Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
CAF still holding up there haven't checked others. You back in buying a few FPS Mark?
Hi Joshuatree,

Yes I have been picking up a few FPS near $1.70. It's a frustrating stock that moves in bursts, usually after results and then everyone loses interest for 6 months. They aren't great with guidance either, often very vague. They gave the stock standard line at the AGM that Q1 was ahead of budget and profits were expected top be higher this year. At least they also said it was the result of good inflows. Historical PE at $1.70 is 13x, or looking at cash NPAT it's around 12x with growth forecast for this year. $53m market cap, with $10m cash in the bank. At some stage I expect it will be taken over but that could be years away.

I sold AEF late Sept when it was going up while the market was getting hammered. Seemed irrational so I sold. AEF is very illiquid so you have to sell when there are eager buyers and I didn't expect the market was going to bounce back like it did. Now there is a persistent seller at $42 and sometimes below. They have offloaded plenty but I suspect have a lot more to go. AEF's net inflows have been excellent and Q1 continued this trend so I have bought back. It's a little hard to forecast AEF's profit at the moment as they cut fees by a fair margin but have also taken out a lot of costs. I expect guidance in the coming days/weeks which should give a clearer picture. In summary this is a stock that is experiencing great inflows with NPAT very leveraged to extra FUM.

HFA is my other preference in this sector for reasons I have explained previously. I see even Pie funds has taken a position. I expect a new dividend policy to be announced at some stage now there are no Convertible Notes on issue and they have the freedom to pay out what they please. HFA is a USD business and the AUD is in a downtrend against the USD.

I have a few CAF again but it has run hard since the rights issue at 32c and it's hard to estimate what sort of profit they are going to earn given all the moving parts. I suspect consensus is on the low side and I'm hoping the AGM will give a bit more guidance.

Also have a few TRG for a trade at present. Merger with Northern Lights will see around 50% of earnings US derived.