CUE-> Pantheon of small oil stocks

[Phaedrus]

Volume certainly is way above average, UU, with Up-days (green bars) higher than Down-days (red bars). This is Bullish but you do have to watch out for a "blow-off" top. Look back at May 2008 as an example of this. A very steep uptrend hit resistance at high volumes and plunged equally quickly.

[trackers]

Thanks for that Phaedrus, chart looking extremely good..... Looking for a close above 24c to continue the trend upwards!

Should see some drilling updates soon too

[Crypto Crude]

heres a post in my own words, on what you need to know about various aspects of CUE, all packaged into a reserves vs resource debate which has been looming...
I posted this on another forum...
so why not here too...

ok...
Here are CUEs Gas assets...

Kimu 30 BCF
Barikewa 120 BCF
Cash Maple 120 BCF
Oyong Gas 12 BCF
Wortel Gas 12 BCF
SE Gobe 2.5 BCF

are they 2P reserves or just Resources?

296 BCF is alot of gas, worth over one billion dollars for revenue production...(not for sellable production- I will come back to this in a later post)...
all that and everything else for a 170 million cap...
appraisal... exploration... production... development...
very diverse...

CUE state that in all of these projects that I listed at the top of the page, that they are 2P, 2P equivalent, or for SE Gobe there are no 2P reserves (but SE Gobe only makes up around 1% of our gas assets...

The reason why some people class our assets as resources instead of reserves comes down to the definition of these words involved, and whether you can technically classify as a reserve as a reserve (regardless of whether the field is proven)......

There is no doubt about it that our assets are 2P, Probable reserves that are just as likely to produce (50%)...
all our gas assets are discoveries off previously drilled wells, in some cases multiple appraisal wells have been drilled on our prospects...
the gas is there... it is the wording and definition of what makes up a resource, that can pull our proven gas discoveries away from being a reserve regardless of the size of the proven field..

here are a few examples...

Reserves are the amount of oil/gas in place that can be economically extracted... but because costs are not yet known, are they economical? (this is a key point to a resource)
Of Course our PNG assets are economical...
We are not exactly sure of costs, therefore this could be deemed as a resource...

Look at this another way... Our billion dollar assets are so large in revenue terms that all costs are taken care of... forget about costs eah.....

Are our assets resources because they are stranded assets?
well, they are and they are not...
with PNG LNG final investment decision early next year, our previously stranded assets are going to get a great chance of development on the back end of PNG LNG startup...
and we ride with OSH...

So what were stranded assets (even just 6 months ago), are quickly becoming part of a much clearer development path with PNG LNG...

Are our assets resources because the timing to production is not fully known?
well... last year that was the case, but this Year PNG LNG is really ticking boxes off... For the first time ever CUE has Production forecasts for SE Gobe, Barikewa, and SE Gobe gas, in the latest CUE presentation.. page 10...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=319404

This is inline with previous expectations...
Barikewa could be 2014 production....
...

basically these are the main arguments for resources,
are there commercial paths for our assets?
are they mature enough to develop?
timing of production path?
timing of development path?

as there are not exact answers for these questions (and more) then technically we do have resources... this, which has little to do with the actual discoveries, leads me to believe in 2 words...

foresight...
Pedantic...

foresight on what is going to open right before your eyes...
making calls on various projects before they are given Final investment decision, and FEED, so we can profit from reclassification of projects from stranded, to pre development (FDI), through development, and into production...
we profit from the derisking at each step as we strive to capture some, all, or part of 300 BCF worth of production.....
CUE, one of the most conservative oilers on the market, who dont even come out and state that we have BOE for less than $2 per barrel of oil equivalent... who dont even fart in the wind when Zeus comes, (there was virtually no pump)...
we got a spud date ann, a drilling report... and that was about it...
a company who doesnt announce anything unless they absolutely have too...
but yet a company that came out and states that our assets are 2P equivalent...
come on Entropylord....get with it....

2P Equivalent to me means that our assets are 2P but does not meet all the criteria to offically call them 2P (even though they are)
and this comes back to my examples...
timing, mature fields, economical....

