CUE-> Pantheon of small oil stocks

[Crypto Crude]

o dusty,
Should Zeus be dry this will be a disaster for MEO because unlike CUE who have Maari, PNG etc Zeus is it for MEO. CUE will not be spared though however bad news is exaggerated in this market and SP will take a hit especially with the continuing pressure of sub 40 Poo

hey o dusty,
I orginally said CUE would have bottomed out around 13cents on Zeus failure because I was expecting a strong run in the sp in the lead up to spud, spud, mid drill, target zone...
The SP did hit 17cents and then it retraced, most likely on the Union issue, and profit taking...
In reality, the SP could do anything on zeus failure... its just to big of a risk to sell... seriously... downside minimal enough if you have an extra few months to wait out the rally (worst case, rally up to 13c if fell to 10c)...
which would be breakeven if got in over the next few days...

If yourve been back paid for all costs spent in the permit, and free carried on an exploration well... and lets say the well goes bad... then Technically the sp should be indifferent as you are now no better or worse off than you other wise would have been had you just sit on the permit and made it look pretty in the glossy annual reports...

in saying that though, MEO have announced recently that they are going to pursue the other two adjacent permits if Zeus is successful...(and they will upon success IMO)
CUE have one free carry in each Northwest Shelf Permit...
MEO said the next well would be within 12 months...
so Zeus is actually very important for the near term future within these permits, and within the region itself... big times ahead...

we either open up a whole new project in our asset class to add to the others, or we stay with the current asset pool, waiting on future developments... past and beyond the current 3 core developments...

I guess we wont really know how the market would react to a likely failure of Zeus... Im quietly confident from what Ive seen, but im pretty hush hush on these sorts of gambles... I pretty much bank on bankables, and take freebies as they come, were just abit lucky to have such a well now free carried and all...
looking for a new rig on Spikey Beach and hopefully free carried spud in a few months...
im more sure of this than anything ive seen... we will have to be patient if Zeus goes bad... At worst case I will have to wait 5 years to get to one dollar share and ride in PNG with OSH, STO, Exxon... and take 100-200% per year from here on in... or get alittle lucky with Zeus or Matariki, and hit it now...
Matariki also looks the goods...

I want it all now... I deserve it...

I will be patient, and quiet... and a realist...
this is risky...
im not expecting anything really... maybe just to prop the sp up for awhile well Maari comes in... hehehe...
catch all my good friends up...
Im feeling great as I always...
peace out...

.^sc

[colinm_au]

HORIZON OIL (HZN): MAARI DEVELOPMENT DRILLING UPDATE – 23 JAN 09
Horizon Oil Limited is pleased to announce that further good progress has been made on the
Maari Oil Field development since the last drilling update provided to shareholders on 29
December 2008. In that update it was reported that batch drilling of the surface holes for the
first three production wells to depths of about 900 m was successfully completed.
The MR3P8 oil production well was then drilled to a depth of 2,052 m and 10-¾” casing run to
2,048 m. A 9-½” horizontal section was drilled over 1,518 m in the upper part of the Moki
reservoir formation, entirely in clean, oil-bearing sandstone. On reaching total depth of 3,570
m, the lower completion assembly consisting of wire-wrapped screens was installed into the
open-hole.
Subsequently the upper completion assembly, containing the electric submersible pump and
sub-surface safety valve assemblies, was run on 6-5/8” tubing and stabbed into the lower
completion. Finally the heat-tube, which is designed to prevent wax deposition in the tubing,
was installed inside the completion string and terminated at the wellhead.
The rig completed operations on MR3P8 at 1800 hrs on 22 January 2009 and skidded to the
next production well slot, MR4P9, where drilling of the 14-½” hole-section is underway.
The MR3P8 well will now be hooked-up to the production facilities, by installing surface
piping, electrical connections and instrumentation, prior to commencing production to the FPSO
Raroa anticipated for later next month.
The Maari Oil Field is located in PMP 38160, in the offshore Taranaki basin, New Zealand. Oil
production will ramp up towards the expected initial gross rate of 35,000 barrels of oil as the
development wells are progressively drilled and turned to the FPSO.

[Crypto Crude]

thanks colin,
that was a very detailed announcement...
great announcement eah...

I thought upon completion of the first well that it would have been connected and put onto production pretty quick smart...
late next month ann said...what the...... sp closed at an embarrasing 12.5c...

what on Earth is wrong here?
I have not misread this company even if Zeus fails...
ARGHggghhhhhhh....

.^sc

[colinm_au]

The reason we are in CUE is because we recognise that the SP significantly undervalues the company ...

The SP is down from 0.165 on Jan12 to 0.125 on Jan23 or 24.2% on a total of only 12,183,992 shares or .55% of issued capital whilst in this period MEO has risen 16.1% ...

Whilst this is disappointing, CUE have a growing production profile that will benefit when the oil price starts returning to more realistic levels in our 'Peak' oil world.

If Zeus comes in CUE's Carnarvon basin acreage could be worth ??? ... Here's hoping !!!

[Crypto Crude]

More good news people...

Taranaki Daily News > Local News > Story Oil workers dispute is settled
By RYAN EVANS ryan.evans@tnl.co.nz - Taranaki Daily News | Saturday, 24 January 2009

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A threatened lockout of 45 Taranaki offshore oil workers has been averted at the last minute.


Offshore Marine Services issued the 45 workers, all Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union members, with a lockout notice almost two weeks ago. It was due to come into effect yesterday.

