definitive timeframe for appraisal drilling on the Naga Utara discovery than 2013 !!!

The move to add to the board 2 years ago was on the basis that Todd wanted to get the company moving ... well not much exploration or development over 18 months is killing the SP and I fear that this will be the catalyst for Todd to come along and take the company out with a very low ball offer.

At the moment we have a Mcap of M$A93 and M$A38 in cash which values the significant producing assets and exploration potential at a paltry M$A55 ...

NZ alone should be worth in excess of M$A100 ... 2.4M BBL (1P) @ 20$/BBL and 2M BBL (2P) @10$/BBL and 30M BBL (3C) @ 1$/BBL

My 2 cents worth !!!

Disclosure: I own a lot of shares in CUE !!!