NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[CD_CHCH]

If OGOG and Dick Tweedie are right, and Ironbark is just a pure gamble with incredibly low odds of success...

Then the current NZOG and Cue CEO's have a lot to answer for in my mind. They have certainly not tempered their effusive comments about the prospect with a healthy dose of caution (i.e. yes it could be huge, but we are 95% confident it will come to nothing...).

The only way the change of heart makes sense is that it helps OGOG pick off the remaining 30% for a song.

The current offer values the whole business at $121M. When you deduct the $76M cash attributable to NZOG directly, that leaves $45M.

So according to Dick and his mates at NZOG and OGOG, the entire going concern plus exploration permits is only worth $45M.

Our share of Cue alone is worth almost that.

Despicable, absolutely despicable.

So here's a random but interesting thought. I wonder what the response from OGOG would be if the minor shareholders were to offer them 62 cents a share to buy them out and take control of the company.....

After all they went to a lot of trouble to tell us how "62 cents a share is a fantastic offer and Ironbark only has a 5% chance of success"

[mistaTea]

So here's a random but interesting thought. I wonder what the response from OGOG would be if the minor shareholders were to offer them 62 cents a share to buy them out and take control of the company.....

After all they went to a lot of trouble to tell us how "62 cents a share is a fantastic offer and Ironbark only has a 5% chance of success"

Yes I did ponder that in an earlier post. If the shoe were on the other foot - would they think it was a great deal?

If we offered them 62c... or even 74c...I am pretty sure they would tell us to take a flying leap!

[Lion]

I have always found life to be much more pleasant when everyone just agrees with me though!

I agree with you.

[Bart]

Mr Tweedie is entitled to his opinion but interesting question as to why he needs to pronounce it to the public at large.

Another more qualified opinion was provided by Peter Strachan, well respected Australian resource company analyst. In July 2019 his calculation of the Risk Adjusted Value of Ironbark per NZO share was $A0.90, and the Discovery Value per NZO share $A6.51. The Discovery Leverage per NZO share he calculated at 1368%.

Does that mean that he judges the chance of success at 0.90/6.51 = ~ 15% ??

[Wiremu]

Does that mean that he judges the chance of success at 0.90/6.51 = ~ 15% ??

No, that sort of formula mixing measures is Northington's nonsense. Peter Strachan provides two different measures, one the value of a NZO share now taking into account all of the risk factors prior to drilling taking place (risk adjusted value), the second if the prospect reached commercial production assuming and on the assumption the proven gas quantity was 75% of the projected maximum (discovery value).

[tim23]

Its all very curious wasn't there something odd when Southern Petroleum got taken over a number of years back and shareholders had a win?

[mistaTea]

Less than 3 weeks now until the Special Meeting (unless they pull the pin earlier).

I believe the Takeovers Panel were beginning to wrap up their investigtion into a range of complaints at the end of last week.

It will be very interesting to see the findings and rationale behind their thinking - hopefully this week some time.

[Sideshow Bob]

And in the meantime, Quarterly Cashflow & Activities report here: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/343328

[RTM]

And in the meantime, Quarterly Cashflow & Activities report here: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/343328

But wait....there’s more
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/343330

Not read it yet !

[blackcap]

But wait....there’s more
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/343330

Not read it yet !

Just a big FU (to shareholders) from the takeovers panel. As expected.