The lockout notice followed an ongoing dispute over employment negotiations. Yesterday EPMU Taranaki organiser Ross Henderson said a deal had been reached on Wednesday after six or seven days of negotiation.

The deal is still subject to ratification but includes a 5 per cent bonus for the workers upon ratification, a 5 per cent bonus on the first off-take of oil and pay rises ranging from 14 to 20 per cent.

It allows the workers to return to work on the floating production storage and uploading vessel Raroa, which works alongside the Maari wellhead platform about 80km off the South Taranaki coast before the lockout

.

.^sc

[shasta]

More good news people...

.

.^sc

Shrewd can you point me to where CUE says it has 57mmboe (2P).

That's huge if it's the case (i can't work out what 1 BCF v 1mmbo is)

Valuing CUE on the same basis as say BPT, you get...

BPT Market Cap ~760m/145mmboe (2P) = $5.24m per 1mmbo reserves.

CUE Market Cap ~78m/57mmboe (2P) = $1.36m per 1mmbo reserves.

Value CUE @ $5.24m x 57mmboe = Market Cap of $298m or ~47cps

That kind of discount interests me, although BPT already has annual production of > 9mmboe & is on a P/E of ~10.

Need an oiler to throw into the mix, & PPP is to passive for me, & OEL has been a disappointment to date.

[tricha]

thanks colin,
that was a very detailed announcement...
great announcement eah...

I thought upon completion of the first well that it would have been connected and put onto production pretty quick smart...
late next month ann said...what the...... sp closed at an embarrasing 12.5c...

what on Earth is wrong here?
I have not misread this company even if Zeus fails...
ARGHggghhhhhhh....

.^sc

U have not misread the company Shrewd, u have mis-read Mr Market, who is still in a extremely bad mood.

Hence I bailed at a loss, I might add, its a new ball game where the rules have changed. "Cash is King"

1. Maari Oil Field if it delivers CUE will be away.

2. or if Mr Market changes ( I doubt it, this year)

3. or if oil goes up ( I doubt it this year)

4. or Zeus comes in.( a bloody good chance)

There is a lot to like about CUE and I will be back in, in a flash if conditions change.
I just hope I am not sitting at the station watching the ship go past.

[Corporate]

Shrewd can you point me to where CUE says it has 57mmboe (2P).

That's huge if it's the case (i can't work out what 1 BCF v 1mmbo is)

Valuing CUE on the same basis as say BPT, you get...

BPT Market Cap ~760m/145mmboe (2P) = $5.24m per 1mmbo reserves.

CUE Market Cap ~78m/57mmboe (2P) = $1.36m per 1mmbo reserves.

Value CUE @ $5.24m x 57mmboe = Market Cap of $298m or ~47cps

That kind of discount interests me, although BPT already has annual production of > 9mmboe & is on a P/E of ~10.

Need an oiler to throw into the mix, & PPP is to passive for me, & OEL has been a disappointment to date.

I vaguely remember that you divided bcf by a factor of 7? Can't remember...can check up on monday.

But isn't it a bit of a useless calculation anyway....given that gas and oil prices are not correlated?

[Crypto Crude]

shasta-Shrewd can you point me to where CUE says it has 57mmboe (2P).

Ive not seen CUE stipulate the fact that they have 57million barrels 2P BOE... I worked it out myself... I will repost it...

tricha-Maari Oil Field if it delivers CUE will be away.

its not if, its when mate... OMV are the real deal...they will make no mistakes... Last update read very well... Earlier on I thought there might have been some production startup risk because of the fact that the oil needs to be heated up.... But then I read into OMV, and realised just how capable this outfit really is....

corporate-But isn't it a bit of a useless calculation anyway....given that gas and oil prices are not correlated?

It allows us to form one figure instead of oil and gas measured seperately...
it measures volumes rather than value...ie amount of energy contained in one barrel of oil... Its not as if saying you have 1 million barrels of oil means much anyway... crudes come in all different grades and prices...

I tell others that CUE have 300 BCF of gas, 120 BCF here and 30 BCF there and others most probably cant comprehend what that means... by putting it in BOE everyone knows... BOE is an important term... it is often used to by companies for its total output figure...

Investopedia explains Barrel Of Oil Equivalent (BOE)...
This term is used frequently when exploration and production companies are reporting the amount of reserves they may have. By giving a BOE figure, analysts, investors and management can assess the total amount of energy the firm has access to, without breaking it down into barrel's of crude oil, or the cubic feet of natural gas.

.^sc

[shasta]

Ive not seen CUE stipulate the fact that they have 57million barrels 2P BOE... I worked it out myself... I will repost it...




its not if, its when mate... OMV are the real deal...they will make no mistakes... Last update read very well... Earlier on I thought there might have been some production startup risk because of the fact that the oil needs to be heated up.... But then I read into OMV, and realised just how capable this outfit really is....



It allows us to form one figure instead of oil and gas measured seperately...
it measures volumes rather than value...ie amount of energy contained in one barrel of oil... Its not as if saying you have 1 million barrels of oil means much anyway... crudes come in all different grades and prices...

I tell others that CUE have 300 BCF of gas, 120 BCF here and 30 BCF there and others most probably cant comprehend what that means... by putting it in BOE everyone knows... BOE is an important term... it is often used to by companies for its total output figure...


.^sc

Thanks Shrewd

BOE is extremely important for a company producing both oil & gas.

I like & use the term as it's good for comparisons, even though i don't quite understand the mechanics of how it's calculated.