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  1. #15881
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    Not sure if any of you subscribe to the AFR.... but I found this:

    https://www.afr.com/business/energy/...0181005-h169kc

    I didn't realise Mr Ofer had bought 40% of Otway from Beach. Very large investment... dwarfs the amount he kicked into the can to acquire his interest in NZO/Cue.

    Though our 'leaders' have no doubt pissed him off recently, he seems to be pretty bullish in terms of gas opportunities down this end of the planet.

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    So dry summer,shortage of gas and increased demand=massive increase in the amount of coal being burnt by Genesis.
    Without adequate future supplies gas we will most likely be burning more coal.
    A hint that we need to foster exploration not ban it.

  4. #15884
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    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    So dry summer,shortage of gas and increased demand=massive increase in the amount of coal being burnt by Genesis.
    Without adequate future supplies gas we will most likely be burning more coal.
    A hint that we need to foster exploration not ban it.
    Nah, we will be sweet. Remember, they have a great transition plan for us...they just need to come up with it first, and then they demonstrate how we have absolutely nothing to worry about.

    Should NZOG need to drop the Barque Prospect, who cares? It's not like 5Tcf of natural gas would come in handy or anything...

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    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/329916

    Pleased to see in the activities report that Ironbark is continuing to progress.

    Interesting blurb about Clipper... "During the quarter the Minister of Energy & Resources advised she is considering exercising her statutory power to amend the work programme in the permit.The Clipper permit is affected because a decision to drill in the permit, or surrender it, must be made by 11 April 2019. The minister’s power can be exercised only with the agreement of the operator. The joint venture has consented to potential extension. At quarter end the minister had not advised a decision."





    I maintain that the only way this permit MIGHT still have a chance of attracting partners with the resources and know-how will be if the government bends over backwards to make assurances (and possibly other incentives) to mitigate Sovereign Risk fears.

    I never thought I would ever think of my own country as ever having 'sovereign risk' as something to worry about by the way.

    An extension (to at least align with Toroa) will definitely be needed...but simply buying NZOG 1 more year in and of itself won't be enough to get this drilled.

    Let's see what Megan Woods does next (but don't hold your breath).

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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/329916


    I maintain that the only way this permit MIGHT still have a chance of attracting partners with the resources and know-how will be if the government bends over backwards to make assurances (and possibly other incentives) to mitigate Sovereign Risk fears.

    I never thought I would ever think of my own country as ever having 'sovereign risk' as something to worry about by the way.

    An extension (to at least align with Toroa) will definitely be needed...but simply buying NZOG 1 more year in and of itself won't be enough to get this drilled.

    Let's see what Megan Woods does next (but don't hold your breath).
    Oil majors are happy to explore in third world countries run by despots because their greed and venality are expected and can be allowed for. For a country with a reputation for sound government to suddenly, without consultation or official advice, ban oil drilling, thats scary.

    My guess Megan Woods will extend the permit. The Coalition Government is under the pump. All any critic of their policy has to do is point at the Huntly Power Station smoke stacks and say the words "Indonesian coal". Existing permits were excluded under the ban a discovery would be the Coalition Governments get out of jail free card.

    I have just had a brain wave. Get Sir Peter Jackson to make a film on the drilling platform. The government can subsidize the drilling with the luvvies film making subsidy.

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn

    PS. If Sir Peter's movie has a part for a shapely blonde, pick me.
    Last edited by Marilyn Munroe; 30-01-2019 at 05:36 PM. Reason: repeat word
    Diamonds are a girls best friend.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marilyn Munroe View Post
    Existing permits were excluded under the ban a discovery would be the Coalition Governments get out of jail free card.
    Yes, that is true. A major gas discovery would buy them enough time to figure out what their transition plan is before the **** hits the fan.

    Though, I was thinking - even if National got back into power next year (and that is a big IF, given they are Nigel-no-mates right now) ... and even if we assume they would immediately reverse Labour's decision...

    From an international standing point of view, I think the damage is done. The Sovereign Risk is there for the foreseeable future now. Any fears by the big BP-type companies would still be there - as they will be wondering if Labour would get back in power again the next term, and whether they would bring back an exploration ban, and what that might mean to any $$$ they had invested etc...

    If only John Pagani could offer some comforting words.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    Yes, that is true. A major gas discovery would buy them enough time to figure out what their transition plan is before the **** hits the fan.

    Though, I was thinking - even if National got back into power next year (and that is a big IF, given they are Nigel-no-mates right now) ... and even if we assume they would immediately reverse Labour's decision...

    From an international standing point of view, I think the damage is done. The Sovereign Risk is there for the foreseeable future now. Any fears by the big BP-type companies would still be there - as they will be wondering if Labour would get back in power again the next term, and whether they would bring back an exploration ban, and what that might mean to any $$$ they had invested etc...

    If only John Pagani could offer some comforting words.
    mistaTea, You have got it spot on. the damage is done as far as the big oil companies are concerned. It would certainly be hard to reverse.
    My thinking is that NZ is stuffed and we badly need a dose of reality---by that I mean we costly import gas as we can not drill for our own.
    I am happy for NZO to do what they are doing and stay with CUE and the ironbank up coming drill---next year hopefully.
    digger

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    Quote Originally Posted by digger View Post
    I am happy for NZO to do what they are doing and stay with CUE and the ironbank up coming drill---next year hopefully.
    Agreed, a discovery at Ironbark would be transformational to the market caps of both Cue and NZO. If 15Tcf of commercially viable gas is there, that would be an absolute game changer.

    Would be a damn shame to miss out on the 11Tcf estimate at Clipper, but that may be the final outcome. Having both in play would have been much more comforting - as if any one prospect turned out to be a non-starter, it would be statistically much less likely that both massive prospects would turn out to be a dud.

    With all the eggs in the Ironbark prospect...if is works out we are all filthy rich - excellent. If not...

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    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA190...ergy-needs.htm

    More propaganda to further strengthen my already-firm beliefs on this topic

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