We all know that industry standard is for delays at any stage of an oilers cycle... And Im telling you now... there will be no delay with PNG LNG...
Exxon, OSH, STO, Nippon...

CUE has left it up to the market to decide what they think will happen to these assets in time...if they are produceable or not eg.... they have put it on the market, and put it back on me to decide...

so I went away and did my research... and I came back wanting to be a smart arse with a market crash looming...hehehehe....
The first point I came too was that Maari is the value of the company and everything else is free...
straight away I hit the jackpot...and with Manaia...

seconly, I realised that PNG LNG is very big and we have key assets in the region that will be exposed to this...
check out PNG LNG.com... read OSH market reports...
wow this is big...
This is why ive got 90% of my holdings in this...
foresight...

and the other word,
Pedantic...

look at wheather our assets are actual discoveries of 2P status and let all the other minor factors take care of the rest in time...
Finding gas, finding oil is the biggest risk in this game...
Once you have found oil/gas, then the next steps are relatively easier, and more so with abit of patience...

As I have said...
we have an entire portfolio of proven gas assets, it is soon coming up to the time of exposing some of these idle assets and developing them, and that will happen...
read the 2008 Annual report...
...

As for specific assets..
Kimu, Barikewa, SE Gobe come under PNG developments that we have to surely believe OSH will develop after the back end of phase one PNG LNG... OSH has clearly stated they are in time going to develop the entire region...

Cash Maple, Timor Sea 20%
reproccessing of 3D seismic....this is to better define the structure...
also PTTEP took over Coogee resources earlier this year, who was the JV partner in the project...
development paths include floating LNG, methanol production,(coogee technology that has been replicated by MEO, but MEO have no quality assets (as of yet to give final investment decision)...

Oyong Gas, Wortel Gas...
the Indonesian Connection...
24BCF...
Wortel stated as 2P equivalent...
tie in 2010 for production...
I believe these two gas producers are only estimated reserves set out by Santos, and consistant with SPE guidelines...

Gotta have foresight...
I wouldnt be in the position today if I didnt have it...
tried to be cute by holding CUE through a market crash when I knew one was coming... lol... what a fool I was thinking that...
lol...
The delays on Maari production startup have been a good thing even though this was the activity we needed during a market crash to have SOME support at least...
we got none... so the SP fell to 9c...

If everything was factored in before it happened then we wouldnt make the big returns we set out to make, because it would already be valued in the market cap...
eg valuing at production stage if in appraisal stage...


regardless of the technical wording and understanding behind the definitions of classification of reserves vs resource, it is safe to say that we have proven gas fields of 2P equivalent status, and that in time they will come through (PNG surely)... Cash Maple is alittle uncertain as of yet though...
In time we will profit from these development paths for free because the market has continued to value these assets at nothing.... The Market does not understand the real value behind Maari as of yet, but it will in time(maybe due to too little published info on the company and its activities)?...
PNG is long term stuff...
it is 5-6 years until production...

BUT, we have plenty going on right now, next month...
and activites over the next year and beyond to make it a profitable ride until 2015....

a few free exploration wells on the way...
(exploration rippers)...
some tasty appraisals..
and a whole heap of downside support from 1700 BOPD from Maari, and our other producers on that...

Lordolean...,
I will put some basic numbers up soon for you on PNG and Cash Maple in another post...

it is up to the beholder to believe in what they want...
The main issue is not to do with the timing of our assets, or the commercialisation path, because we already have a fair idea on how that is going to unfold.....
it is to do with our assets clearly being 2P reserves...
and for some realisation of that by the market....
and thats that...

All these questions will be taken care of in time...
rest easy knowing our big reserves are all for free, and they are big...
Yeahhh harrggghhhhhhhh.....

minimum hold is for 2 months to factor in all the up and coming stuff that Ive listed in a previous post... and then I decide what to do from there......


would you believe it... Artemis is a side issue...
markets looking at it all wrong... wow...
im excited about that... dont get me wrong...
but im just as excited about bankables that are already in place...
If we hit at Artemis we might get 1.5 TCF to us...
well we already have .3 TCF in the bank...
2P's.... roll with them...roll with Oil Search.... roll with me to one dollar...
yeah hrrgggaaargrggghhhh....

and lastly, theres our oil too...
2.5million rerated closer to 4million on upgrades...
370,000 ongoing from oyong oil...
and 200,000 from SE gobe gas...

