NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Waikaka]

Will OMV or Beach publish drilling progress reports?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. Drill ship COSLProspector is on on-site and presumably drilling.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais...COSLPROSPECTOR

Yup rig on station and anchored up.

OMV won’t announce anything, they are sneaking the rig around to try and avoid protesters. They never flagged Gladstone-1 which they drilled before it mob'd to GSB.

Beach may announce the results, if we are lucky it might be weekly.

Tawhaki-1 should be drilled quick if they don't have anything unexpected. Super deep water but a relatively shallow hole from the seafloor.

[Waikaka]

I am fan of NZOG, they work hard and Kupe would never have been developed without their dogged tenacity.

You all are deeper in the guts but from what I can see Maari is on its last legs and will not produce significant cashflow from here, Jadestone may or may not get operatorship. Either way it needs a large development program (really significant capex) their current production forecast is:
2020 = 1.46 mmbbl
2021 = .98 mmbbl
2022 = .72 mmbbl
2023 = Abandoned
As we have seen from Tui et al super risky being involved in end of life assets.

Kupe is different with 3P gas of 329 PJ, 3P oil of 49.1 mmbbl. Lots of gas and oil left. Should be a good little earner. While deliverability is down and the future will need more interventions and investment it should be long life and still earn some coin.
I have sat on the fence with NZOG with $110mil market cap and ~$100mil in cash it is cheap buying.
They have lots of cash in the bank but a tendency to spend it pretty quick on dry holes ie Kohakutai et al

I am not at buying yet but a little cheaper and I would be in. Hence starting to kick the tyres

[fish]

Cue and NZOG quote high success rates cause they are the car salesman. It is there job to be bullish. The investor must way up their statements and be conservative.
Regarding BP and improved technology, 3D seismic has been around since the early 90’s and we have gotten better but it is getting harder and harder to find fields. People have drilled off shore for 70 years in Carnarvon. We drill more and more wells to find less and less resources. What we do find is more expensive to develop and often shorter life span. Commercial success in frontier basins will be around 10% which is fine as the payoff is huge.

agreed the payoff is Huge but we do not know the chance of commercial success .NZOG actually quote a 5% chance of commercial success but say it is a gamble worth taking if only a 3% chance !
Ironbark if successful will most likely be a giant with a long lifespan

My opinion if BP are involved there is a minimum 30% chance of commercial success

[mistaTea]

My opinion if BP are involved there is a minimum 30% chance of commercial success

My opinion is that they are expecting around the 30% too.

If it was just Cue and NZO quoting high success figures during the farm in process I would be more sceptical.

But the JV is set up now, and there is no need to bullsh1t anymore (if they were fibbing to start with, that is).

The deal is signed, money secured and we are waiting to drill. I can’t see why Beach would be saying their anticipated odds exceed their 1 in 4 or 1 in 3 minimum now unless they actually meant it.

Perhaps I am being naive - but what would they gain at this stage by overstating the odds given the deal is already locked in?

[digger]

My opinion is that they are expecting around the 30% too.

If it was just Cue and NZO quoting high success figures during the farm in process I would be more sceptical.

But the JV is set up now, and there is no need to bullsh1t anymore (if they were fibbing to start with, that is).

The deal is signed, money secured and we are waiting to drill. I can’t see why Beach would be saying their anticipated odds exceed their 1 in 4 or 1 in 3 minimum now unless they actually meant it.

Perhaps I am being naive - but what would they gain at this stage by overstating the odds given the deal is already locked in?

Agreed mistaTea the odds mean nothing now---let the drill bit do the talking.
Bought another lot recently---will be buying more. Just shows how much credit I give the odds of success at 5% but now down to zero.. I have never taken part in a drill with zero chance of success but then the dry wells were exactally that---zero.

Cheers all let get on with the drilling

[mistaTea]

With the Ironbark drill being scheduled for Q3 2020 - that means they could start drilling anywhere between July - September this year? Most likely at the end of the quarter?

I don't subscribe to Upstream, but it looks like there is a recent article in there that says BP have had to resubmit their Environmental Plan.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/explo...iny/2-1-741857

Anyone on this thread subscribe and can shed some light on what the issue is?

If it starts in September (hopefully no delays), they reckon it could take 70 - 90 days to drill.

With a little luck, Santa will give us a nice Christmas present this year!

[Wiremu]

With the Ironbark drill being scheduled for Q3 2020 - that means they could start drilling anywhere between July - September this year? Most likely at the end of the quarter?

I don't subscribe to Upstream, but it looks like there is a recent article in there that says BP have had to resubmit their Environmental Plan.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/explo...iny/2-1-741857

Anyone on this thread subscribe and can shed some light on what the issue is?

If it starts in September (hopefully no delays), they reckon it could take 70 - 90 days to drill.

With a little luck, Santa will give us a nice Christmas present this year!

MistaTea, from what I can see there is no issue. For the latest at Nopsema have a look at https://consultation.nopsema.gov.au/...division/5084/

This consultation report followed the earlier environmental plan: https://www.nopsema.gov.au/assets/ep...ts/A677874.pdf

Upstream may know something which is not yet public, but not out of the ordinary if you look at Equinor.

There is nothing on Nopsema advising this has to be resubmitted, as has happened with Equinor as an example.

[mistaTea]

Cue Quarterly Report out:

http://www.cuenrg.com.au/irm/PDF/f2e7554f-6c38-4f80-af3f-1abf0bf6a8dd/QuarterlyReportforPeriodEnded31December2019

Ticking along, although this Mahato dispute is somewhat disconcerting! I don't really care who is right or wrong...I just want them to sort it out so we can find out the results of the drill.

[fish]

Cue Quarterly Report out:

http://www.cuenrg.com.au/irm/PDF/f2e7554f-6c38-4f80-af3f-1abf0bf6a8dd/QuarterlyReportforPeriodEnded31December2019

Ticking along, although this Mahato dispute is somewhat disconcerting! I don't really care who is right or wrong...I just want them to sort it out so we can find out the results of the drill.

NZO quarterly report is out today.
To me things are tickling along nicely.
Still over $100m in cash-The market does not appear to value anything else so to me Ironbark is a free gamble on finding a trillion dollar plus worth of gas.
More money spent on researching Ironbark and plans to drill later this year with Ocean Apex.
It is going to be really exciting.

Also got an invitation yesterday as MistaTea had suggested might happen which I have accepted and looking forward to later next month.

[mistaTea]

NZO quarterly report is out today.
To me things are tickling along nicely.
Still over $100m in cash-The market does not appear to value anything else so to me Ironbark is a free gamble on finding a trillion dollar plus worth of gas.
More money spent on researching Ironbark and plans to drill later this year with Ocean Apex.
It is going to be really exciting.

Also got an invitation yesterday as MistaTea had suggested might happen which I have accepted and looking forward to later next month.

Agree with your sentiment fish. Nothing much changed, just ticking along while we await the big drill.

I also received an invitation from Alistair. Have agreed to meet with him at the end of Feb and provide my perspective.

I commend them for realising that we are their business partners - and they do actually need to talk to us before making big decisions. However I am sure they will get a range of opinions, so what they make of it all and how it becomes useful to them planning for the future will be interesting.