NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[JBmurc]

I get the feeling that Texcal is giving back some of the crap to OGOG through Cue that OGOG gave to the market about the 1 in 20 for ironbark. What I am getting at here is that once you start this funny stuff you never know where it will end or where some form of this twisted thinking will break out next.

Naturally Texcal is right in saying PB-1 is inconclusive and it always will be. The Tue well is also inconclusive and even today you can not say with 100% certainly how much it will produce.



Strange though isn't it that while PB-1 is inconclusive it isn't so all inconclusive that the drilling of PB-2 has to be delayed

inconclusive to how much oil they just discovered and what it will flow at ... 20MMbbls upside target

[fish]

I get the feeling that Texcal is giving back some of the crap to OGOG through Cue that OGOG gave to the market about the 1 in 20 for ironbark. What I am getting at here is that once you start this funny stuff you never know where it will end or where some form of this twisted thinking will break out next.

Naturally Texcal is right in saying PB-1 is inconclusive and it always will be. The Tue well is also inconclusive and even today you can not say with 100% certainly how much it will produce.



Strange though isn't it that while PB-1 is inconclusive it isn't so all inconclusive that the drilling of PB-2 has to be delayed

Hiding and manipulating information seems to be part of how some companies operate.
It is so good that this forum sources information and debates the limited information these companies choose to feed us.
Digger how long have you been invested in NZOG? Thanks for your wisdom whenever I have sought advice(I have done this for at least 12 years)

[mistaTea]

...20MMbbls upside target

I assume you mean 20MMbbls upside attributable to Cue.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12301929

Here we go! Good old Shane 'The Rangatira' Jones trying to distance himself from the greenies and sidle up to the conservative provincial vote leading up to an election.

Sorry Shaney my boy, you didn't say boo when they banned future offshore oil & gas exploration. You literally stood there and said nothing when Comrade Ardern delivered the 'great news' to NZ.

They should have kaiboshed that ridiculous policy just like they did with the CGT. But no, they didn't and soon we shall see if their relationship with Labour and The Greens will cost them votes.

[blackcap]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12301929

Here we go! Good old Shane 'The Rangatira' Jones trying to distance himself from the greenies and sidle up to the conservative provincial vote leading up to an election.

Sorry Shaney my boy, you didn't say boo when they banned future offshore oil & gas exploration. I believe you literally stood there and said nothing when Comrad Ardern delivered the 'great news' to NZ.

They should have kaiboshed that ridiculous policy just like they did with the CGT. But no, they didn't and soon we shall see if their relationship with Labour and The Greens will cost them votes.

Well said MT. I can remember that moment all too well. He just stood there and sold us down the toilet. That and some other things they have not said boo about have ruined NZ First's trust for me. I trust they will lose votes and will go as far and say they will not make the 5% threshold come election time.

[Waikaka]

Followed this thread for a while and thought I might stick my oar in.

Mainly in respect to BP farming into Ironbark and NZOG exposure. Seems like there has been plenty of discussions on what sort of probability of success BP might need to farm in. I can categorically say it is not set at a certain cut off (ie 1 in 2). For example if a prospect that is near existing acreage or infrastructure, they might farm in to a prospect with much lower chance of success. In the case of Ironbark, the development case they may have it tying into NW Shelf JV North Rankine infrastructure built in the mid 80's that is now on low pressure recovery for the last remaining gas. BP is in the NWS JV. I understand the NWS-JV are looking at tolling third party gas through their kit, although as usual the lawyers are doing their best to get the second yacht but it will happen. BP would have interest both ways as tolling party and supplier of gas.

Last time I looked at creaming curves for Carnarvon, I got technical success rate of 22% and ~10% for commercial finds. I figure Ironbark has about that chance.

Personally I like Ironbark and the Carnarvon Basin is a prolific area with about 70% of Australian reserves located off the Nth West coast. Shows are nearby and not ridiculously far from existing infrastructure that has ullage. I love a frontier exploration play and admire Cue tenacity and perseverance with the permit. Just want to flag that best not get too in enthusiastic and if I was valuing Ironbark as part of NZOG I would probably treat it as zero.

Tawhaki and its implications for PEP52717 and PEP55794 will have to wait another day but a success case there is more important to NZOG in my opinion.

NZOG has been in the farmout business for such a long time it is important to not get too caught up in your own marketing hype.

The car has always had one careful lady owner.

[mistaTea]

Followed this thread for a while and thought I might stick my oar in.

Mainly in respect to BP farming into Ironbark and NZOG exposure. Seems like there has been plenty of discussions on what sort of probability of success BP might need to farm in. I can categorically say it is not set at a certain cut off (ie 1 in 2). For example if a prospect that is near existing acreage or infrastructure, they might farm in to a prospect with much lower chance of success. In the case of Ironbark, the development case they may have it tying into NW Shelf JV North Rankine infrastructure built in the mid 80's that is now on low pressure recovery for the last remaining gas. BP is in the NWS JV. I understand the NWS-JV are looking at tolling third party gas through their kit, although as usual the lawyers are doing their best to get the second yacht but it will happen. BP would have interest both ways as tolling party and supplier of gas.

Last time I looked at creaming curves for Carnarvon, I got technical success rate of 22% and ~10% for commercial finds. I figure Ironbark has about that chance.

Personally I like Ironbark and the Carnarvon Basin is a prolific area with about 70% of Australian reserves located off the Nth West coast. Shows are nearby and not ridiculously far from existing infrastructure that has ullage. I love a frontier exploration play and admire Cue tenacity and perseverance with the permit. Just want to flag that best not get too in enthusiastic and if I was valuing Ironbark as part of NZOG I would probably treat it as zero.