Rest up mackdunk...
get your stock picks right in our 2010 stock picking competition...
im expecting more than 7% for one of your three picks...
hehehehehe...

.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

Bermuda won tennis...
I dont exactly remember the score so I wont post it...
two aces to zip though...
the gun...

.^sc

[JBmurc]

Bermuda won tennis...
I dont exactly remember the score so I wont post it...
two aces to zip though...
the gun...

.^sc

I see me PEN are kicking your HTM round atm SC what you like about HTM so much are likely to end up in receivership should have put a bottle of Cardon & Moet on it
think you would have been better putting CUE up against STX (now there's a match up)

[STRAT]

Bermuda won tennis...
I dont exactly remember the score so I wont post it...
two aces to zip though...
the gun...

.^sc

Isnt Super B around twice your age Shrewdy?

[Crypto Crude]

strat,
Super B is 2.5 times my age......

JBmurc,
A wise poster told me some good things about HTM/HGD at the last chch st meeting.....
Talisman funded farmin partner and 5c 10c 15c 20c, but if no partner then I will lose the bet...
That is the tradeoff...
a gamble...
simple as...
see you in Christchurch next year...

.^sc

[STRAT]

strat,
Super B is 2.5 times my age......


.^sc

I know that but I didnt want the Tennis Champ thinking I was rude.

As to the other fella. Not only wize. Charming as well.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=Shrewd Crude;

CUE has left it up to the market to decide what they think will happen to these assets in time...if they are produceable or not eg.... they have put it on the market, and put it back on me to decide...

so I went away and did my research... and I came back wanting to be a smart arse with a market crash looming...hehehehe....


Gotta have foresight...
I wouldnt be in the position today if I didnt have it...
tried to be cute by holding CUE through a market crash when I knew one was coming... lol... what a fool I was thinking that...
lol...

Rest up mackdunk...
get your stock picks right in our 2010 stock picking competition...
im expecting more than 7% for one of your three picks...
hehehehehe...

.^sc[/QUOTE] SHREWDY I hope you dont mind but I cut out all the FA rubbish from your post before replying. Fundamentals are aseless as tits on a bull as both you and SNOOPY keep proving.
CUE bought by you two years ago at 21.6c today 22c= .02c PA return on your share over two years with no dividends to skite about.
SNOOPY long term investor fall in love with the company type does FA analysis like an accountant from hell holds long term everything heading down the gurgler. The point being you might have sold CUE at its best at 29c and bought back at just under 10c in a perfect world during your time on board. The fact that you didnt do better should be a sharp reminder that your systems require a major overhaul. Both you and SNOOPY have one thing in common. Snoppy rubbished me for doubleing my money on MCR in 2007 then getting out the market. You rubbished me for buying MCR in a huge uptrend after getting back in the market, and will fall to a similar fate. I hope you get round to realizing that its the market that dictates share prices.
Learn to read the market first, its that simple. Stick your money in the bank in bad times and punt like hell in the good times. Read the commodoty price charts the good companies follow those up and down ask your good mate Strat he knows that. Even your CUE followed the price of oil you dipstick Macdunk

[bermuda]

Bermuda won tennis...
I dont exactly remember the score so I wont post it...
two aces to zip though...
the gun...

.^sc

You should have seen Shrewdy when he had a chance to win the second set at 5 all. He positively thought he had me on the ropes.
6-1, 7-5, 6-2.
It's an old head for the long road Shrewdy, my young and talented mate.

Cue has a great future. Albers was buying up recently. That was the CUE.... or should I say CLUE.

Anytime Shrewdy, anytime,,,,, but I think I would run a mile if Serpie challenged me.