Tawhaki and its implications for PEP52717 and PEP55794 will have to wait another day but a success case there is more important to NZOG in my opinion.

NZOG has been in the farmout business for such a long time it is important to not get too caught up in your own marketing hype.

The car has always had one careful lady owner.

Thanks for the comments - great to have a range of perspectives come through. You are right about not getting too excited given the odds of success....though, quite naturally, there is bound to be a certain element of excitement as we approach the date where we spud. The so-called "thrill of the drill".

I can assure you that none of the fellow investors I have had direct conversations with think of Ironbark as a 'sure thing'. Some investors are more bullish than others, sure, but everyone is consciously aware that on a pure statistical probability view...Ironbark is more likely to fail than succeed.

I am not sure where you get the 10% commercial success figure from - and even if I did, it just becomes another pointless figure to argue about. Given the very recent bullish statements from Beach and BP regarding the prospect, I struggle to arrive at 10%. But I could be wrong, and you may know a lot more about the industry than I.

The other part of the equation for the investor is how much he or she paid for their stock. If someone bought in years ago at $1.50...there may be a larger element of praying to all the known gods that this works out so that they don't realise a large loss. If Ironbark fails...unless the prospects of drilling Clipper change dramatically, I think liquidation has to be on the cards.

In my case, I am currently 'on the table' for about 53c/share. So even if Ironbark has high odds of commercial success...let's just say for arguments sake the JV actually believe those odds to be a whopping 30%. That means there is a 70% chance that we will fail.

But that's not the end of the world for me...and hence my strong desire to stick around for the drill. I have bought in at a price that almost gives me a free shot at a truly massive drill. Monish Parbrai calls this wonderful situation "Heads I win, Tails I don't lose - much".

[Marilyn Munroe]

Tawhaki and its implications for PEP52717 and PEP55794 will have to wait another day but a success case there is more important to NZOG in my opinion.

Will OMV or Beach publish drilling progress reports?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. Drill ship COSLProspector is on on-site and presumably drilling.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais...COSLPROSPECTOR

[fish]

Followed this thread for a while and thought I might stick my oar in.

Mainly in respect to BP farming into Ironbark and NZOG exposure. Seems like there has been plenty of discussions on what sort of probability of success BP might need to farm in. I can categorically say it is not set at a certain cut off (ie 1 in 2). For example if a prospect that is near existing acreage or infrastructure, they might farm in to a prospect with much lower chance of success. In the case of Ironbark, the development case they may have it tying into NW Shelf JV North Rankine infrastructure built in the mid 80's that is now on low pressure recovery for the last remaining gas. BP is in the NWS JV. I understand the NWS-JV are looking at tolling third party gas through their kit, although as usual the lawyers are doing their best to get the second yacht but it will happen. BP would have interest both ways as tolling party and supplier of gas.

Last time I looked at creaming curves for Carnarvon, I got technical success rate of 22% and ~10% for commercial finds. I figure Ironbark has about that chance.

Personally I like Ironbark and the Carnarvon Basin is a prolific area with about 70% of Australian reserves located off the Nth West coast. Shows are nearby and not ridiculously far from existing infrastructure that has ullage. I love a frontier exploration play and admire Cue tenacity and perseverance with the permit. Just want to flag that best not get too in enthusiastic and if I was valuing Ironbark as part of NZOG I would probably treat it as zero.

Tawhaki and its implications for PEP52717 and PEP55794 will have to wait another day but a success case there is more important to NZOG in my opinion.

NZOG has been in the farmout business for such a long time it is important to not get too caught up in your own marketing hype.

The car has always had one careful lady owner.

Welcome your view but do not share it for many reasons
Both cue and Beach give much higher success rates and BP would not consider drilling a well with only one in 10 chance success.
You quote historic success rates without taking into account new technology and knowledge.
Recent frontier deep water drilling is producing success rates of 1 in 3 .
You give no value to Ironbark after stating a significant success rate(Ironbark is so big that Andrew Jefferies stated at the agm it was worth drilling as a gamble on a 3% success rate).A lot of things we all do in life is a kind of gamble .This is a gamble with odds and reward having to be taken into account .Its a gamble I like and you do not so I suspect you will not be buying NZO (In contrast I am still buying)

You also fail to mention all the options to get the gas to the best markets.OGOG just happen to be experts at converting old oil tankers into offshore production and storage of LPG.

[Waikaka]

Welcome your view but do not share it for many reasons
Both cue and Beach give much higher success rates and BP would not consider drilling a well with only one in 10 chance success.
You quote historic success rates without taking into account new technology and knowledge.
Recent frontier deep water drilling is producing success rates of 1 in 3 .
You give no value to Ironbark after stating a significant success rate(Ironbark is so big that Andrew Jefferies stated at the agm it was worth drilling as a gamble on a 3% success rate).A lot of things we all do in life is a kind of gamble .This is a gamble with odds and reward having to be taken into account .Its a gamble I like and you do not so I suspect you will not be buying NZO (In contrast I am still buying)

You also fail to mention all the options to get the gas to the best markets.OGOG just happen to be experts at converting old oil tankers into offshore production and storage of LPG.

Cue and NZOG quote high success rates cause they are the car salesman. It is there job to be bullish. The investor must way up their statements and be conservative.
Regarding BP and improved technology, 3D seismic has been around since the early 90’s and we have gotten better but it is getting harder and harder to find fields. People have drilled off shore for 70 years in Carnarvon. We drill more and more wells to find less and less resources. What we do find is more expensive to develop and often shorter life span. Commercial success in frontier basins will be around 10% which is fine as the payoff is huge.